Daily Packs: You rip a pack. You get a market position. Starting with prediction markets. The packs experience you already love and now with way to get exposure to financial markets. You can sell back to the market, or hold as the market moves. Suddenly it's two experiences in one. The protocol's inventory is not physical. No added costs for warehouses or shipping.

my software factory uses 5-10B tokens a day 24x @DevinAI SWE-2 Max 6x Codex Astra Ultra 2x Claude Code Fable Max running in @zeddotdev

The PM Scoreboard 005 is live 🔥. The top 10 CFTC-regulated exchanges generated an additional $4.7B in trading volume in Sep 8–14 compared to two weeks ago (Aug 25–31), or +38.3% growth. The top 10 combined for $16.8B in trading volume – more than half of this volume comes from combos, now sitting at a 53.2% share. @Kalshi’s market share fell to 79.5% from 84.9% the week before (and 86.4% two weeks before), as growth from #2 through #7 outpaced the leader. @DKSports keeps charging. DKeX, DK’s DCM, has climbed the rankings from #8 in Scoreboard 003 to #5 in Scoreboard 004 to #3 this week, with $464M in trading volume – $114M above @cryptocom in fourth. On @Kalshi, the first four primetime NFL games saw total volume of roughly $95–$115M each. The most popular World Cup matches saw about 3 to 4× as much trading volume as these NFL games.

NEW: The CFTC has launched a probe into prediction market "mention markets" as a category, where people bet millions on whether President Trump, sportscasters, executives on earning calls say a word or not. Focus of probe is whether this kind of betting is susceptible to manipulation. In response, Kalshi has taken down all mention markets for sports "until further notice" npr.org/2026/08/13/nx-s1-593…

It's net PnL in 2026 for all NY accounts. Guess which one of these the Governor is trying to ban...

President Trump is coming back to Las Vegas next Wednesday to talk about his tax policies, including "no tax on tips." Location and time still unannounced, which means most locals will find out when the freeway stops moving.

MouthPad is a touchpad you drive with your tongue. Now available across the US.

hello there the jacobian conjecture is false thanx to my close friend akhil for asking about it and my other close friend fable for working during the world cup final ((1+xy)^3 z + y^2 (1+xy) (4+3xy), y + 3 x (1+xy)^2 z + 3 x y^2 (4+3xy), 2 x - 3 x^2 y - x^3 z): \C^3\to \C^3, has jacobian determinant -2, and sends (0, 0, -1/4), (1, -3/2, 13/2), and (-1, 3/2, 13/2) to (-1/4, 0, 0)

I hope I'm not going to get my @Kalshi personal account blocked but I've build a Slot on top of their APIs. I can tweak with it to make it more or less volatiles, this very is very low volatility one and with some restrictions but sky is the limit. These are all real transactions with a real account. Kalshi, Please give me access to the Perps API to make the game better. I think we are very close to see these types of experience deployed at scale everywhere. There is also a roulette version inside...

New episode of TRTP where @peanut_bettor fills in for @Sports__Proj and realizes how hard it is to keep a podcast under 2 hours. Some people think we try to make them this long on purpose! Links below

Kalshi's first example of a small business using it as hedging tool is The Jeffrey, an NYC bar that's promising free drinks to all customers if New York Knicks wins NBA Finals Game 1 on Wednesday

Love Matt but…DK’s own hold on parlays runs like 25-40%. They limit or ban anyone who shows skill (which literally is the best part of prediction markets) then funnel casuals into boosted props engineered to lose. Wall Street market makers are tough ofc but at least they don’t kick you off the platform for winning.

You can’t serve an industry without listening to the people on its front lines. Speaking with @FLCattlemen who have relied on our markets for decades only reinforced how important these markets are in helping hardworking Americans manage risk, plan ahead, and keep their operations running.

Recording a show on Prediction Markets later this week. Guests will be @nigeleccles (FanDuel founder), @BigBuckHunterrr (NoVig VP of Trading), @Sports__Proj (DFS player turned big winner on PMs). If you have any questions for the show, get them in by replying to this. Ty in advance.