Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz) header
Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz) profile picture

Remote-native Agile Product-lead; @flux_garden for digital garden hosting; SimplestThing; NetworkEnlightenment, Progress. Also at @billseitz@mastodon.social

60142
Joined March 2007
Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)Photo by Bill Seitz of FluxGarden (@BillSeitz)
Thread of Product Management tweets, perhaps biased toward early-stage...
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
every startup needs their ai-pilled chronically online forward deployed cracked gtm distribution engineer
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
I realise I’ve been a little glib with my “I reject the premise of mastery learning.” I’ll explain a little here. Long tweet, strap in. After WWII, psychologists rejected the dominant paradigm of psych at the time, which was “behaviourism”. The big idea of behaviourism is that you were not allowed to look into the inner workings of the human mind. The young psychologists of that era felt trapped. It took a young researcher named Noam Chomsky to attack the eminent behaviourist BF Skinner, paving the way for the next paradigm. Chomsky argued that behaviourism wasn’t enough. It couldn’t explain the natural capability of children to learn language. In order to explain that phenomenon, we have to look inside the mind. The young psychologists were finally set free. (The legendary psych George Miller later said he felt elated, leaving one of the early conferences of the revolution). The paradigm that they introduced is one that is still dominant today. This paradigm is called “cognitivism.” But I want you to imagine that you are a young researcher at the time. You were finally set free. You could look into the human brain! But … how? You feel unmoored. You knew that the behaviourists held their views because the psychologists before THEM looked into the human mind and made shit up — these were Freud and Jung, and they were now widely seen as kooks. So you didn’t want to fall into the same trap. What do you do? In this post war period, the technology that was starting to be declassified, that was starting to spread in universities, were computers. What were computers? They were information processors. They took inputs and transformed them into outputs. En massed, the cognitivists turned to computers as their organising frame. The human mind was surely a computer! Turing defined a Turing machine as a man following a set of instructions, after all. Surely the human brain was also an information processor! ALL of our learning research comes from this paradigm. Anders Ericsson’s mentor was A.I. pioneer Herbert Simon. As a young postdoc, Ericsson did a landmark book on thinking aloud protocols with Simon, and then he went off into the wild, seeking tenure. He began to think: “how do people get good?” And armed with his thinking aloud protocol, and in need of tenure, he went to the places where it was easiest to see how people got good: traditional music conservatories. We now know this work as “Deliberate Practice”. What is the core premise of DP? The core premise of DP is that you will do simpler exercises until you can solve most of them (as assessed by a test). Then you move on to more complex material that builds on those simple exercises. As a by product it is inferred that you will create the “right” mental models, automatically. We do not need to probe what, exactly, those mental models are. Why does it matter? You are given a set of inputs, you produced a set of correct outputs. This sure sounds like a neural network, doesn’t it? This is the information processing paradigm at work. Meanwhile, the US military began funding work to figure out how to improve decision making. This later turned into work to accelerate expertise. These researchers were applied psychologists primarily. They were not beholden to information processing as a paradigm. Many of these psychologists (and Gary Klein especially) did not care what paradigm they used, so long as it produced results. What they found was something very interesting. Experts were experts because the mental models they constructed were very different from novices. They were also different from journeymen (those who are good not great). But most importantly, they found that the same training could produce both great and good people. In other words, the mental model you construct when you are doing training MATTERS A GREAT DEAL. This is the major flaw of deliberate practice, and mastery learning. Being of the information processing paradigm, it assumes that everyone, given the same inputs (problem sets) will construct the right mental models to solve maths problems. But this is clearly not the case. Most of us think that maths is a computation problem. Those of us with high ‘g’, or raw intelligence, will do well and speedrun any mastery learning program. Then at some point they will hit a wall where the computations become too