Specialty analytics terminal for $SPX, equities, ETFs & crypto. GEX, options flow, dealer positioning, perps and macro. https://xitter.cf/t.co/qHscwZqCqH
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Joined September 2023
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short thread on what's inside:
1/5
$BTC
boring NY session, OI is building while spot CVD has been positive through the range, mainly from buying on Binance. some spot selling on Coinbase but nothing major
options leaned defensive through NY, around +$1.6m net puts bought while calls were net sold
some of the bigger flow was further out too, including decent Dec 72k put buying while 90k Dec calls were sold
front IV has cooled back off, but skew is still around +3%
Contracts push the risk onto the neoclouds
Hyperscalers locked in take-or-pay
Neocloud deals are cancellable and depend on the neoclouds raising financing
If AI demand cools, or Anthropic loses big enterprise clients to OpenAI, neocloud credit could crack
Pre-NY Positioning
$SPY / $QQQ / $IWM are all short gamma going into the new week, while positioning underneath is pretty mixed across single names.
big week for macro too + if Anthropic's S1 comes out in 30 mins it's gonna be fun
durable goods tomorrow, FOMC Wednesday, then GDP + PCE Thursday.
big earnings mixed in as well with $MSFT / $GOOGL Wednesday and $AMZN Thursday.
plenty of stuff on the calendar this week
$BTC New Week
Friday's move lower was mostly a long unwind, then spot kept bleeding through the weekend while OI stayed pretty flat
not much leverage has rebuilt behind the move so far.
options are still paying for downside into the week though, 25d skew around +3% with put IV well above calls
Pre-NY Positioning
downside hedging picked up pretty broadly yesterday.
$SPY / $QQQ both had net put buying, but it was more obvious underneath.
$MU / $META / $AVGO / $AMD all saw pretty heavy put demand, while $NVDA had a lot of call selling too.
still some upside flow mixed into $QQQ, but overall the tape leaned a lot more defensive
$BTC
moved lower through NY with OI adding behind it, looks more like fresh shorts than another long unwind.
front-end downside vol is properly bid again too, 25d skew around +4% with put IV well above calls into today's expiry.
pretty different to a few days ago when the front end had basically stopped paying for downside.
gm
$BTC
NY move higher had a decent amount of OI added behind it, but that has started unwinding through asia session
binance spot CVD has rolled over pretty hard since the highs, while longs are getting taken out and shorts haven't really added much
front-end downside vol is getting bid again too, 25d skew back around +2% with put IV above calls.
just looks like spot selling into some late longs unwinding
Pre-NY Positioning
yesterday's index flow wasn't overly defensive, $SPY was basically flat on puts with some net call buying.
underneath it was a bit different though, $QQQ / $NVDA / $TSLA / $META all had decent net put buying.
still some upside flow mixed in too, especially around $QQQ.
so hedging is still getting added in pockets, but it isn't really broad risk-off positioning
orderflow just got an upgrade on the terminal.
- tick-by-tick replay, rebuild any candle trade by trade with footprint and CVD. try for free on ETH
- live liquidity heatmap behind the candles, walls pulled and eaten, icebergs, sweeps
- a real order book + DOM ladder, pull/stack with fills excluded
- gamma walls, the flip, max pain and liquidation clusters right on the DOM rows
- alerts on walls, icebergs and sweeps, straight to telegram
live now on BTC and ETH
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