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Ark Quant

@cfbquant

📊 Strategy for Nat’l Collegiate Athletics Landscape, not just data. 📰 Portal Targets, Salary Cap Optimization, Opp Play Calling & Custom Analyses 📲 ⬇️

 Manhattan, NY
cfbquant.com
Joined December 2024
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  • Following362
  • Followers2.7K
795Media
Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)Photo by Ark Quant (@cfbquant)
Every FBS head-coaching hire since 1971: 984 of them. One thing predicts how they turn out: Year 1. Program better by Years 3–4: • Year 1 fell from previous year: 25% • Year 1 rose: 84% Hot names? No better than other sitting head coaches. Rebuilds? About 1 in 8 work. 🧵
Summary card. Year one is the tell: every FBS head-coaching hire, 1971–2021 (984). Share whose program was better in years 3–4 than the season before the coach arrived, by SRS: year one fell 10+ percentile points, 25% (329 hires); flat, 66% (380); rose 10+, 84% (275). 12% of bad year ones turned into a clearly better program. Hot names 59% vs. 64% for other sitting head coaches. Four of five measures agree strongly. Year-one swings are 17% bigger since 2021. When year one goes backward, it usually stays backward.

ALT Summary card. Year one is the tell: every FBS head-coaching hire, 1971–2021 (984). Share whose program was better in years 3–4 than the season before the coach arrived, by SRS: year one fell 10+ percentile points, 25% (329 hires); flat, 66% (380); rose 10+, 84% (275). 12% of bad year ones turned into a clearly better program. Hot names 59% vs. 64% for other sitting head coaches. Four of five measures agree strongly. Year-one swings are 17% bigger since 2021. When year one goes backward, it usually stays backward.

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SEC defenses ranked by how often they allow opposing players to have their best game of the season. This focuses on each opponent’s leading QB, RB, and top 3 receivers to capture meaningful performances rather than inflated totals from backups and low-usage players.
Image from Gator Analytics (@gatadata88)
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Florida has the SEC’s most unbalanced offense and defense on a game-by-game basis. After adjusting for opponents, the gap averages 1.52 points per drive - the SEC’s largest, regardless of which side performs better. Offense was better in 5 of 8 games; defense was better in the other 3 games. They can’t seem to both perform well on the same day.
Image from Gator Analytics (@gatadata88)
Gator Analytics (@gatadata88) profile pictureGator Analytics
@gatadata88Nov 8
I can’t think of any games where our offense AND defense both played well.
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Live games on basketballquant.com now get the full game page while they're being played 🔴 Shot charts, lineups, stint charts, on/off splits, advanced stats, and more, updating every 30 seconds. No. 4 UConn vs No. 16 Michigan tips at 8 on TNT ⬇️
Image from Basketball Quant (@bballquant)
Image from Basketball Quant (@bballquant)
Image from Basketball Quant (@bballquant)
Image from Basketball Quant (@bballquant)
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The SEC offenses that have used the most unique formations ahead of WK10 (including mirrored sets) UK: 194 🥇 Florida: 189 🥈 Alabama: 164 🥉 SC: 160 LSU: 150 OMiss: 147 Vandy: 138 UGA: 129 Auburn: 126 Texas: 124 Mizz: 123 OK: 118 TAMU: 113 Tenn: 106 Arkansas: 97 MSU: 94
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Ark Quant retweeted
Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) profile picture
Pete Thamel
@PeteThamelNov 6
Sources: Missouri has re-signed quarterback Austin Simmons for the 2027 season, which would bring back a player who projects as one of the faces of the sport. By signing now, Simmons’ return allows the staff at Missouri to retain and recruit a top roster.
Image from Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel)
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College football offenses are operating at the slowest pace they have in over a decade while simultaneously being more efficient.
Image from Jordan Moore (@jordanmoore_21)
Jordan Moore (@jordanmoore_21) profile pictureJordan Moore
@jordanmoore_21Jan 10
Are we ready to have the discussion that up-tempo offenses that are all about running 70+ plays a game are no longer an advantage like they were 5-10 years ago?
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Ark Quant retweeted
NILnomics (@NILnomics) profile picture
NILnomics
@NILnomicsNov 5
The new college basketball season has started! My analysis looks at how D-I men's basketball spending relates to where each 2026-27 roster came from. The roster data comes from Basketball Quant (basketballquant.com) and the spending data from my MFRS database (FY2025). 🧵
Basketball Quant — College Basketball Stats, Analytics & Transfer Portal

