🇪🇺I explain strategy, incentives and power in politics, finance, and tech. Research: scale invariance in Game Theory/System Dynamics. Fix the money.

Rome, Italy, Europe, World
Joined November 2022
Every evolving natural system follows fractal dynamics, and the most common fit is a power law: A) Ideas Networks; B) Metabolic Networks; C) Economic Networks; D) Bitcoin Network.
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The fact that Brazilian markets panicked and crashed the three times Lula was previously elected (and are doing so a fourth time now), only to boom during his terms in office, poses a real challenge to the efficient market hypothesis.
$EWZ crashing 27% pre-market
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Rivers and mountains share fractal geometries, and both exhibit power law regularities in their observable properties. In 1957, John Hack, studying rivers and streams in Virginia and Maryland, measured the length of each stream and the area of land draining into it, known as its drainage basin. He discovered that the length of a stream, from the smallest brook to the mightiest river, is approximately proportional to its drainage area raised to the power of 0.6. There is some variation around that exponent, but, as Hack himself wrote, "the general regularity of the relation is nevertheless remarkable". As a matter of fact, the relationship appeared to hold regardless of the geological or structural characteristics of the terrain. It was later confirmed across a broad set of river networks around the world. Mountains exhibit similar regularities. The relationship between differences in elevation and horizontal distance in a mountain range can also be described by a power law: typical elevation differences increase approximately as distance raised to the power of H, known as the Hurst exponent (or roughness exponent). In real topographies, H often varies between 0.4 and 0.8, depending on the landscape, the spatial scale considered, and the interplay between tectonic forces pushing mountains upward and erosional processes, such as rainfall and glaciers, wearing them down. There are also statistical scaling laws governing the areas of islands and certain mountainous regions, notably Korčák's law, stating that the number of islands or geographical regions with an area greater than a given threshold tends to decrease according to a power law as that threshold increases. Different landscapes, different physical processes, yet remarkably similar mathematical regularities and scale invariance in observables and global geometry. New ideas are needed in this field. [Pic 1: Dry streambeds in Yemen.] [Pic 2: A river network in South Korea, near Seoul.]
October snowfall turns the Alps white 🇨🇭🇦🇹🇮🇹 Switzerland, Austria, and Italy
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When are we going to start saying the obvious? There's a genuine European spring happening between all the bad news and hybrid warfare. Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Serbia, Hungary and Belarus before that. Everyone in Europe wants to be part of something we take for granted. Support them and start believing.
They did it! The students won! Serbia 🇷🇸
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I think I can formalize how the political version of the Byzantine Generals Problem is being solved through the coordination game of European nations.
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Here how inflation would look by computing it as we did in the '90s and in the '80s.
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Financial repression is the way to go for central banks now. I find it unlikely that the Fed and the ECB will hike rates this week. Hard times coming for small and fragile currencies.
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I find it quite absurd that the US spends more public money per capita on healthcare and education than any other country in the world, while at the same time having the highest number of people heavily indebted because of healthcare and education. The US public sector has been completely captured by lobbying. People are slaves waiting to wake up. This country cannot exist without being extremely wealthy, and it will find itself very weak and with very low resilience as soon as the wealth abundance of the past 150 years is gone. Not around the corner, but still, history is infinite for everybody, and nothing is eternal.
. Public education spending per young person varies dramatically across regions In 2025, average public education expenditure per school-age individual (0–24) ranged from €220 in Sub-Saharan Africa to €9,025 in North America and Oceania (in 2025 PPP euros), a gap of almost 1 to 41. Europe spent €7,433, East Asia €2,941, and Latin America €1,823. The world average stood at €1,642. Using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity would make these gaps even larger. Source: World Human Capital Expenditure Database and Bharti et al. (2025), @WIL_inequality
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Second round between an ageing lefty leader, a bit pro russian, with some dubious friends ; and a far right leader who inherited the party from daddy. The far right is favourite but the left still hope a last minute rally from centrists (Pic unrelated, it's about France)
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8/9 Restructuring global manufacturing needs raw + financial energy, supply chain shifts, and a strong mil industry: to contain CN's growing ambition over TW, spread influence, and revive high-tech strategic production in dev countries. Expect ahead many deals in these sectors.
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Replying to @jack
bitcoin is the moat
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Belgium has gone from rapidly closing and destroying its entire nuclear fleet (half of its power before 2023) to quickly relicensing and returning a few of them to the grid because the Belgian Government is smart enough to understand that energy security trumps energy transition.
Need a crumb of hope about Europe on a Saturday? Belgium has gone from rapidly closing and destroying its entire nuclear fleet (half of its power before 2023) to quickly relicensing and returning a few of them to the grid. PM @Bart_DeWever is trying to save as many as he can.
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Perhaps this week we will get rid of Vučić, one of the most squalid figures in European politics of the new millennium, who has humiliated his great country and his continent on a daily basis. There's a long way to go for the tortured country of Serbia, and I have no illusions that the next government will solve everything. But I hope it can be the first step towards the future, rather than another step back into an elusive past that is increasingly devoid of dignity.
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België en @ENGIE_energie zijn erin geslaagd de kerncentrales Doel IV en Tihange III in een half jaar volledig te reviseren, alle veiligheidsprocedures te doorlopen en weer op te starten. Terwijl sluiting gepland was. Dat is een applausje waard, vindt u niet? #grafiekvandedag
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Roofs and flags in Rome.
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🇮🇹 Questo 👇
I motivi delle proteste in un grafico
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Terna: consumi in forte ripresa e pressione termoelettrica: Il bilancio energetico mensile pubblicato da Terna evidenzia una ripresa della domanda industriale ed elettrica nazionale (+6,5% a settembre, 27,8 TWh). Nonostante i record di generazione del fotovoltaico (+20,5%) e dell'eolico (+7%), la forte contrazione dell'idroelettrico e l'impennata del fabbisogno hanno imposto un ricorso intensivo alla produzione termoelettrica a gas (+11% a 14,1 TWh), sostenendo le quotazioni del gas naturale al PSV.
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We’re adding long press on like to send someone $1 via 𝕏 Money
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Bitcoiners will win.
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People would ignore strategic incentives and facts to listen to Trump and the various puppets of American propaganda. A defeat for the world, the win for the US. We live in the American century. The amplification of their propaganda by foreign analysts is the most humiliating evidence of it.
The US is willing to betray its closest allies in Europe, a market of 450 million people and an economy worth nearly $20 trillion, just to cut shady, corrupt deals with Putin's Russia, an economy roughly the size of Italy's. What an absolutely insane foreign policy.
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Hexagonal growth in a black olive tree.
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