Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Another tech CEO gets it on datacenter locality. This time $ARM CEO @renehaas237. He nails it.
The US doesn’t have a labor or even time to build advantage and can we built outside the US. Most companies planned to build here to appease the administration, the promise to remove barriers, and in a few cases, latency.
Put the barriers up and these will get built outside the US. And all the manufacturing jobs and taxes with it.
FAFO.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Barrons has rumoured $MU will repurchase potentially 100bn$ of its shares in 2027. Todays market cap is 768bn$ representing ~13% of its entire market cap!
The current approved amount is 35bn$ = ~ 5% repurchased in one calendar year.
Significant buybacks start Dec 9th, 2026
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
The market is treating a Dem sweep as an existential threat to AI infrastructure. It’s not.
Data centres can (and already are) being built outside the US. Hyperscalers have major footprints and active expansions across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Canada and LatAm. Power, speed of permitting and cost drive site selection more than pure US policy.
If domestic buildouts slow, capital will simply reallocate. Global AI compute demand doesn’t disappear because Northern Virginia or Texas gets harder to permit. Latency-sensitive training prefers concentrated clusters, but inference, regional capacity and a large share of workloads work fine abroad.
The nutty part is the indiscriminate selling of the whole growth stock complex. High-quality, FCF-positive AI names and infrastructure software companies with multi-year visibility are getting lumped in with pure high-beta, negative-FCF builders that actually do have financing and execution risk.
Policy friction in one country ≠ the end of the AI buildout.
International optionality is real.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Q3 was a powerful reminder of how far we’ve come in less than a decade. But equally clear of the massive opportunity still in front of us
In 2018, we had 650,000 members and one primary business. Now, 17.1 million @SoFi members use 26.7 million products. We delivered record adjusted net revenue of $1.4B, record adjusted EBITDA of $470M and raised our outlook through 2027 for $6.4 billion in revenue $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $1.28 billion in Net Income a 20% margin and $0.90 in EPS
Our conviction has never been greater. We’re still early in SoFi’s journey, and our ambitions for the future remain as bold as ever.
Thank you to our members and clients for trusting us to help you get your money right.
investors.sofi.com/news/news…
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
ATTENTION ALL $ORCL BEARS. 🚨
THIS ONE'S FOR YOU! 🐻
This might be the most RIDICULOUS valuation disconnect in the market.
Valuation: Less than 15x forward earnings.
Backlog: $664B vs. $382B market cap.
Revenue: Nearly 50% of backlog expected to be recognized within 3 years.
But here's the REAL question:
Can Oracle finance its MASSIVE AI expansion without drowning in debt?
Bears point to rising debt, CDS spreads, enormous CapEx, lease obligations, and OpenAI's financial risks.
So I built a detailed financial model through FY2030 and examined EACH of these concerns.
My projections suggest a path to SIGNIFICANT deleveraging and cash flow growth, even with elevated CapEx.
The numbers tell a VERY different story.
Full thesis below. 🧵👇
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Remember who owns 30% of $FOUR and look where he sits. This guy is a winner and enjoys winning. When in doubt remember that.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
$FOUR some key takeaways of the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference:
• 2H growth algo implies 9-13%, clearest read on durable growth ahead
• Guide cut mostly FX + Middle East disruption (baked into Q3 only, Q4 impact NOT yet in guidance)
• FCF conversion (~60% of incremental EBITDA) still holds
• New $300M account-to-account acquisition closes last gap in payment modalities
• Leverage at 3.7x, trending to low-3s by YE, hard ceiling 3.75x
• CFO's own take: sector trading near GFC-era lows on PEG despite durable recurring revenue — calls it a market disconnect
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
$FOUR
Reminder that Shift4 Payments is trading at NTM EV/Revenues of 1.6x, EBITDA 7x and FCF 6x based on analysts' estimates. Also forward 2-Yr Rev. CAGR is +18%.
It's being priced as a low-growth payment company when based on the guidance it should be considered as fast-growing.
Currently there are three main bear theses but we should see green shoots in 2027. Let me explain why:
1) High Debt, currently at 4.1x gross leverage. With all the macroeconomic uncertainty the odds are 50/50 between a rate hike or holding steady for the September 16 FOMC meeting.
But the company says the pro forma leverage is 3.7x and they expect to delever to its long-term average of low 3s by year-end.
Also as you may know there was a refinancing event on July 8, 2026 where Shift4 extended the revolver's maturity to 2031 and raised an incremental $1 billion Term Loan B. Management was explicit that the primary purpose is to prefund the August 2027 convertible note maturity, effectively terming out the whole capital structure into 2031–2032.
2) Guidance cut, company reduced guidance basically due to the higher interest expenses affecting the EPS and FCF execution. This is directly linked to point 1, the higher interest expense from this new debt impacted the guidance as well as the war in the Middle East. The war is a temporary headwind, and the interest expense increase has already been priced in while the company has gained more visibility on the debt maturities.
3) Integrations and business execution. Regarding Global Blue integration, management flagged that they are deliberately building out local sales infrastructure country by country to pursue the SMB retail segment Global Blue historically underserved (Shift4 One is now live in 12 countries, on track for a 15-country year-end target). This is "more expense than gain" in 2026 and an investment year, with the payoff and synergies expected in 2027.
