
Purveyor of the finest shitcos & the very worst takes. Rabid coincidence theorist. Pronouns are BagHolder/Rugged. #NotMiddleClass
Joined April 2020
- Tweets14.2K
- Following504
- Followers633
- Likes39.3K
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Replying to @BBCNewsnight
Here’s what you need to know about Net Zero: Decarbonising the grid is very expensive. Doing so will not impact the climate. Nobody will follow Britain’s lead. It will make your energy bills more expensive on a permanent basis. For every job it creates in the energy sector, it will kill three in the real economy. More importantly, it’s not going to work.
Britain is a “world leader” in offshore wind. It does, occasionally, make an impressive contribution to Britain’s energy supply. But that’s no use if it’s not predictable and if it’s not available when you need it. Supply shortfalls somehow must be plugged. This is becoming increasingly precarious as we’ve dismantled much of our baseload generation. We’re reliant on gas (at times when it’s the most expensive). Grid scale battery storage can cover a few hours at best. But sometimes we have weeks of low wind.
Over the last few years, we’ve had more and more squeaky bum moments. The more intermittent sources you add, and the more baseload you remove, the greater the grid instability, and the more precarious the grid becomes. That means we have to squeeze every last drop of juice from wherever we can get it – be it diesel generators, antiquated coal stations or interconnectors from Europe.
That’s a big gamble. Several countries are making the same bet, outsourcing security of supply to French nuclear – assuming it’s working and assuming there’s a surplus. Last winter was touch and go, and we got lucky because it was a mild winter. But every serious analyst I’ve spoken to thinks next winter could be crunch time. There is great uncertainty about security of supply if we have a cold winter.
Of course, the grid has planned for such eventualities. With no additional capacity to call on, their only option is to ask heavy industry to switch off. And we must pay them to do so. This, though, is a policy failure that harms Britain’s productivity. The grid is supposed to adapt to demand, but instead we’re reorganising the economy to meet the demands of the grid.
At the best of times this would be bad policy. Only this is worse because it coincides with a government drive to electrify home heating and transition to EVs, for which there is nothing like the necessary grid infrastructure. That can only mean rationing by way of price increases. Net Zero advocates claim the solution is to distribute peak demand by way of smart meters, where the less well-off are coerced to rearrange their schedule around the needs of the grid. Put simply, you’re going to pay more for a reduction in living standards.
The average pro-Zet Zero MP, as you’ve probably noticed, is thick as mince. They think wind energy is cheap and green. They haven’t thought at all about whether the grid has the capacity to charge EVs. Thinking is something they do not do. They’re surrounded by know-nothing eco-wonks from the blob, and they believe what they’re told.
There is now serious doubt as to whether a national crisis can be averted. The only interim policy until new nuclear comes on stream in sufficient quantities is to build gas power stations as quickly as we can. But this will be expensive because over fifty percent of the cost of gas is green taxes. They’ve made energy permanently expensive which is why inflation is not coming down.
Since the media isn’t going to do its job, and the BBC will stick to the “clean energy” narrative, it’s up to you to spread the word. Write to your MP. Try to make them see sense. Shout it from the rooftops. Net Zero is the path to economic ruin.
#ClimateScam
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Chief economist at major investment bank PanmureLiberum calls for Ed Miliband to be sacked. @Frencheconomics
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Replying to @respeculator
Me YOLOing shitcos, it going horribly wrong with no chance of recovery, yet inexplicably coming out the other side unscathed, better off & full of an unearned & totally irrational sense of confidence that can only result in me doing the same thing again:
teapaw.org/Nugjokes/status/186260…
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
~150 kbpd m/m US crude production decline in September (200 kbpd m/m from where we initially thought August output sat)
US crude production was at 13.204mbpd in September vs 13.361mbpd in August (revised down from 13.401mbpd) - EIA #OOTT
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Replying to @_NameValue_
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
One key aspect often underestimated in the tin market is how quickly alluvial deposits can become ramp up and get depleted.
Take Thailand, for example. It increased production from 10kt to 35kt over a 15-year period, becoming the second-largest producer globally.
