📊 Strategy for Nat’l Collegiate Athletics Landscape, not just data. 📰 Portal Targets, Salary Cap Optimization, Opp Play Calling & Custom Analyses 📲 ⬇️
Manhattan, NY
Joined December 2024
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24-Team CFP, Run on the Last 2 Seasons
4-team CFP (2014-23): zero 2-loss teams ⬇️
2025 / 9-3 Texas, Michigan + USC in. 8-4 Iowa too
2024 / 9-3 Bama + Ole Miss, 10-3 Clemson in
Both years / 19 teams with 3+ losses in
#CFB #HookEm #GoBlue #FightOn #Hawkeyes #RollTide #HottyToddy
ALT Chart of playoff teams by losses at selection. 4-team era (2014-23, 40 teams): 16 with 0 losses, 24 with 1. 12-team actual (2024-25, 24 teams): 2 with 0, 10 with 1, 10 with 2, 2 with 3. 24-team field using each year's final CFP top 24 (48 teams): 2 with 0, 11 with 1, 16 with 2, 18 with 3, 1 with 4 (Iowa 8-4). In the field with 3+ losses, 2024: Alabama 9-3, Ole Miss 9-3, South Carolina 9-3, Clemson 10-3, Iowa State 10-3, Missouri 9-3, Illinois 9-3, Syracuse 9-3, Colorado 9-3, UNLV 10-3. 2025: Alabama 10-3, Texas 9-3, USC 9-3, Arizona 9-3, Michigan 9-3, Virginia 10-3, Houston 9-3, Georgia Tech 9-3, Iowa 8-4. First team out: 10-2 Memphis (2024), 11-2 North Texas (2025). Source: CFP selection committee final rankings.
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Check this year's bubble teams yourself ⬇️
cfbquant.com
1. Tap Charts
2. Scroll to the table under the chart
3. T25 / T50 = top-25 and top-50 opponents faced
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QB Play vs. Strength of Pass Defenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 (P4 + ND ranks)
✅ Tested & proven: • USC: #2 QB play vs. the #1 schedule (5 Top 25 pass Ds faced) • LSU, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama: top-20 QB play vs. top-20 schedules
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • Miami: #1 QB play, 1 Top 25 pass D faced • Wake Forest: #4, 0 faced • Houston (#7), Louisville (#15)
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Texas A&M: #67 QB play vs. the #24 schedule • Michigan State: #59 vs. #3 (5 Top 25 faced) • Michigan, Minnesota
🔜 3 games left: Ohio State (#6 QB play) gets 3 Top 25 pass Ds after the #36 schedule so far. So do Texas A&M, Michigan, Minnesota.
/ Georgia and Alabama get none
Faced + remaining table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball #FightOn #GeauxTigers #GoCanes #GigEm #GoBucks
QB EPA/dropback vs. pass defenses faced & remaining (national ranks, all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10)
🎯 TESTED & PROVEN
• USC: #2 vs. the #1 schedule (5 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• LSU: #4 vs. #11 (4 faced, 2 left)
• Florida: #12 vs. #18 (2 faced, 1 left)
• Ole Miss: #18 vs. #8 (2 faced, 1 left)
• Alabama: #25 vs. #7 (3 faced, 0 left)
🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SCHEDULES
• Miami: #1 vs. #44 (1 faced, 1 left)
• Wake Forest: #6 vs. #124 (0 faced, 0 left)
• Louisville: #19 vs. #108 (0 faced, 1 left)
📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS
• Texas A&M, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota: left side of the chart
⏳ 3 Top 25 pass Ds left: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Minnesota
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Defense Success vs. Strength of Offenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 (P4 + ND ranks)
✅ Tested & holding (top-20 D vs. a top-20 schedule): Tennessee, Alabama, Texas, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Kentucky. Oregon has seen 6 Top 25 offenses, most in FBS
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • UCLA: #6 D vs. the #67 schedule, 0 Top 25 offenses faced. 2 of its last 3 are • Baylor: #13, 0 faced • Michigan: #10, 1 faced
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Stanford: #67 D vs. the #9 schedule • Purdue: #63 vs. #15 • Florida State, Iowa State
🔜 3 games left: Kentucky is the only team with 3 Top 25 offenses left. Alabama and Oregon have none.