Basketball Quant — College Basketball Stats, Analytics & Transfer Portal

College basketball stats and analytics for every NCAA Division I men’s team and player — advanced stats, shot charts, on/off splits, transfer portal tracking, NBA Draft boards and preseason project...

basketballquant.com
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So PROUD of our men committing to the process day in and day out! Rank ⬆️ 82 spots year over year. Top 20 OL in the country! #OGs 👀🚀🚀
Ark Quant (@cfbquant) profile pictureArk Quant
@cfbquantNov 3
Most Improved Offensive Lines, 2026 (thru Wk 9) ⬇️ - 25 lines up 38 to 109 spots from last year. 15 have a new OL coach, 19 a new OL coach or OC. Some of that is bad lines getting coaches fired, then bouncing. So we checked what else changed: talent, experience, and who they’ve actually blocked… - We flagged South Carolina, Houston and UCLA in August as bounce-back rooms on roster alone, before Briles or Kennedy called a snap. / Houston (#110 to #5): zero blue chips, same OC and OL coach. All 5 starters had a full season of starts somewhere before this year / South Carolina (#125 to #16): Briles + Randy Clements year one, and it’s legit. Half their opponents have a top-25 defense. TCU, the line they left, went #66 to #130 / UCLA (#113 to #21): new staff, but the schedule went from the 6th toughest set of defenses in the country to 109th / Pitt, Liberty, Tulsa: same OL coach, 3 to 4 starters back. The room grew up / @CoachMateos at Wisconsin (#127 to #52): younger line than last year, fewer blue chips, 2 starters back, nobody with more than one season of starts, and they’ve blocked a top-35 slate. Arkansas, the room he left, went #62 to #96 ....biggest declines in the replies. Ranks = cfbquant.com OL grade (pass pro + run game), 138 teams. Schedule = strength of defenses faced. Starting season = 400+ snaps. #CFB #GoCoogs #Gamecocks #GoBruins #H2P #RiseWithUs #ReignCane #OnWisconsin #WPS
Image from Ark Quant (@cfbquant)
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Replying to @RazorbackMBB
@RazorbackMBB beat UAPB by 45. With Maper Maker on the floor, the Razorbacks were +51. In the 17 minutes the 7-0 freshman sat, UAPB outscored Arkansas by 6. See his on/off splits ⬇️
Image from Basketball Quant (@bballquant)
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Ark Quant retweeted
Will Rosenblatt (@rozenwill) profile picture
Will Rosenblatt
@rozenwillNov 2
SEC adjusted success rate for offense and defense after Week 9 • Ole Miss defense now in the green; Rebels are title contenders • Advanced metrics have Georgia, LSU, and Bama as the top 3 teams in the SEC • Texas defense is the best defense in the SEC • Kentucky offense is still getting better, may not have peaked
Image from Will Rosenblatt (@rozenwill)
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Ark Quant (@cfbquant) profile picture
Ark Quant
@cfbquantNov 3
2026 Giveaways / Takeaways vs. 2025 (P4 vs P4 games) 📈 Who improved the most? Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, Missouri, Purdue, Northwestern, Arkansas, Boston College, Cincinnati, Wake Forest 🔻 Who declined the most? Texas, SMU, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Oregon, LSU, Indiana, Colorado, Texas Tech, South Carolina. (viz in the replies) For some it was the offense, for better or worse. For others, the defense. Offense (giveaways) Kentucky #68 → #T3 Wake Forest #63 → #2 Texas #2 → #T61 Oregon #T8 → #T61 Defense (takeaways) Baylor #64 → #T5 UCLA #T57 → #1 SMU #T4 → #T66 K-State #2 → #62 Ranked per game among 68 P4 teams (Notre Dame included). 2026 thru Week 9 vs full 2025 regular season. #CFB #BBN #SicEm #GoBruins #MIZ #WPS #HookEm #PonyUp #EMAW #GoDucks #GeauxTigers
Image from Ark Quant (@cfbquant)
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Ark Quant retweeted
Adam Ford (@AdamFord92) profile picture
Adam Ford
@AdamFord92Nov 2
Arkansas’ latest SP+ rating is now -2.9. If it holds, it will be only the second negative rating in modern school history, and the second-worst, ahead of only the 2019 Chad Morris team Morris’s first team (2018) would be a touchdown favorite over this team
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Sorry for the AI Graphic, but the info is valuable. Here are the Bottom 10 "Slow Starters" of College Football.
🤖 Made with AI
Image from College Football Insiders (@InsidersFB)
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Miami is No. 1, 8 and 0, and hasn't played a ranked team yet. Since 1989, top five teams that started 8 and 0 without facing a ranked opponent are 2 and 7 in their first ranked game. The last two to reach No. 1 that way, 1995 Florida State (7 and 0) and 2015 Ohio State (10 and 0), both lost. Miami's first test: Saturday at Notre Dame. Stats via IronFootball.app
Iron | The College Football App

