National Conservative | Catholic | Eisenhower and Clarence Thomas Enjoyer | Not Andrew Jackson
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Real Political Data retweeted
Yeah as we expected it seems the urban areas update later in the day. Another 70k ballots have been counted, and it helped moved the votes from 65% Trump counties to 60% Trump counties.
Once again, and you would think we wouldn't have to do this, but this does not mean that voting today was R+28. The only thing you can 100% say is that the votes from today came from redder counties than yesterday, which MAY IMPLY that today's voting was redder than yesterday.
Politico reported a few days ago that both sides believe that Republicans are in a far better situation in the Midwest, and Democrats apparently are trying to damper some of their sky high expectations.
If the reporting is anywhere close to reality, there's a very strong chance the House Majority could actually be decided in Southern Texas and Florida.
Looks like Republicans are showing some life in Texas.
Now, we don’t know for sure who these people are voting for, but it does seem like Republican voters are slowly waking up.
Real Political Data retweeted
Brown's PACs accepted MILLIONS of dollars from billionaire Reid Hoffman, the guy in black in this photo whos right next to Epstein.
Hoffman even went to Epstein's Island, years AFTER everyone knew he was a pedophile.
Leftists always accuse you of doing the stuff they do.
Real Political Data retweeted
Because young people are fickle and Trump realized very early that they wouldn't be a worthwhile vote to cater to for a midterm.
He won them when they were guaranteed to turn out (during a presidential race of epic proportions).
He then catered his entire Presidency to other demographics, and poor analysts screamed at him for doing this.
But the why was always obvious and it's manifesting now.
Young people don't vote in midterm elections.
Even if their preferences shift left, nobody needs to care because they wouldn't show up anyway.
Poor analysts claimed they'd vote left, but failed to realize that the Democrat party was competing with terminal cancer for likability per every poll over 2 years.
So why would low-propoensity voters decide to vote for an extremely disliked political party?
They wouldn't.
Instead, they are absence-maxxing.
Scott Perry winning and Brian Fitzpatrick losing is certainly a poll of our time.
I guess it could happen (retread candidates tend to underperform the second time, and Fitzpatrick is in a more Democrat seat) but still.
Real Political Data retweeted
Members of the Philadelphia labor unions are door knocking on behalf of Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick and Frank Farry Saturday, ahead of Election Day Nov. 3.
Real Political Data retweeted
Ann Arbor, Michigan's first 3 in person voting weekdays: 272 voters per site per day vs. 391 in 2024, about 31% lower. I'm watching MI in person voting to test the redder mail story. Not apples-to-apples. But it's what we've got. This is an earlier MIDTERM opening: 2 campus sites vs. 6 citywide in 2024. No clear IP surge in this Dem stronghold yet.
Real Political Data retweeted
The largest Republican-led county in the country has seen very high Democratic turnout. The next several days will tell whether this reverses or signals a warning for November.
I would say right now the early voting data is extremely mixed for both parties, and there’s a growing chance that this turns into a regional wave of sorts.
Not saying that as a final prediction, but you have places like Arizona looking fairly solid for Republicans, while North Carolina looks horrendous for Republicans.
But, the biggest trend that I believe will tell us so much about the Election will be how the final week of early voting shifts. What I mean is if Republicans aren’t able to meaningfully gain, they’re going to get killed.
At the same time we’ve seen Republicans gain much more than prior cycles, and if they’re able to accelerate that trend, that could make things very interesting come Election Night.
The amount of fake polls being pumped out of the sludge factory is getting quite absurd.
If this poll is off by margins we think they’re going to be off by, there needs to be investigations launched into these garbage polls.
New FactsDriven poll: A one-point race in a district Trump won by 36.
In Kentucky’s 4th District, Democrat Melissa Strange trails Republican Ed Gallrein just 47.4% to 46.5%, within the poll’s margin of error.
Gallrein’s favorability is underwater: 23% favorable, 38% unfavorable. Independents favor Strange 44% to 30%. Meanwhile, 44% of Thomas Massie’s primary voters would consider a moderate Democrat, and 26% of conservatives don’t support Gallrein.
One key detail: These ballot numbers come after voters heard from both candidates, with undecided voters allocated.
Full report: factsdriven.com.
600 likely voters | Oct. 6–20, 2026 | MOE ±4.0 percentage points
This seems like a fairly shitty result for Democrats.
While Landsman likely wins, Democrats if they want to flip Ohio need to be doing far better here (and those undecideds you can imagine probably lean to the Right).
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS OHIO 1ST DISTRICT POLL | October 24, 2026
Our latest survey finds Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman leading Republican Eric Conroy by four in Ohio’s redrawn 1st Congressional District, with Democrats Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton also ahead of Republicans Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy among the same voters, less than two weeks before Election Day.
📊 U.S. Congress Ballot
🔵 Greg Landsman (D): 46.6%
🔴 Eric Conroy (R): 42.4%
⚪️ Undecided: 5.1%
⚪️ Would not vote in this race: 3.9%
⚪️ Another candidate: 1.6%
⚪️ Nathan Weise (L): 0.5%
— Landsman +4.2. With leaners allocated: Landsman 47.6% / Conroy 43.9% (+3.7).
📊 U.S. Senate Special Election Ballot (OH-01 voters)
🔵 Sherrod Brown (D): 46.2%
🔴 Jon Husted (R): 42.8%
⚪️ Undecided: 5.3%
⚪️ Bill Redpath (L): 2.4%
⚪️ Would not vote in this race: 1.9%
⚪️ Another candidate: 1.4%
— Brown +3.4. With leaners: Brown 47.2% / Husted 43.9% (+3.3).
📊 Governor Ballot (OH-01 voters)
🔵 Amy Acton (D): 47.8%
🔴 Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 44.9%
⚪️ Undecided: 3.5%
⚪️ Would not vote in this race: 2.9%
⚪️ Another candidate: 0.8%
— Acton +2.9. With leaners: Acton 48.1% / Ramaswamy 46.3% (+1.8).
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 The Redrawn District
The new map moved OH-01 about ten points to the right, from Harris +7 to Trump +3. This sample recalls Trump +1.6, so the electorate here looks like the redrawn district, and all three Democrats lead on it. Landsman runs about six points ahead of the recalled presidential margin; unaffiliated voters back him by 25.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
October 19–21, 2026 · 561 likely voters · MoE ±4.4
Full report and methodology: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling
Seems like Republicans are growing more optimistic about the Midwest, while panicking more about the Sun Belt (and same thing for Dems, positive about Sun Belt and more pessimistic about the Rust Belt)
Scoop: Both parties just got back new internal polling that shows a tightening map in the core House battlegrounds - as Republicans are still struggling to shore up a raft of redder seats.
Senior Dems are trying to set expectations about how big of a majority they might win. Rs still face serious problems in North Carolina, South Texas and more.
More inside the map w/ @andrewjfhoward >
politico.com/news/2026/10/23…
