A podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.

Joined April 2021
Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
CFTC enforcement chief David Miller told me at @nextpredictio that the agency has scrutinized insider trading cases tied to the 2026 midterms. "We’re watching" and "we’ll come after you" if you're a candidate or campaign staffer doing insider trading. cnn.com/2026/10/22/politics/…
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 22
Former Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) tells Politico that Vivek Ramaswamy should take down Acton ad “The increasing incivility in the political arena should concern us all. This ad is an unfortunate example of that broader trend. It crosses the line. I hope the ad will be taken down and the final days of the campaign will focus on policy differences.”
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 22
#IowaSenate Ashley Hinson calls on Vivek Ramaswamy to take down Acton ad in interview with ABC News. She also called JD Vance's comments "ridiculous" when he defended the ad.
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
I ALSO recently went to Michigan and talked to @AbdulElSayed + voters about his bid to persuade disaffected MAHA voters to come over to his side. Republican John Trocke told me that El Sayed might end up winning him over. My first story for the @washingtonsun:
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
The early vote in TX, OH & more | Garrett Fulce xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1lJQRWbAy…
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 22
#OhioGovernor President Trump writes in lengthy Truth Social post that Vivek Ramaswamy shouldn’t take his ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother down. Calls it very powerful.
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Early vote buffet with the pros
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Listen to Carl. Read his book and paper. It will help with your election trades.
The tldr version is exactly correct as you summarized Assuming a precise and unconditional resolution of undecided (not to mention third-party mind changers) across all election types, states, and various other dynamics is such a basic violation of statistical reasoning lmao
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
New - 2028 presidential poll - National 🔵 Hunter Biden 37% 🔴 Donald Trump Jr. 36% UMass Lowell - LV - 10/4
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
It's funny that so few people listen to Carl on this topic. A large part of the discussion around polling error comes from assuming that undecideds will split evenly when they don't and there's no reason to assume they will.
Replying to @DanRosenheck
It's almost as though "polling error" is a poorly understood phenomenon that requires a fundamental misunderstanding of what polls measure. Treating undecided voters as unconditionally equal across election types (assuming they always split evenly or proportionally) is not sharp
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 21
AP: Senator Jon Husted (R-OH) on Vivek Ramaswamy's ad that featured Acton's estranged mother "I would not have run that ad."
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
On the intellectual decline of young conservatism: "When I worked as a reporter in Washington during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, the ambitious young conservatives were involved in Republican politics at Penn or writing for the conservative student newspaper at Dartmouth...The members of this new generation are more likely to have grown up outside a city like Columbus, Ohio, and to have gone to state school or Christian college. Solheim, a compact, red-headed 29-year-old who is American Moment’s CEO, boasts he’s never admitted an Ivy League alumnus to his organization" They have to be taught to "tuck in their shirts" and "shower daily." Thankfully, low IQ movements are less competent, and I expect these people to struggle in intraparty conflicts once they no longer have Trump to mobilize the less educated among the general public. And if they do take over the right, that's going to be very good for Democrats.
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
For the sitting governor in the same party to say this is a big deal:
NEW: Gov. @MikeDeWine asks Ramaswamy to take down attack ad featuring Amy Acton's mother. "The ad, on its face, is deeply, deeply troubling," he said. "It's wrong to run this ad." However, DeWine says he won't rescind his endorsement of Ramaswamy
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Taking a buyout in a reorg is tough, and freelancing is really tough, but I have two stories publishing later today for great outlets I’ve never written for before, and it’s finally starting to feel like there’s a light at the end of the journalism tunnel. 🙏 if you’ve been laid off or re-orged out lately, hang in there. Keep hustling, it’ll come through.
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Scandals change elections when they confirm what people already thought. Vibes: You might be a scumbag Scandal: You are a scumbag @GaetenD has it here And it's why Vivek is a sinking ship
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 21
Axios: Vivek Ramaswamy doubles down on explosive ad featuring rival's mother, despite backlash Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign for Ohio governor is pouring $4 million into a bombshell ad in which his opponent's estranged mother attacks her daughter — doubling down on the message despite fierce bipartisan backlash. axios.com/2026/10/21/ramaswa…
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Thanks to @mlcalderone for assigning me this story, which turned out to be a wild ride. 🙏 You can read it here: nymag.com/intelligencer/arti…
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
I went to Ohio to write about Vivek Ramaswamy’s struggle with rural Ohio voters… and then he put out the ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother. To many of the state & national Republicans I’ve been talking to, it’s an act of desperation. My first byline in @NYMag:
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Last call for the @GinaHinojosaTX rocketship. LOTTO play that is getting HOT. From our OCT 6 episode: @keendawg: "Abbott is running for his fourth term. I don't think anyone in America wants a fourth term for you unless you're George Washington." Brian: "Gun to my head, she probably doesn't win. There are going to be Republicans who are disgusted by Paxton, but still vote for Abbott. It's just a question of how many." Brian: "I think it's probably worth mid 30s, maybe mid 30s." @keendawg: "I wouldn't want to get into that over 30 cents, but at a 4X multiple, that's a good way to catch a long tail of a good year for Dems." 🔼 33c on @Polymarket 🔽
Polymarket
@PolymarketOct 20
BREAKING: Gina Hinojosa surges to a 35% chance of unseating Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Texas has not had a Democrat governor in over 30 years.
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 21
Republican pollster Frank Luntz, quoted by Politico, on the campaign ad run by Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) featuring his opponent’s mother “This may prove to be the most memorable ad of the entire election cycle. It is devastating. But I would’ve held it until the final weekend of the campaign. With this much time before the election, I fully expect the Democrats to have an equally devastating response.” Link to article: politico.com/newsletters/pla…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Court records and 1978 reports confirm Amy Acton's stepfather was arrested and charged with raping her at age 12; he fled Ohio before trial and was declared a fugitive. Her brother has corroborated the events. Vivek's ad is siding with abusers over a victim. cincinnati.com/story/news/pol… forbes.com/sites/saradorn… mediaite.com/media/news/ram…
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Star Spangled Gamblers retweeted
I've made money trading. I've lost money trading. But the biggest losses weren't always financial. Sometimes it was the time, confidence, and peace of mind I gave up along the way.
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