Iron | The College Football App

Iron is the college football app for live scores, news, stats, rosters, recruiting, transfer portal updates, rankings, and games across FBS and FCS.

ironfootball.app
Tony Granieri (@TheSpottersView) profile pictureTony Granieri
@TheSpottersViewNov 1
No. 1 Miami is 8-0 and faces its first ranked opponent of the season this Saturday in South Bend. It’s the first time since the 2015 Ohio State Buckeyes had reached No. 1 at 8-0 without having played a ranked opponent. That Ohio State team lost its first ranked game that season. Will the Hurricanes follow a similar path? @ironfbstats
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Replying to @CoachCalArk
@CoachCalArk's former players have earned $4.59 billion in NBA salary since 1984-85. Count the signed contracts still to be paid, and it’s $6.17 billion. That’s $820 million more than Coach K’s players have earned, and 2.6x any other coach’s. NBA earnings by college coach ⬇️
Stacked bar chart of NBA salary earned from 1984-85 through 2026-27 by players each college coach sent to the league, with each bar made of one segment per player, coloured by school. Each coach has a circular headshot at the left. Under each coach's name are the logos of every school that sent him a player to the NBA, each with that school's total. Each player is credited to his head coach in his final college season. 1. John Calipari $4.59B, 76 players: Kentucky $4.16B, Memphis $288M, Massachusetts $132M, Arkansas $13M (Davis $424M, Towns $343M, Booker $328M). 2. Mike Krzyzewski $3.77B, 75 players: Duke (Irving $390M, Tatum $269M, Ingram $260M). An arrow marks the $0.82B gap between them. 3. Roy Williams $1.77B, 45 players: North Carolina $1.17B, Kansas $595M (Barnes $229M, Pierce $201M, Johnson $111M). 4. Rick Barnes $1.70B, 38 players: Texas $1.51B, Tennessee $124M, Providence $36M, Clemson $30M (Durant $554M, Aldridge $219M, Turner $192M). 5. Jim Calhoun $1.46B, 27 players: Connec

ALT Stacked bar chart of NBA salary earned from 1984-85 through 2026-27 by players each college coach sent to the league, with each bar made of one segment per player, coloured by school. Each coach has a circular headshot at the left. Under each coach's name are the logos of every school that sent him a player to the NBA, each with that school's total. Each player is credited to his head coach in his final college season. 1. John Calipari $4.59B, 76 players: Kentucky $4.16B, Memphis $288M, Massachusetts $132M, Arkansas $13M (Davis $424M, Towns $343M, Booker $328M). 2. Mike Krzyzewski $3.77B, 75 players: Duke (Irving $390M, Tatum $269M, Ingram $260M). An arrow marks the $0.82B gap between them. 3. Roy Williams $1.77B, 45 players: North Carolina $1.17B, Kansas $595M (Barnes $229M, Pierce $201M, Johnson $111M). 4. Rick Barnes $1.70B, 38 players: Texas $1.51B, Tennessee $124M, Providence $36M, Clemson $30M (Durant $554M, Aldridge $219M, Turner $192M). 5. Jim Calhoun $1.46B, 27 players: Connec

