Ark Quant

Dry Run for tonight Combine top 25 offenses and defenses faced by Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, and Texas Tech ≈ 8. There’s several just outside the top 12 that have faced significantly tougher schedules and are a smidgen behind 3-4 of the top 12 teams who haven’t faced anyone. Not just SEC, either. Wake Forest has faced two teams who currently have winning records. Ole Miss, Houston, and USC have each faced seven.

24-Team CFP, Run on the Last 2 Seasons 4-team CFP (2014-23): zero 2-loss teams ⬇️ 2025 / 9-3 Texas, Michigan + USC in. 8-4 Iowa too 2024 / 9-3 Bama + Ole Miss, 10-3 Clemson in Both years / 19 teams with 3+ losses in #CFB #HookEm #GoBlue #FightOn #Hawkeyes #RollTide #HottyToddy

Added in Strength of Rush Offenses Faced …New Mexico has faced one Top 50 Rush Offense while Utah State has faced four Top 25 Rush Offenses.

QB EPA/dropback vs. pass defenses faced & remaining (national ranks, all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10) 🎯 TESTED & PROVEN • USC: #2 vs. the #1 schedule (5 Top 25 faced, 2 left) • LSU: #4 vs. #11 (4 faced, 2 left) • Florida: #12 vs. #18 (2 faced, 1 left) • Ole Miss: #18 vs. #8 (2 faced, 1 left) • Alabama: #25 vs. #7 (3 faced, 0 left) 🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SCHEDULES • Miami: #1 vs. #44 (1 faced, 1 left) • Wake Forest: #6 vs. #124 (0 faced, 0 left) • Louisville: #19 vs. #108 (0 faced, 1 left) 📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS • Texas A&M, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota: left side of the chart ⏳ 3 Top 25 pass Ds left: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Minnesota

QB Play vs. Strength of Pass Defenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 (P4 + ND ranks) ✅ Tested & proven: • USC: #2 QB play vs. the #1 schedule (5 Top 25 pass Ds faced) • LSU, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama: top-20 QB play vs. top-20 schedules ⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • Miami: #1 QB play, 1 Top 25 pass D faced • Wake Forest: #4, 0 faced • Houston (#7), Louisville (#15) ❄️ Tested & struggling: • Texas A&M: #67 QB play vs. the #24 schedule • Michigan State: #59 vs. #3 (5 Top 25 faced) • Michigan, Minnesota 🔜 3 games left: Ohio State (#6 QB play) gets 3 Top 25 pass Ds after the #36 schedule so far. So do Texas A&M, Michigan, Minnesota. / Georgia and Alabama get none Faced + remaining table 🧵👇 #CFB #CollegeFootball #FightOn #GeauxTigers #GoCanes #GigEm #GoBucks

Defense EPA/play allowed vs. offenses faced & remaining (national ranks, all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10) 🎯 Tested & holding • Alabama: #3 vs. the #2 schedule (4 Top 25 offenses faced, 0 left) • Oregon: #8 vs. #1 (6 faced, 0 left) • Texas: #5 vs. #3 (4 faced, 1 left) • Tennessee: #1 vs. #16 (3 faced, 1 left) • LSU: #9 vs. #14 (3 faced, 0 left) • Oklahoma: #16 vs. #7 (4 faced, 2 left) • Georgia: #21 vs. #20 (3 faced, 2 left) • Kentucky: #23 vs. #11 (3 faced, 3 left) 🧁 Strong numbers, soft schedules • UCLA: #6 vs. #115 (0 faced, 2 left) • Baylor: #14 vs. #95 (0 faced, 1 left) • Michigan: #10 vs. #78 (1 faced, 1 left) ⏳ Toughest left: Boston College, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, SMU, Duke, Kentucky

Defense Success vs. Strength of Offenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 (P4 + ND ranks) ✅ Tested & holding (top-20 D vs. a top-20 schedule): Tennessee, Alabama, Texas, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Kentucky. Oregon has seen 6 Top 25 offenses, most in FBS ⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • UCLA: #6 D vs. the #67 schedule, 0 Top 25 offenses faced. 2 of its last 3 are • Baylor: #13, 0 faced • Michigan: #10, 1 faced ❄️ Tested & struggling: • Stanford: #67 D vs. the #9 schedule • Purdue: #63 vs. #15 • Florida State, Iowa State 🔜 3 games left: Kentucky is the only team with 3 Top 25 offenses left. Alabama and Oregon have none. Faced + remaining table 🧵👇 #CFB #CollegeFootball #RollTide #GoDucks #GBO #HookEm #GoBruins