Faced + remaining table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball #RollTide #GoDucks #GBO #HookEm #GoBruins
Defense EPA/play allowed vs. offenses faced & remaining (national ranks, all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10)
🎯 Tested & holding
• Alabama: #3 vs. the #2 schedule (4 Top 25 offenses faced, 0 left)
• Oregon: #8 vs. #1 (6 faced, 0 left)
• Texas: #5 vs. #3 (4 faced, 1 left)
• Tennessee: #1 vs. #16 (3 faced, 1 left)
• LSU: #9 vs. #14 (3 faced, 0 left)
• Oklahoma: #16 vs. #7 (4 faced, 2 left)
• Georgia: #21 vs. #20 (3 faced, 2 left)
• Kentucky: #23 vs. #11 (3 faced, 3 left)
🧁 Strong numbers, soft schedules
• UCLA: #6 vs. #115 (0 faced, 2 left)
• Baylor: #14 vs. #95 (0 faced, 1 left)
• Michigan: #10 vs. #78 (1 faced, 1 left)
⏳ Toughest left: Boston College, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, SMU, Duke, Kentucky
Offense Success vs. Strength of Defenses Faced, wk1-10 2026
✅ Tested & producing (top-20 offense vs. a top-20 schedule): Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, USC, LSU, Florida, Kentucky. Six of the seven are SEC
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • Wake Forest: #8 offense, 0 Top 25 defenses faced • Louisville: #21, 0 faced
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Michigan State: #114 offense vs. the #7 schedule • Texas A&M: #107 vs. #15
🔜 3 games left: • Toughest: Texas A&M (Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas), Michigan (Oregon, UCLA, Ohio State) •
No Top 25 Ds left: Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana
Faced + remaining table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball #HottyToddy #RollTide #GigEm #GoBlue #GoDeacs
Offense EPA/play vs. defenses faced & remaining (all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10)
🎯 Tested & proven
• Ole Miss: #4 vs. the #2 schedule (4 Top 25 Ds faced, 1 left)
• Alabama: #6 vs. #5 (5 faced, 0 left)
• South Carolina: #9 vs. #4 (5 faced, 1 left)
• Kentucky: #19 vs. #3 (5 faced, 1 left)
• USC: #10 vs. #12 (3 faced, 2 left)
• LSU: #12 vs. #10 (4 faced, 2 left)
🤔 Top 10, lightly tested
• Boise State: #1 in FBS vs. the #51 schedule (2 faced, 0 left)
• Miami: #3 vs. #46 (1 faced, 1 left)
• Notre Dame: #7 vs. #47 (1 faced, 0 left)
🧁 Soft schedules: Wake Forest (#122), Louisville (#112), Duke (#123, softest in the P4)
⏳ 3 Top 25 Ds left: Texas A&M, Michigan, Purdue, Missouri
Gilbert, 50+
* Tennessee 2024: 3/6
* Tennessee 2025: 2/3
* Arkansas 2026: 1/7
Are you getting better each week if you choose to keep letting him kick beyond 50?
“We were #% on 4th and long so better chance to kick.” That’s a problem in itself.
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Kiffin applies game theory at a ridiculous volume. Zero-sum accumulation. High IQ and competitive drive behavior.
NEW: LSU is working to add former Baylor head coach Dave Aranda to its staff, CBS reports.
on3.com/news/report-lsu-look…
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Arkansas Play-Calling, Auburn Week 2026
/ Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
/ Goal: Beat Cole Cubelic's weekly recap...give feedback!
TLDR: Offense
- Shut out early: 0 first-quarter points in our last 3 games (Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Missouri). Only 5 of 138 FBS teams can say that: Arkansas, Eastern Michigan, Mississippi State, New Mexico State and UL Monroe.
- Strength of defenses faced: Mississippi State's 3 came against the #2, #3 and #6 defenses (Texas, LSU, Oklahoma). The other three are bottom-20 offenses. Ours ranks #62 and got shut out by #8 Tennessee and #20 Missouri, but also by #75 Vanderbilt. (Ranks are opponent-adjusted, out of 138.)
- SEC play: 7 first-quarter points in 5 SEC games, 15th of 16 (only Oklahoma has fewer). 0 points on our first two drives of any SEC game (0 for 10). Nationally, tied for 120th of 138 in first-quarter scoring.
/ Reco: Auburn's defense ranks #38, softer than every SEC defense we've played except Vanderbilt. Script the opener around what works on Auburn AND for us, and go for it on 4th & 1.
