valentin

🚨 $BTC Long-Term Update: The Wave B Trap Is Done. Wave C Is Loading 🚨 As promised, here is my long-term update, and nothing has changed. We have accurately predicted every target since 2023. We nailed BTC at $43k, $50k, $60k, $73k, $48k, $82k, $89k, $99k, the $126k blow-off top, back down to $60k, the wave A low at $58k and the wave B relief rally into $87k 🎯. The blow-off top I called for over a year at $118-130k printed at $126.2k on October 6, 2025. I told you that after wave 5 a massive corrective would follow, and that is exactly what has played out, wave by wave. In June I wrote: "Wave A is dragging us into the demand region, then I expect a wave B relief rally back toward the supply region (the trap that turns everyone bullish again), before the impulsive wave C takes us lower." Thirteen days later wave A bottomed at $57.8k. Wave B then ripped 51% straight into the supply zone and topped at $87.4k on September 21. And yes, it turned everyone bullish again. That was the trap. I care about my community, not the noise. I do not get paid for these insights, they are my own opinions. Most so-called influencers are not traders, they flip their bias with every candle and sell you a VIP group. The same crowd that was calling for a supercycle at $126k is now calling the bottom at $75k. In this channel we show different scenarios with different probabilities, and we stick to the plan until it is invalidated. Macro Overview Recap: Same backdrop I have posted since 2022, and now it is playing out in front of us. I have always said: once traditional markets, especially the Nasdaq and S&P 500 tech complex, correct, Bitcoin follows. On November 5 the Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2020, down more than 6%, as the midterm result triggered an AI regulation scare and chipmakers crashed (AMD -17%, Micron -14%, Nvidia -8% intraday). BTC dropped from $81k to $75k the same day, tick for tick with tech. Spot BTC ETFs bled roughly $1bn in five sessions. Rate cuts are not coming to save this market. The Fed held in October with two members voting for a HIKE, inflation is still sticky and yields are elevated. Headline jobs look strong (+165k in October), but under the hood long-term unemployment is now the highest share of the jobless since 2021 and U-6 jumped to 7.9%. That is what late cycle looks like: strong headlines, cracks underneath, and risk assets priced for perfection. This is a liquidity and rates story, not hopium. If you haven't already, check out my macro analysis on the recession, it is essential before diving into the charts. Recession: teapaw.org/DailyCryptoTrad/status… Bitcoin Charts Analysis: Elliott Wave Theory: My EW count has been spot-on since late 2023, from the wave 5 top into the corrective wave. Wave 5 topped at $126.2k. Wave A took us down 54% to $57.8k. Wave B retraced into the supply zone at $87.4k, a textbook B retracement of A. Now I am counting wave C, the final and usually the most painful leg of the ABC. The first structural confirmation is already here: this week BTC broke below $75.0k, the September 15 low and the last higher low of the entire B rally. A weekly close below it confirms the B structure is broken and wave C is underway. From here I expect C to unfold impulsively in five sub-waves (yellow path on my chart). Sub-wave iii is the strongest leg and targets the mid-$40ks, cutting through my $52k target on the way. Then a relief sub-wave iv back toward the $55k area (0.65 Fibonacci at $55.3k), which will fool a lot of people into thinking the bottom is in. Then the final sub-wave v into the $31k zone, the 1.618 Fibonacci at $30.5k, where wave C completes. Targets stay where they have always been. This is the massive ABC corrective I have mapped since 2023, with Fibonacci targets at $52k and $31k, and a full cycle low in the $25k-$38k band depending on the structure (the 2.0 extension sits at $24.1k). A deeper $17k-$25k flush (2.618 at $16.5k) is only my extreme recession or black swan extension. On my chart wave C completes around mid-2027. This takes time to finish the structure. Don't be surprised by sharp relief rallies along the way, they are corrective, not the reversal. Invalidation Points: This scenario could be invalidated if: Markets reset or correct cleanly over the next 1-2 years. Geopolitical tensions or wars are avoided. A recession is avoided. No black swan event occurs. Structurally: a weekly close back above the $87.4k B top means wave B is extending, not done. Only a reclaim of the $126k cycle top in a clean impulsive five invalidates the corrective count completely. Until then, every bounce is corrective. It is YOUR job to protect your capital. Weekly Chart: • Structure: five straight weekly lower lows since the $87.4k B top. Downtrend intact. • Volume: the B rally was a squeeze, not real demand. $63k to $79.5k in three days in August, and the final push into $87k came on lower volume than that breakout. Weekly volume is now running well below its 20-week average. Classic corrective rally. • RSI: 49, on track for the first weekly close below 50 since the August breakout. Neutral to bearish. • RSI Stochastic: bearish cross, rolling over after nearly two months pinned in overbought. • MACD: lines still above 0, but the histogram has shrunk five weeks in a row and the lines are closing in on a bearish cross. Momentum is fading from the top, not building. All weekly indicators are turning over at the same time, right under the supply zone. Daily Chart: • RSI: 37.8, below 50. Bearish. • RSI Stochastic: below 50. Bearish, trying to curl up but no confirmation. • MACD: bearish momentum below 0, and the November 4 attempt to turn failed immediately. • Volume and price action: bullish divergence. Price made lower lows ($76.3k on October 30, $74.9k today) while the daily RSI made higher lows (34.4 to 37.8), and the selling volume on the new lows is lighter than in the October 29-30 sell-off. This divergence is the kind that gives a relief bounce, not a trend change. It is sub-wave detail inside wave C. Liquidity and Liquidation Heatmap Insights: This is the part nobody else shows you, straight from DCT Alpha data. And it has been accurate: on September 25 I flagged a $51M Hyperliquid long at $81k, and on October 8 it got wiped 🎯. Right now the map is lopsided. Within 10% of price there are roughly $505M in long liquidations below us versus only $148M in shorts above. That is 3.4 to 1. The first wall sits right under price at $71-75k (~$367M), then $67-70k (~$218M), $62-64k (~$189M), $59-60k (~$127M) and a pocket at $50-52k (~$146M, including a single $23M long cluster at $50,950 on Hyperliquid alone). Notice how that $50-52k pocket lines up with my $52k EW target. The 6-month liquidity heatmap tells the same story. The brightest resting liquidity on the entire chart sits at $66-67k, left untouched when we squeezed from $63k to $79k in August. Unfilled liquidity is a magnet. Where that resting liquidity ($66-67k) and the liquidation clusters ($67-70k) overlap is my first major downside magnet. Upside is thin: $76k first (~$45M), then $79-82k (~$86M). The heavier short pockets only sit at $87-88k (~$120M, right at the B top) and $91-92k (~$184M). A relief bounce can tag $79-81k, but the real short fuel is above the B top. The divergence nobody is pricing in: sentiment is in Fear (F&G: 28), yet the crowd is buying the dip with leverage. The Binance long/short account ratio is at 2.92, the most long-skewed reading of 2026. Open interest in coins on Binance and Bybit climbed from ~148k BTC in mid-October to ~167k BTC while price fell, and funding is still positive. The November 5 flush took the ratio down to 1.39, and one day later it was back at 2.92. During the B rally the crowd was short (ratio around 0.9-1.3) and got squeezed up. Now they are long into a falling market. That is not capitulation, that is fuel. Bottoms form when longs give up, not when they double down. Conclusion: Nothing has changed in my long-term view, and the market keeps following the plan: wave 5 top, wave A, the wave B trap, and now wave C. Along with traditional markets, I expect all risk assets to keep correcting, and the Nasdaq just gave us a preview. My macro view stands: the S&P 500 can drop 30-50% and BTC 70-80% from the top before we find a true bottom and real gains begin. From $126k that puts the cycle low in the $25k-$38k band, exactly where my Fibonacci targets have pointed since 2023. For the short term, price is sitting right on top of the $71-75k long wall. The daily bullish divergence can give us a relief bounce toward $79-81k first. Use it to manage risk, not to chase. A daily close below $74k starts eating into the wall, and below $71k the next magnet is $66-70k. The heavy liquidity is below, sentiment is fearful but positioning is crowded long, and the structure is a downtrend with relief bounces until proven otherwise. Follow the liquidity, not the emotion. The map is live in DCT Alpha (link in bio) if you want to read these levels yourself. In summary, the market is full of probabilities, not certainties. Although our targets have been accurate so far, future outcomes are never guaranteed. This analysis is meant to guide your understanding, but always verify and strategize based on your own judgment. Real question for you: does the $66-67k magnet get filled first, or do the late longs get one more squeeze into the $87k shorts? Drop your level 👇 I read and reply to the sharpest takes. #bitcoin #recession

Tomorrow I will update my long term $BTC TA, but so fare it been following my Elliot wave to the teeth since 2023 from the very top to the corrective wave and only handful of people done the same...