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Ark Quant retweeted
Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) profile picture
Cam Mellor
@CamMellorOct 29
Our @PFN365 highest-graded SEC CBs this season: DJ Pickett, LSU: 91.7 Bo Mascoe, Texas: 89.4 Jahlil Florence, Missouri: 89.4 Kayin Lee, Tennessee: 88.5 Courtland Guillory, Oklahoma: 87.2 Jaylon Braxton, Ole Miss: 85.8 Blake Stewart, Georgia: 85.4 Shelton Lewis, Arkansas: 85.0 Ty Redmond, Tennessee: 85.0 Ellis Robinson IV, Georgia: 84.8
Image from Cam Mellor (@CamMellor)
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239 high-major transfers this offseason came from mid-majors. 226 came from other high majors. The 2026-27 transfer ladder, by the tier of the league each D1 transfer left and joined ⬇️
Sankey diagram of 1,728 D1-to-D1 transfers on 2026-27 rosters, from the tier of the league they left (2025-26) to the tier they joined (2026-27). High majors: 438 left (226 to high majors, 168 to mid-majors, 44 to low majors) and 518 arrived (226 from high majors, 239 from mid-majors, 53 from low majors). Mid-majors: 914 left (239 up to high majors, 443 to other mid-majors, 232 down to low majors) and 798 arrived. Low majors: 376 left (53 to high majors, 187 to mid-majors, 136 to other low majors) and 412 arrived. In all, 479 transfers (28%) moved up a tier, 805 (47%) stayed in their tier and 444 (26%) moved down.

ALT Sankey diagram of 1,728 D1-to-D1 transfers on 2026-27 rosters, from the tier of the league they left (2025-26) to the tier they joined (2026-27). High majors: 438 left (226 to high majors, 168 to mid-majors, 44 to low majors) and 518 arrived (226 from high majors, 239 from mid-majors, 53 from low majors). Mid-majors: 914 left (239 up to high majors, 443 to other mid-majors, 232 down to low majors) and 798 arrived. Low majors: 376 left (53 to high majors, 187 to mid-majors, 136 to other low majors) and 412 arrived. In all, 479 transfers (28%) moved up a tier, 805 (47%) stayed in their tier and 444 (26%) moved down.

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Where every conference's 2026-27 minutes come from: SEC: 30% from high-major transfers Big Ten: 45% from returners, most of the power leagues Ivy: 76% returners, 3% transfers All 32 leagues ⬇️
100% stacked bar chart of 2026-27 projected minutes by player source for all 32 conferences, grouped into high, mid and low majors. Segments: returners, high-major transfers, mid-major transfers, low-major transfers, and freshmen, internationals and other newcomers. High-major average: 34% returners, 22% high-major transfers, 24% mid-major transfers, 5% low-major transfers, 15% newcomers. Big Ten 45% returners; Big East 34%; SEC 32% returners and 30% high-major transfers; Pac-12 31%; Big 12 31%; ACC 29%. Mid-major average 37% returners; Ivy 76%, ASUN 52%, MVC 44%, A-10 43%; Sun Belt lowest at 26%. Low-major average 37% returners; Patriot 66%, Big West 47%; Southland lowest at 22%.

ALT 100% stacked bar chart of 2026-27 projected minutes by player source for all 32 conferences, grouped into high, mid and low majors. Segments: returners, high-major transfers, mid-major transfers, low-major transfers, and freshmen, internationals and other newcomers. High-major average: 34% returners, 22% high-major transfers, 24% mid-major transfers, 5% low-major transfers, 15% newcomers. Big Ten 45% returners; Big East 34%; SEC 32% returners and 30% high-major transfers; Pac-12 31%; Big 12 31%; ACC 29%. Mid-major average 37% returners; Ivy 76%, ASUN 52%, MVC 44%, A-10 43%; Sun Belt lowest at 26%. Low-major average 37% returners; Patriot 66%, Big West 47%; Southland lowest at 22%.

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First Down Tendencies (Run Rate vs Pass Rate) through Week 8
Image from Yahya Abdul Jabbar (@sportsballpm)
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