TLDR: Defense
- Slow starts here too: 38 first-quarter points allowed in 5 SEC games, 15th of 16 (only Mississippi State allows more). Nationally, tied for 90th of 138.
- Strength of offenses faced: Georgia (#11 offense) scored a TD on its opening drive. So did A&M (#80) after our INT gave them the ball at our 28, and A&M went on to score 14 in the first quarter.
- Trending better: 17 allowed in the first quarter over the last 3 games (Tennessee 0, Vanderbilt 7, Missouri 10) after 21 in the first 2, and none of those 3 scored on their opening drive.
/ Reco: Auburn's offense ranks #38, between Missouri (#26) and Tennessee (#41). Win 1st down and spy Brown.
...Details of Offense and Defense Recos in the reply...
#wps #arkansas #sec #cfb #cfp
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1. Cramsey's Opening Script
- Auburn's openers: 3 of 6 SEC offenses scored on their first drive vs Auburn (Florida TD, Georgia TD, LSU FG).
- Our openers: 0 for 5 in SEC play (turnover on downs, INT, fumble and 2 punts).
- What carries over: Cross has worked 13 of 25 times vs Auburn at 11.0 yards a throw, and Leads 6 of 10 at 9.4 a carry. Both already work for us (6 of 10 and 9 of 18).
/ Reco: Open with Cross, Leads, PA Boot and the jailbreak screen, then take a Divide shot. Go for it on 4th & 1: offenses are 8 for 8 on it vs Auburn.
2. Cramsey's Call Sheet
- 1st & 10: Passes beat runs vs Auburn (49% work vs 33%) and for us (56% vs 36%).
- 2nd & short: Duo, Insert and Counter read are 9 for 9 vs Auburn. Bluff Read is 0 for 3.
- 3rd & 5-9: Cross is 4 of 6 and Sail 2 of 2 vs Auburn. Dagger is 0 for 3 for us there.
/ Reco: Throw on 1st & 10, gap runs on 2nd & short, Cross or Sail on 3rd & 5-9. In the red zone: run it from the 20 to the 11, throw it from the 10 to the 6, and Leads, Inside Slam or PA Boot inside the 5.
3. Cramsey's Concept Map
- Works both ways: Jailbreak screen, Leads, PA Boot and Cross work at least half the time for us AND vs Auburn.
- The conflict: Our zone reads. Off Tackle works 12 of 23 for us but 2 of 10 vs Auburn. Bluff Read is 11 of 19 for us, 7 of 22 vs Auburn.
/ Reco: Lean on the four that work both ways. Leave at home: checkdowns (3 of 15 vs Auburn), Tosser (1 of 4 vs Auburn), Dagger (1 of 9 for us) and Trips sets (9 of 39 for us).
Defense in next reply...
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Checkout the third partnership we’ve worked on with @NILnomics! 🏀
The new college basketball season has started!
My analysis looks at how D-I men's basketball spending relates to where each 2026-27 roster came from.
The roster data comes from Basketball Quant (basketballquant.com) and the spending data from my MFRS database (FY2025). 🧵
Defense Success vs. Strength of Offenses faced, 2026
✅ Tested & holding: • Oregon — #8 EPA/play allowed against the #1 slate (5 Top 25 offenses already faced) • Texas — #5 EPA against the #3 slate (4 Top 25) • LSU, Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana — also high-level defense despite real tests
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft slates: • UCLA (#3 EPA vs. #111 slate, 1 Top 25), Baylor (0 Top 25 faced), Michigan
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Stanford (#129 EPA vs. #4 slate, 4 Top 25), Rutgers, Illinois, Georgia Tech
Full remaining slate + table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball
Defense EPA/play allowed vs. opponent offenses faced & remaining (all 138 FBS · thru Wk 9)
🎯 TESTED & HOLDING
• Oregon: #8 EPA allowed vs. the #1 slate (5 Top 25 faced, 1 left)
• Texas: #5 EPA allowed vs. the #3 slate (4 Top 25 faced, 1 left)
• Ohio State: #4 EPA allowed vs. #27 slate (3 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• LSU: #7 EPA allowed vs. #24 slate (3 Top 25 faced, 1 left)
• Alabama: #9 EPA allowed vs. #9 slate (4 Top 25 faced, 1 left)
• Indiana: #6 EPA allowed vs. #17 slate (4 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SLATES
• UCLA: #3 EPA allowed vs. #111 slate (1 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• Baylor: #12 EPA allowed vs. #104 slate (0 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• Michigan: #10 EPA allowed vs. #74 slate (1 Top 25 faced)
📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS
• Stanford: #129 EPA allowed vs. #4 slate (4 Top 25 faced)
• Rutgers, Illinois, Georgia Tech — left side of the chart
Offense Success vs. Strength of Defenses Faced, wk1-9 2026
✅ Tested & producing: • USC — elite EPA/play against the #1 slate (5 Top 25 already faced) • LSU, Georgia, Indiana, Ole Miss — high EPA despite real tests
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft slates: • Wake Forest (#121 slate, 0 Top 25), Louisville, Arizona, Duke — bottom-right
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Texas A&M, California, Minnesota, Clemson — left side
Full remaining slate + table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball
Offense EPA/play vs. opponent defenses faced & remaining (all 138 FBS · thru Wk 9)
🎯 TESTED & PROVEN
• USC: elite production against the #1 slate (5 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• LSU: high EPA vs. #8 slate (3 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• Indiana: high EPA vs. #7 slate (4 Top 25 faced, 1 left)
• Ole Miss: high EPA vs. #9 slate (2 Top 25 faced)
🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SLATES
• Wake Forest: strong EPA vs. #121 slate (0 Top 25 faced, 0 left)
• Louisville: strong EPA vs. #101 slate (0 Top 25 faced)
• Arizona: strong EPA vs. #109 slate (1 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• Duke: bottom-right of the chart
📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS
• Texas A&M, California, Minnesota, Clemson — left side of the chart
Is your QB actually proven?
QB play vs. pass defenses faced, 2026
• Jayden Maiava (USC) & Sam Leavitt (LSU): elite EPA against the toughest slates
…Leavitt has already faced three top 25 pass defenses, Maiava four.
• Darian Mensah, Gio Lopez (Wake) & Noah Fifita (Arizona): big numbers on soft slates…none will face more than two Top 25 pass defenses this season.
• Marcel Reed (Texas A&M): tested and struggling
Top 25 faced / remaining + full table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball
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QB EPA/dropback vs. opponent pass defenses faced & remaining (all 138 FBS · thru Wk 9)
🎯 TESTED & PROVEN
• USC (Maiava): slate #1 faced (5 Top 25, 8 Top 50) ➔ #21 remaining (2 Top 25)
• LSU (Leavitt): slate #8 faced (3 Top 25, 6 Top 50) ➔ #8 remaining (2 Top 25)
• Miami (Mensah): #1 EPA, slate #42 faced (1 Top 25) ➔ #38 remaining (1 Top 25)
🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SLATES
• Wake Forest (Lopez): #8 EPA vs. #121 slate (0 Top 25, 1 Top 50) ➔ #105 remaining (0 Top 25)
• Arizona (Fifita): #25 EPA vs. #109 slate (1 Top 25) ➔ #24 remaining (2 Top 25)
• Ohio State: high EPA vs. #87 slate (2 Top 25) ➔ remaining spikes to #3 (3 Top 25, 4 Top 50)
📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS
• Texas A&M (Reed), California, Clemson — left side of the chart
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**correction on turnover statement**
2026 Giveaways / Takeaways vs. 2025 (P4 vs P4 games)
📈 Who improved the most? Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, Missouri, Purdue, Northwestern, Arkansas, Boston College, Cincinnati, Wake Forest
🔻 Who declined the most? Texas, SMU, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Oregon, LSU, Indiana, Colorado, Texas Tech, South Carolina. (viz in the replies)
For some it was the offense, for better or worse. For others, the defense.
Offense (giveaways)
Kentucky #68 → #T3
Wake Forest #63 → #2
Texas #2 → #T61
Oregon #T8 → #T61
Defense (takeaways)
Baylor #64 → #T5
UCLA #T57 → #1
SMU #T4 → #T66
K-State #2 → #62
Ranked per game among 68 P4 teams (Notre Dame included). 2026 thru Week 9 vs full 2025 regular season.
#CFB #BBN #SicEm #GoBruins #MIZ #WPS #HookEm #PonyUp #EMAW #GoDucks #GeauxTigers
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Arkansas Play Calling Update, wk9
….Top three most successful plays of the season were called a combined twice against Missouri. One wasn’t called at all.
✅ GOOD
- Reduced Checksowns. It was not working prior to Missouri
- Reduced OZ Split Read. It was not working prior to Missouri.
