Not financial/legal advice. Not affiliated with @kalshi (or anyone). RTs are not endorsements. Opinions are my own. ✊🏻✊🏻🚪
Joined April 2026
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A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money.
Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that.
‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link.
change.org/p/ban-prediction-…
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Polymarket had Bolsonaro at 80%+. Lula won.
And guess what? CNN and CBS are now putting Kalshi odds on air for the US midterms.
Polymarket got the Brazilian election completely wrong.
The glorified gambling platform had Flavio Bolsonaro's odds at over 80% all the way up to the day voting took place.
Lula ended up with 51.8% of the vote.
futurism.com/future-society/…
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Q: On the teleprompter issue, NOTUS reported that Kalshi is inaccessible on the wifi journalists at the White House have access to. Do staffers have access to Kalshi and Polymarket on their wifi?
LEAVITT: I'm happy to go try and get you an answer on that
It’s almost like Bill is paid for by the prediction markets but I wouldn’t be so bold as to say that part out loud
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Ah, if you’re an 18 year old you can now *only* lose $30,000 a year on Kalshi. Because that’s ostensibly not a lot of money for an 18 year old, I guess?
Prediction Market News
@Kalshi limits monthly deposits to $2500 for all traders under 21.
News comes one day after Kalshi and Polymarket land "preferred" PM status with the NBA.
The NBA has long lobbied for PMs to not allow those under 21 to trade.
Under federal law, those 18+ can trade on prediction platforms
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What I think is wrong with Mansour’s article, fundamentally, is that it is not interested in *why* we regulate gambling. It’s not primarily to prevent insider trading of fraud. It’s because since before the Founding, we have recognized that gambling is a vice, and that absent guardrails, participants can and will fall into ruin.
The states do a dubious job at best of handling this, sure. The CFTC has neither competency nor statutory authority to do it at all. And Mansour won’t even kick 18 year olds off his platform, nevermind their addiction risk.
If you act like you’re just another financial exchange, but you sell a product that reliably ruins lives, do not be surprised when that makes you unpopular!
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Kalshi also told federal courts sports-event contracts are the “classic example” of “gaming,” lack “real economic value” or “inherent economic significance,” are unlikely to serve any “hedging” purpose, and “Congress did not want sports betting conducted on derivatives markets.”
Great opportunity for FOIA requests here regarding any activity Selig has done on the prediction market topic during his tenure. Would love to see the ethics clearances he would have had to have received in order to take all these actions.
How much is the U.S. government spending on litigation efforts to protect a Trump affiliated business?
Most parents still consider their 18 year old teenagers “kids”. Why do you allow 18 year olds to gamble again?
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This is the fight we want. Unelected federal bureaucrats claiming powers Congress never granted them versus the sovereign rights of states and tribes to regulate gambling within their own jurisdictions.
.@CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
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The Trump administration sued Utah, asking a federal judge to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction companies. Most of these CFTC lawsuits have been against Democratic states — this one is against a ruby-red, anti-betting state.
.@CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
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Putting aside the optics of a single-commissioner agency issuing rules midstream to align with its own litigation position, these rules will undoubtedly face strong APA challenges on substantive and procedural grounds, including whether the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority.
“The New York Attorney General’s office argues that even if the CFTC finalizes the regulation, it cannot expand the definition of swaps beyond what Congress authorized under the Commodity Exchange Act.” nextpredict.io/market-news/l…
