Not financial/legal advice. Not affiliated with @kalshi (or anyone). RTs are not endorsements. Opinions are my own. ✊🏻✊🏻🚪
Joined April 2026
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A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money.
Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that.
‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link.
change.org/p/ban-prediction-…
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Polymarket had Bolsonaro at 80%+. Lula won.
And guess what? CNN and CBS are now putting Kalshi odds on air for the US midterms.
Polymarket got the Brazilian election completely wrong.
The glorified gambling platform had Flavio Bolsonaro's odds at over 80% all the way up to the day voting took place.
Lula ended up with 51.8% of the vote.
futurism.com/future-society/…
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Q: On the teleprompter issue, NOTUS reported that Kalshi is inaccessible on the wifi journalists at the White House have access to. Do staffers have access to Kalshi and Polymarket on their wifi?
LEAVITT: I'm happy to go try and get you an answer on that
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Ah, if you’re an 18 year old you can now *only* lose $30,000 a year on Kalshi. Because that’s ostensibly not a lot of money for an 18 year old, I guess?
Prediction Market News
@Kalshi limits monthly deposits to $2500 for all traders under 21.
News comes one day after Kalshi and Polymarket land "preferred" PM status with the NBA.
The NBA has long lobbied for PMs to not allow those under 21 to trade.
Under federal law, those 18+ can trade on prediction platforms
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What I think is wrong with Mansour’s article, fundamentally, is that it is not interested in *why* we regulate gambling. It’s not primarily to prevent insider trading of fraud. It’s because since before the Founding, we have recognized that gambling is a vice, and that absent guardrails, participants can and will fall into ruin.
The states do a dubious job at best of handling this, sure. The CFTC has neither competency nor statutory authority to do it at all. And Mansour won’t even kick 18 year olds off his platform, nevermind their addiction risk.
If you act like you’re just another financial exchange, but you sell a product that reliably ruins lives, do not be surprised when that makes you unpopular!
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Kalshi also told federal courts sports-event contracts are the “classic example” of “gaming,” lack “real economic value” or “inherent economic significance,” are unlikely to serve any “hedging” purpose, and “Congress did not want sports betting conducted on derivatives markets.”
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This is the fight we want. Unelected federal bureaucrats claiming powers Congress never granted them versus the sovereign rights of states and tribes to regulate gambling within their own jurisdictions.
.@CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
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The Trump administration sued Utah, asking a federal judge to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction companies. Most of these CFTC lawsuits have been against Democratic states — this one is against a ruby-red, anti-betting state.
.@CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
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Putting aside the optics of a single-commissioner agency issuing rules midstream to align with its own litigation position, these rules will undoubtedly face strong APA challenges on substantive and procedural grounds, including whether the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority.
“The New York Attorney General’s office argues that even if the CFTC finalizes the regulation, it cannot expand the definition of swaps beyond what Congress authorized under the Commodity Exchange Act.” nextpredict.io/market-news/l…
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This is @ChairmanSelig’s last chance to get through the revolving door to a partner at [unnamed law firm] before it hits him @VictorRocha1
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most prediction markets are illiquid enough that building credibility to your lie is quite cheap. military/intelligence institutions already do this for attack date markets for example
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Prediction markets aren’t probabilities. If I enact a network of bettors on a candidate, this doesn’t mean the candidates probabilities have increased. I have simply astroturfed the public perception. And that is what the political prediction markets have devolved into. Pretending otherwise is intellectually dishonest or downright deceptive.
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“The CFTC’s recent rulemaking is emerging as an issue in prediction-market cases around the country, as Kalshi and other exchanges urge courts to delay decisions pending rulemaking or rely on the agency’s evolving definitions to support their jurisdictional arguments.”
Heads: “We are replacing broken polling with real-time truth.”
Tails: “Read a math book, a 1% outcome happens 1% of the time!”
Pick a lane. Kalshi is either an authoritative forecasting tool or a sportsbook with some disclaimers. I’ve never seen a business model where you get to pick according to how you feel that day. 🇧🇷
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Is it a violation of journalistic ethics for a journalist to wager on a prediction market on a race they are covering? My answer is, absolutely yes.
91%Yes
9%No
211 votes • Final results
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This is how you boil a frog. Pay off enough big accounts so the normalization feels organic until the whole timeline turns into paid-for noise.
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Big tobacco next please!
The NBA is formally stepping into the prediction markets ecosystem.
The league announced agreements Monday morning with Kalshi and Polymarket that will allow the companies to use official league data and intellectual property and give the league control over what trades the companies are allowed to offer.
nyti.ms/4smgsfG