- Comebacks had not been called prior to Missouri, we added it and 2 of 3 were successful.
❌ BAD
- Best plays prior to Missouri: top three were called a combined twice against Missouri (PA Boot, Shock, Curl Switches)
- Most called plays vs. Missouri: we called Verts and Dagger 7 times, when they have worked 1 out of 10 times prior to Missouri
Data: @clarkbrooks_On3, cfbquant.com
#wps #cfb #arkansas #sec
Is play calling improving, independent of strength of opponent defense?
Share of our snaps spent on plays that DON'T work this year (35% or
less) vs plays that DO (50%+).
Share of calls doesn't care who the
opponent is, so this is the same test every week.
- Plays that don't work: Georgia 32% of snaps, Tulsa 18, A&M 26,
Tennessee 23, Vandy 19, Missouri 11. Lowest since the opener.
- Plays that work: Georgia 21%, Tulsa 33, A&M 19, Tennessee 30,
Vandy 36, Missouri 33.
- Stricter test, using only what was known at the time (plays that had
already failed through the previous game): Tennessee 38% of calls,
Vandy 23%, Missouri 14%. Plays that had already worked: 25%, 25%,
29%. Season high.
- The run menu is where the learning shows. OZ Split: 29 calls through
Vandy, 8 worked. 1 call vs Missouri. Off Tackle: 20 calls in the 4
games before, 3 vs Missouri.
- What hasn't moved: Dagger is still in the plan (1 of 9 coming in,
called 3 times). The best passes (PA Boot, Shock, Shallow, Curl
Switches) still average about one call a game. Gap runs went from 18%
of snaps at Vandy back to 10%.
- Success rate by week: 53, 32, 45, 41, 32, 43, 49, 41. The mix is
improving faster than the results, and the results include 4
turnovers and a monsoon.
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The committee put Alabama 8 spots ahead of the team that beat them. Our net rating has Bama 2nd and Tennessee 13th. 2-2 vs the top 25 against 1-2.
Schedule rank: 4th vs 24th.
🐯 LSU is 1st by net rating. The committee has them 14th. Zero wins vs the top 25.
🐻 UCLA is 8-0 and 4th by net rating. Ranked 8th with the 74th-toughest schedule.
Full 25 in the card, with the gaps. 📊
#CFBPlayoff #CFB #RollTide #GBO #GeauxTigers #GoBruins
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First time since 2016 that Arkansas has had 3+ evening kickoffs in Fayetteville in one season.
Noon has been marquee match-up window for a minute. Which was always odd why we weren’t in the window where people would watch no matter who was playing. Overnight it’s flipped with all other things held constant.
#WPS
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*everyone who has acknowledged for 2+ years that Disney Inc. and sports betting companies have rigged CFB acts surprised when the highest ad revenue driving teams with losses are ranked over undefeated teams with no losses*
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Amazing how arrogant they get after those contracts that are 5+ years long with guaranteed pay, that’s funded by their audience, are signed. Could you imagine if a CEO reacted like this at a shareholder meeting? The moment a coach acknowledges he will not embrace portal bc of a personal bias against it, or whatever it may be, he no longer fulfills the duty he agreed to when he signed his contract.
The only SEC Defenses to have faced four Top 25 offenses: Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Auburn, South Carolina.
Only three teams have faced just two Top 25 offenses: Tennessee, Arkansas, and UGA.
UGA is the only defense to have faced less than four Top 50 offenses.
Top 50 Offenses Faced
* Texas - 7 (4 top 25 offenses)
* Tennessee - 4 (2 top 25 offenses)
* LSU - 4
* Oklahoma - 5
* Alabama - 6
* Kentucky - 4
* Texas A&M - 4
* Missouri - 4
* Georgia - 3 (2 top 25 offenses)
* Florida - 6
* Auburn - 6
* Ole Miss - 6
* South Carolina - 6
* Miss State - 5
* Vanderbilt - 4
* Arkansas - 4 (2 top 25 offenses)
SEC defensive yards per game, SEC games only
1. Texas 264.4
2. Tennessee 288
3. Georgia 307.8
4. LSU 317
5. Alabama 335
6. Oklahoma 358.2
7. Missouri 365.2
8. Kentucky 373.7
9. Ole Miss 380
10. Texas A&M 380.2
11. S. Carolina 390.3
12. Florida 391.3
13. Vandy 394.6
14. Miss State 409
15. Arkansas 411.8
16. Auburn 434.7