Then on execution, management said that Shift4 can grow meaningfully without adding any new customers by continuing to integrate acquired businesses and deleting the parts that are no longer needed. Then on top of that, add the new customer acquisitions.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
“We chose Shift4 because the team understood how our business works and was willing to build around what we actually need.” — Jens Frandsen, CFO, Sol og Strand
For Sol og Strand, that means faster settlement and simplified payments across more than 7,000 Danish holiday homes — keeping the transaction process in the background and the focus on the guest experience.
Learn more: shift4.com/news/sol-og-stran…
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Buying opportunity. $FOUR
$FOUR Q2 actuals were strong, core biz and cross sell progress/FY27-28 story on track. Temporary weakness from ME headwinds/FX in the guide doesn’t change that.
A bit incensed at the lack of discussion of the M&A mentioned in footnotes, it better be good considering opportunity cost of buybacks here or storing that cash on the b/s. But at the end of the day the stock is far too attractive to sell here given the inflection that is coming into next year. I still trust the mgmt team to allocate capital, and the move down to this extent is disconnected from fundamentals. 🤷🏽♂️
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
$FOUR just filed a new 8-K: they upsized their new Term Loan to a massive $1 BILLION and extended their revolver to 2031.
We were talking about a $112M cash surplus before, but now it is a lot higher. This should absolutely scare the shorts.
You are up against a management team that already spent $600M buying back shares at a $62 average.
With the stock currently sitting around $50, and a management that is obsessed with ROI, this massive new cash pile sends a very clear message. 🐂🔥
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Reminder: Beyond 2026, Shift4 $FOUR should grow faster than the market because it is exposed to integrated payments, has differentiated vertical software/products, and can cross-sell payments into acquired customer bases.
Also, incremental FCF conversion is still around 60%, which should drive 100–200 bps of annual total FCF conversion improvement as EBITDA grows.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
BREAKING: US oil prices crash below $81/barrel after Pakistan announces that the US and Iran have reached a peace deal.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
The space economy is no longer a concept. It's a market. And Shift4 is helping to power it.
We power recurring subscription revenue for @Starlink's global satellite network.
We process crypto & stablecoin payments for @BlueOrigin spaceflights.
Today, as @SpaceX makes history on Nasdaq, we're proud to be the infrastructure behind this industry's commerce — from orbit to your doorstep.
Congratulations SpaceX!
$FOUR 🛰️
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Oh man, Lefty’s a $FOUR bull. Might have to load the boat now. Definitely not financial advice and I’m (mostly) kidding.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
BREAKING: 🇨🇳 China's court just ruled companies can't fire workers only to replace them with AI.
Beijing is warning firms that putting profit over jobs could carry penalties, especially when it comes to young people.
Read that again. The country racing hardest to win the AI race just told its own companies to slow down.
You can't automate a human out of a job purely to cut costs.
China has high youth unemployment and a slowing economy. A wave of AI layoffs would devastating.
So Beijing is doing what it always does.
Stability first. Efficiency second.
The "AI replaces everyone" trade assumes nothing stands in the way. Beijing just stood in the way. By decree.
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
Artificial intelligences do not undergo experiences, do not possess a body, do not feel joy or pain, do not mature through relationships, and do not know from within what love, work, friendship or responsibility mean. Nor do they have a moral conscience, since they do not judge good and evil, grasp the ultimate meaning of situations, or bear responsibility for consequences. They may imitate or even simulate, but they do not understand what they produce, for they lack the affective, relational, and spiritual perspective through which human beings grow in wisdom. #MagnificaHumanitas
Mr. Bertrand retweeted
I've been deep in the $FOUR Q1 10-Q, and it shows the narrative @tlaubers and team keep reiterating about deploying capital opportunistically.
Note 20, subsequent events: in May 2026, the board authorized including the Company's Preferred Stock ($FOUR.PRA) in its outstanding November 2025 buyback program. $400M auth still live. Preferred trades at $52-53 vs $100 par.
Possible outcomes if management deploys against the preferred:
– retires up to 7.5M preferred units (72% of outstanding) at $53
– saves up to $45M/yr in dividend cash, boosts adjusted FCF directly
– prevents up to 9M shares of forced dilution at May 2028 conversion (1.2224 max ratio at current common price)
– captures ~$355M of par-discount, which makes the Global Blue deal cheaper in retrospect (~$1B of the purchase price was funded by this preferred)
– likely forces conv arb funds to unwind their delta hedge, mechanically reducing common short interest
– compounds: saved dividends fund additional common buybacks over the next 2 years
Quick math: $400M at $53 preferred prevents 9M future shares plus saves $45M/yr in dividends. Same $400M at $41 common retires 9.7M shares, but the preferred dilution still hits in 2028 (12.7M new shares). Preferred path leaves Shift4 with fewer shares at conversion AND more cash.
caveat: $FOUR.PRA is thinly traded, so meaningful deployment likely requires a mix of open-market accumulation and privately negotiated block purchases with major holders
Possible outcomes if management deploys against common:
– retires ~9.5M common shares at $42
– preferred dividends continue at $63M/yr through May 2028
– full 12.7M shares of preferred dilution hits at conversion
The next 10-Q in early August will show what @tlaubers and Chris did. Honestly wouldn't mind if they extended the buyback auth and took out all the preferred while it's still cheap.
$FOUR