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Replying to @Haggis_UK
This is trivial and irrelevant. Truss told us that we are trapped in a Blairite prison where bankers can coup the elected government, and this is what they ask about? Unreal. The issue is control: they don't get to control the discourse when we are speaking to the politicians.
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Replying to @freelanceshares
Raising equity in a strong market means we don't have to draw down the additional $25M facility from Orion which was earmarked for the Nova contractor payment + working capital
In a perfect world we would've ramped production sooner but things never go that smoothly as an independent explorer-turned-producer. I'd rather do this than add more debt @ 13-15% interest
Previous raises were done at A$2.80, then A$3.30 and now close to A$4.40. We are mindful of dilution and this is a small raise compared to a ~$1B market cap
We'll have around $80M cash to $140M debt, giving us lots of flexibility to ramp up into steady-state and ensure the company is on a good path for the next 20 years
Always happy to chat through any concerns or feedback. As an investor in $ADT.ax myself, I always think to look back and zoom out
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Crazy numbers of subs in the last week, lots of interest on #Namibia and Sintana. Part 2 about Sintana and other companies will be released on Wednesday
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Some interesting snippets from a JPM paper, emphasis mine
#coal not going anywhere #coaltwitter
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Replying to @zerohedge
Follow me for #Tin news!!
I was the first to discover the Indonesian Tin corruption scandal that was the kick start for this squeeze!!
Search my tweets for “GRAND THEFT TIMAH” to get up to date on the Indonesian story
TLDR: 20% of the world’s tin stopped exporting in January
GRAND THEFT TIMAH $AFM
My 1st illegal #tin mining post ⛏️
@OG_TINBARON @TinInvestor @respeculator @Namzes_G @marketplunger1 @calvinfroedge @duediligenceguy @chamath
The only way this stops is with an export ban in June 2024, Corruption happening at every level, village 2 CEO
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures are now down nearly 100 points in less than 10 minutes after March CPI inflation.
The 3.5% inflation print was the second straight monthly increase, the first 2-month jump since September 2023.
It was also the 4th straight month with CPI coming in ABOVE expectations.
CPI, PCE and PPI inflation are all officially back on the rise.
Could we see 0 rate cuts in 2024?
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
Without #tin there is no energy transition or semiconductor industry. But supply is tightening and 90% of reserves are in regions where geopolitical risk is high.
theoregongroup.com/investmen… #tinbaron
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
A few quick notes on Adriatic Metals, $adt.ax:
Went into production in mid Q1, so there is guesswork yet. But, very low cost #silver mine, with a $7.3 AISC in the PFS that likely comes in closer to $10 (guesstimate).
Current mkt cap of $800mn USD.
Mine ramp up ended up being slower than the below (also see later post on LoM and reserves), but FCF should be over $200mn/year at current silver and #zinc prices, even with a higher AISC.
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
“We think that fundamentally this energy transition will mean a higher price of energy,” TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said | #OOTT #climatecrisis #EnergyTransition ft.com/content/5a76f345-5e28…
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
GRAND THEFT TIMAH $AFM
My 1st illegal #tin mining post ⛏️
@OG_TINBARON @TinInvestor @respeculator @Namzes_G @marketplunger1 @calvinfroedge @duediligenceguy @chamath
The only way this stops is with an export ban in June 2024, Corruption happening at every level, village 2 CEO
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
$HTZ
🔸 HERTZ CORP: EXPECTS REDUCTION IN EV FLEET, REINVESTMENT IN ICE VEHICLES TO IMPROVE ADJ CORPORATE EBITDA FOR HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS ACROSS 2024
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
GERMANY ATTEMPTING TO SABOTAGE NUCLEAR IN CLIMATE AGREEMENT
I'm in the Blue Zone; just heard from a trusted source about their conversation this afternoon with a member of the German delegation.
Nuclear was included in the draft Stocktake agreement.
Germany wants it removed.
I'll try to find out more. – at Dubai, United Arab Emirates
ShakeyPremis #TinBaron retweeted
In 2021, I warned that smart meters were going to be used to switch off your appliances when the wind wasn't blowing.
thegwpf.org/publications/sma…
Today, it is reported that this will start to happen in Germany from next year.
euractiv.com/section/electri…

