Offense EPA/play vs. defenses faced & remaining (all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10) 🎯 Tested & proven • Ole Miss: #4 vs. the #2 schedule (4 Top 25 Ds faced, 1 left) • Alabama: #6 vs. #5 (5 faced, 0 left) • South Carolina: #9 vs. #4 (5 faced, 1 left) • Kentucky: #19 vs. #3 (5 faced, 1 left) • USC: #10 vs. #12 (3 faced, 2 left) • LSU: #12 vs. #10 (4 faced, 2 left) 🤔 Top 10, lightly tested • Boise State: #1 in FBS vs. the #51 schedule (2 faced, 0 left) • Miami: #3 vs. #46 (1 faced, 1 left) • Notre Dame: #7 vs. #47 (1 faced, 0 left) 🧁 Soft schedules: Wake Forest (#122), Louisville (#112), Duke (#123, softest in the P4) ⏳ 3 Top 25 Ds left: Texas A&M, Michigan, Purdue, Missouri

Offense Success vs. Strength of Defenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 ✅ Tested & producing (top-20 offense vs. a top-20 schedule): Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, USC, LSU, Florida, Kentucky. Six of the seven are SEC ⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • Wake Forest: #8 offense, 0 Top 25 defenses faced • Louisville: #21, 0 faced ❄️ Tested & struggling: • Michigan State: #114 offense vs. the #7 schedule • Texas A&M: #107 vs. #15 🔜 3 games left: • Toughest: Texas A&M (Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas), Michigan (Oregon, UCLA, Ohio State) • No Top 25 Ds left: Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana Faced + remaining table 🧵👇 #CFB #CollegeFootball #HottyToddy #RollTide #GigEm #GoBlue #GoDeacs

5. Roberts' Stop Sheet - 1st down: Auburn's 1st & 10 plays work 34% of the time (SEC average 42%), but we've allowed 10.3 yards a pass play on 1st & 10. - Blitz problem: We blitz 2nd most in the SEC but rank 14th in pressure and 14th in sacks. QB scrambles have gone for 15 yards a pop against us. - Red zone: Auburn has 1 TD on 25 snaps from the 20 to the 11. Inside the 5 they scored on 5 of 6 snaps, 3 of them Brown runs. / Reco: Win 1st down, spy Brown instead of blitzing, and make them settle for field goals. Trips, Flex and jet motion lean pass (15-25% run).

4. Roberts' Scouting Report - Passing game: 37% of Auburn's pass plays work (SEC average 42%), 5.2 yards a pass play, sacked on 10% of dropbacks. Only A&M, Texas and Tennessee are lower in the SEC. - Red flag: Tennessee and A&M both had their best passing day of SEC play against us (A&M 10.2 yards a pass play, Tennessee 7.4). - The difference: Byrum Brown. 38% of Auburn's designed runs are QB runs, and 17 of their 41 big plays are Brown runs or scrambles. / Reco: Make Brown beat us with his arm, not his legs.

1. Cramsey's Opening Script - Auburn's openers: 3 of 6 SEC offenses scored on their first drive vs Auburn (Florida TD, Georgia TD, LSU FG). - Our openers: 0 for 5 in SEC play (turnover on downs, INT, fumble and 2 punts). - What carries over: Cross has worked 13 of 25 times vs Auburn at 11.0 yards a throw, and Leads 6 of 10 at 9.4 a carry. Both already work for us (6 of 10 and 9 of 18). / Reco: Open with Cross, Leads, PA Boot and the jailbreak screen, then take a Divide shot. Go for it on 4th & 1: offenses are 8 for 8 on it vs Auburn. 2. Cramsey's Call Sheet - 1st & 10: Passes beat runs vs Auburn (49% work vs 33%) and for us (56% vs 36%). - 2nd & short: Duo, Insert and Counter read are 9 for 9 vs Auburn. Bluff Read is 0 for 3. - 3rd & 5-9: Cross is 4 of 6 and Sail 2 of 2 vs Auburn. Dagger is 0 for 3 for us there. / Reco: Throw on 1st & 10, gap runs on 2nd & short, Cross or Sail on 3rd & 5-9. In the red zone: run it from the 20 to the 11, throw it from the 10 to the 6, and Leads, Inside Slam or PA Boot inside the 5. 3. Cramsey's Concept Map - Works both ways: Jailbreak screen, Leads, PA Boot and Cross work at least half the time for us AND vs Auburn. - The conflict: Our zone reads. Off Tackle works 12 of 23 for us but 2 of 10 vs Auburn. Bluff Read is 11 of 19 for us, 7 of 22 vs Auburn. / Reco: Lean on the four that work both ways. Leave at home: checkdowns (3 of 15 vs Auburn), Tosser (1 of 4 vs Auburn), Dagger (1 of 9 for us) and Trips sets (9 of 39 for us). Defense in next reply...