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Not financial/legal advice. Not affiliated with @kalshi (or anyone). RTs are not endorsements. Opinions are my own. ✊🏻✊🏻🚪

Joined April 2026
Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)Photo by PM Receipts (@TheStackOS)
A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money. Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that. ‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link. change.org/p/ban-prediction-…
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Campaigns have company: Kalshi sent this mailer out this week with “races to watch in Texas.” #txlege
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Talk about timing. Today, 37 states filed an amicus curiae brief backing Utah against Kalshi in the 10th Circuit. Notable omissions: Texas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Missouri, which just sent C&D letters to multiple prediction-market platforms.
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Kalshi are morons for not stopping service to Utah while appealing lmao
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I mean it’s objectively funny that prediction markets have painted a picture that it’s Democrats from states with casinos coming after them, but it’s a Republican state with no gambling being the most aggressive.
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Kalshi and Polymarket gave millions to political groups, including $2.7 million to Republicans. Trump Jr. has financial ties to both. Now Trump's CFTC is suing states to block enforcement against their industry.
THE CFTC CUT BACK ENFORCEMENT. NOW IT'S SUING STATES TO PROTECT PREDICTION MARKETS. Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders gave at least $5 MILLION to political groups this election cycle, including $2.7 million to Republicans. Trump Jr. has financial ties to BOTH companies. The CFTC is fighting state enforcement against the industry. Tuesday: It sued Utah. Wednesday: Utah filed 14 criminal counts against Kalshi and its founders. A REGULATOR WITH SHRINKING ENFORCEMENT OPERATIONS IS GOING TO COURT TO SHIELD AN INDUSTRY WITH POLITICAL CONNECTIONS. WHOSE INTERESTS ARE ITS PRIORITIES SERVING?
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I’ve worked in New York racing and gaming policy for about 15 years, including as past-chair of NYGA, and I watched the state build its sports betting system piece by piece. Licensed operators verify bettors are 21, answer to the Gaming Commission, and pay a 51% tax that mostly funds public schools, totalling $1.3B last fiscal year. Kalshi and Polymarket take New Yorkers’ sports bets without a state license and without paying that tax. Every school district in New York has a stake in whether that continues, whether or not anyone there ever places a bet.
Michael Kane in @CrainsNewYork: Licensed NY sportsbooks require bettors to be 21+ and pay a 51% tax that mostly funds schools, $1.3B last year. Kalshi and Polymarket take the same bets with no state license or tax. The AG says Kalshi lets 18-year-olds bet. crainsnewyork.com/opinion/co…
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Bad news for the CFTC: Its federal lawsuit against Utah has been reassigned to U.S. District Judge Robert J. Shelby—the same judge who denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction and entered final judgment against Kalshi on the merits. No lifeline for Kalshi there.
Possible next steps: - CFTC seeks an emergency TRO or preliminary injunction to block Utah’s criminal action in its separate case vs. Utah. - Kalshi and its co-founders seek emergency relief from SCOTUS pending resolution of the 10th Circ. appeal and forthcoming cert petition.
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The shamelessness is pretty wild but I guess that's what you'd expect of folks with basically unlimited resources and an army's worth of lobbyists hard at work making this state of affairs permanent
🚨 Kalshi's @mansourtarek: “When customers lose, they don't lose it to me. They lose it to another customer.” Unlike sportsbooks, which profit when customers lose and have every incentive to encourage it.
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Tonight’s newsletter is about prediction markets and elections and “accuracy” and “calibration” and the perils and pleasures of probabilistic forecasts theatlantic.com/newsletters/…
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When Kalshi gets slapped with a 10 billion dollar lawsuit and declares bankruptcy and this app can go back to normal
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If thus doesn’t hit you as one of the most dystopian things imaginable… think about the consequences for future generations. For the sons and daughters of people who become helplessly addicted to gambling…. A world where everything is financialized…. Everything is commodified…. Nobody makes a move without figuring out how to profit from it… Every corner of the economy becomes another prediction market, another bet on what might happen, another opportunity to make quick money… What happens to long-term thinking? To developing a thesis, committing to an idea, and spending years doing the work to make it happen? What Kalshi and Polymarket are doing goes far beyond the fight over state and tribal gaming laws. And the CFTC under @ChairmanSelig is actively fighting state efforts to regulate these markets and to further fuck over native Americans My concern is that they are breaking down the incentives to work and create things in America. Keep allowing these companies to grow this way, and think about what happens to the next generation of entrepreneurs, dreamers, and builders… People who want to change the world and improve it, whose attention, money, and ambition get sucked into betting on outcomes. Why spend years building something when you’re constantly being sold the idea that you can make the money you want by betting on whether someone else succeeds? The harm reaches way way beyond the person placing the bet. It reaches their family, their children, and everything they might otherwise have created…think about the young men this fucks up… And the advertising makes it worse. These platforms accept people as young as 18, including young adults who cannot legally use conventional sportsbooks in many states… @schwartzbWSJ and The Wall Street Journal has already reported that Polymarket paid creators to stage fake bets and fake wins… Think about what that teaches someone just entering adulthood about money, work, and what is worth pursuing… I believe the cumulative harm will be far greater than people currently recognize… The losses will include businesses never started, ideas never pursued, families damaged, and years spent chasing the next outcome instead of creating something that lasts… That is how this can destroy the very things that make a society worth living in. And that is the point. \rant
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets. The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market. Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings. These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone. Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives. Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts. Think about what that opens up. An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues. Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving. Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact. The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
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Fuck Kalshi and its role in elections.
Who will win the House? Trade it on Kalshi.
Link preview

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Schultz signed a short-term contract to serve as an out-of-house adviser to Kalshi, a second person familiar with the matter said.
News: Kalshi has tapped Obama adviser Eric Schultz, I'm told, as its users forecast Democrats winning the House and Senate. semafor.com/article/10/28/20…
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The same week the NBA announced its new prediction market deals, Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders for allegedly breaking its gambling laws, while Reuters reported the CFTC is investigating Polymarket to see if it broke its 2022 enforcement agreement.
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Prediction markets appeal, addict, & endanger young lives—just like sports betting. It’s gambling. Calling out from the casino in your pocket. Pitching kids, problem bettors, all of us. It cries out for regulation, just like gambling. nytimes.com/2026/10/28/opini…
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Criminal charges vs. Tarek Mansour:
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Prediction markets offer sports betting. But they don’t follow state gambling laws. No one is above the law. We won’t rest until we stop them from violating our laws and taking advantage of our residents. njoag.gov/wp-content/uploads…
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> “we’re not like the sports books!” > constantly create misleading player safety policies just like the sports books do
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“Just like we did in Arizona” may not age well. If the Ninth Circuit vacates the CFTC’s preliminary injunction—as expected if rehearing en banc is denied—Arizona could be back in play for criminal enforcement.
Statement from a Kalshi spokesperson on Utah bringing criminal charges against the company’s co-founders: “This is a crazy overreach; Utah is clearly playing politics. We look forward to putting a stop to this in court, just like we did in Arizona.”
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BREAKING: Utah has filed felony and misdemeanor criminal charges against prediction-market platform Kalshi and two of its top executives, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. abc4.com/news/local-news/uta…
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