hard, and they will crash and burn. But there is another way. A small group of people realise that actually you can create mental representations (or visualisations) that make maths problems solvable using intuition. The limiting factor becomes how creative you are in coming up with these mental representations. If you are very very good, you will come up with representations that allow you to see things and solve things that nobody could before. These people become Fields Medallists. As for the military funded psychologists (whose field is called Naturalistic Decision Making, so let’s just say NDM) what did they learn? They learnt that if you guided the construction of the “right” mental model directly — that is, whatever mental model the experts in the domain have — then you can skip the high volume of practice demanded by DP/mastery learning, and get to journeyman level at an accelerated pace. This is what is meant by accelerated expertise. This is what the US military uses. There are many many many more implications of this paradigm. It throws into question the usefulness of IQ as a construct. It throws into question the possibility of ‘far transfer’. And it (incongruously) explains why DP retards the development of adaptive expertise, and any method that improves adaptive expertise will also accelerate overall expertise (as the NBA is now beginning to learn, given their adoption of Constraints Led Approach as a replacement for Deliberate Practice style drills). I’ll write a series of essays covering the implications later. But make no mistake: this is a paradigm shift almost as large as that of the behaviourists -> the cognitivists.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
In fact it challenges the very premises of IQ as a construct. (Something Bessis has tackled: davidbessis.substack.com/p/a…) So you can see why I’ll need to write a series of essays. The difference is more fundamental than first meets the eye.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
I’ll need to finish a series of essays first. Much of education research is built around an information processing worldview. (Ericsson’s mentor was Herbert Simon). All the accelerated expertise work funded by the US military is not. This explains the bulk of the differences.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
would love to see — and would be happy to facilitate! — a convo between @justinskycak x @ejames_c on "how you build expertise" i suspect their philosophies are actually complimentary and it's more about allocation & sequencing, but would love to hear where they land
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Every AI company is trying to fully automate AI research; to allow the AIs to build the next AI. This is called Recursive Self Improvement (RSI). OpenAI says they are on track to do so by March 2028. Anthropic employees say they are on track to do so by 2027. The METR report below suggests they are likely right. This is a bad idea given current technology. Any mistake or misalignment in current AIs could be multiplied in each generation. We don't get another election before AI companies reach this threshold. Congress should ban RSI, this year if possible. This is a remarkably consensus opinion, supported in various versions by: -Bernie Sanders -Steve Bannon -Ralph Nader -Glenn Beck -Republican and Democratic attorneys general -Whistleblower Daniel Kokotajlo -Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio -Humans First -Open Markets Institute -Ezra Klein -Arvind Narayanan (a Princeton computer scientist known for arguing that “AI is a normal technology”) The exact mechanism can be debated. The ban doesn't have to be permanent either (see below for both). This is not the only thing we have to do in regards to AI, far from it! But it is urgent. Congress must ban RSI.
Since August, a team within METR has worked with internal Anthropic information to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development. We are now publishing a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
And further we can clearly see the weird twisted logic Anthropic attempts that somehow despite the fact they're making some of the most powerful and dangerous AIs, none of the risk comes from them and they're actually reducing it (while pushing the race as fast as possible)
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
🧵The lawyers here really held @DarioAmodei's feet to the fire and it's interesting to see how he squirmed under oath about AI extinction risk. Under penalty of perjury he's reaffirmed his belief that AI is the greatest threat humanity has ever faced.
Dario Amodei testified under oath that he didn't know his home address
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Worth reading. Dario says that one of the ways that Anthropic can justify remaining at the frontier (with the associated risks) is because the company is effective at pushing for strong AI regulation. I think Anthropic's track record here is more complex than he implies.
🧵The lawyers here really held @DarioAmodei's feet to the fire and it's interesting to see how he squirmed under oath about AI extinction risk. Under penalty of perjury he's reaffirmed his belief that AI is the greatest threat humanity has ever faced.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Good for Nvidia’s board for doing an investigation. But Jensen’s behavior is only half the story. The biggest problem remains unaddressed: the Department of Commerce has enacted policies—at the encouragement of Jensen, and which the MSS reportedly sought as well—that allow China to continue to access the most advanced Nvidia chips, including via Megaspeed. @CommerceGov leadership knew that Jensen was sleeping with a Chinese spy and that Megaspeed was a Chinese cutout, but still actively opposed any policies to tighten export controls on Nvidia chips. Why? Commerce could have blocked chip shipments to Megaspeed the moment it found out that it was run by a Chinese spy, but it did not. Commerce has also refused to enforce regulations—which ironically remain on the books—that would require exporters to apply for a license to ship large numbers of AI chips to untrusted entities in many countries, which would prevent China from using shell companies like Megaspeed to buy controlled chips. And Commerce has done nothing to cut off China’s remote access of controlled chips, or its ability to buy controlled chips in the United States. Why is Commerce protecting Jensen and supporting his preferred policies even though it has known for months that Jensen was sleeping with a Chinese spy? Why is it STILL doing so? Obviously Nvidia needs to take significant steps in its operations, security, and policy advocacy to ensure it takes national security concerns more seriously. But it is even more important that the Department of Commerce tighten up export controls to prevent things like this from ever happening again. It is utterly baffling that despite being privy to this information for months, they have not taken even the most basic actions to protect the country, such as cutting off a company that is literally run by Chinese spies from buying AI chips. By the way, as of this writing, Nvidia STILL lists Megaspeed as a “regional cloud partner” on its website.
Breaking News: Nvidia opened an investigation into Jensen Huang, its CEO, after he acknowledged to the company’s board that he had been intimate with a business executive who U.S. intelligence determined to be a Chinese spy. nyti.ms/3ViPMAt
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
This dude just posts weekly updates in a gigantic running google doc and it has a higher signal to noise ratio than almost anything I subscribe to.
I just published my weekly reflections: docs.google.com/document/d/1… Infinite papercuts. Absorb or abstain. The Software Reformation. Trust as earned expectation. AI Spandrels. Having to believe to see. Arm's length software. Social vibecoding. The edge of criticality.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
today I discovered a walking route to work that’s 2 minutes longer than the maps default, but takes me past a park, beautiful architecture, and a street full of cafés and life. such a huge upgrade to a journey I make every morning I want Alive Maps, a version of Google Maps that optimises for beauty, serendipity, and aliveness instead of speed
🤖 Made with AI
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Q: Will you approve wind turbines? TRUMP: No I will not Q: Well that's part of this permitting bill TRUMP: It hasn't been fully negotiated. Wind turbines are a major loser.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Watch for "We had absolutely no idea that a 10-20% worldwide allocation of chips to Singaporean companies was being diverted to China. How could we have possibly guessed that. We must have been deceived by an intelligence operation."
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
FWIW I think the proper focus of attention is "Intentionally diverted X% of compute to China in a fashion designed to obscure this, in the interests of China and against that of U.S., while being blessed by individuals responsible for and/or influential in U.S. policy."
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Describe dreams?! WHY? Bessis says it's a huge part of the 'mathematical experience': the ability to describe something only you can see in your head. Bessis is laying the groundwork to TALK ABOUT THE REPRESENTATIONS in his son's head, when he starts learning maths.
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
Here’s the optimal variant. Insert the human into the orientation phase, not the decision-making phase, of an OODA loop. If you approach it that way, continuous human presence inside an autonomy OODA loop is not only possible, but optimal.
The three properties of machine warfare – speed, observational breadth, and persistence – DO NOT accelerate a human-centered kill chain. They make continuous human presence inside it non-viable. Machine OODA: One way to frame the resulting change in the battlespace is something like OCDE: observe–compute–decide–effect. Compute takes the place that human orientation once occupied, turning raw observation into action at a tempo, scale, and duration humans cannot match. Hesitation does not alter the physics; it only delays acknowledgment of a change that has already occurred. "In the future fight, advantage will go to the side who can see first, who can understand first, decide first, and act first, and along the way be a learning organization.”
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Bill Seitz of FluxGarden retweeted
You’re told that sub-institutional is the way to go, because everyone operating in that playground is so stupid. Which is true. But your mistake is thinking stupid means opportunity.
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