Jonathan

I really don’t think there was a conspiracy to push TOP. The party survived for a long time after the departure of its founder, which is more than can be said for the Internet, Mana, United Future and probably in due course New Zealand First Party. Because it hung on, due to irritatingly tenacious work by people (largely unthanked) it was around and about when its hour came round at last. Most of life is about showing up and the rest is timing. It got a push by the media but no more than it received in 2017. Media attention is required but no sufficient. What was more influential was the malaise caused by the cost of living crisis causing generalised discontent plus the hardening of all Parliamentary parties into left nd right camps. It didn’t get a universally easy run of things and Jack Tame really showed Wong up in her first interview. By the time of the second interview, she clearly knew what she was doing and that’s what happens when you combine aptitude and experience. Yeah they’ve had a bit of a charmed run and that’s unlikely to continue as the reality of power disabuses them of their high falutin ideals. I wouldn’t bet on survival anymore than I would have bet on United Future staying over the 5 pc threshold after 2002. I am the furthest thing from a supporter but fair is fair. They stuck it out and adapted and finally learned how to do elections properly.

Yesterday’s election confirmed what so many already knew -National’s list MPs were never getting back in. The maths never lies. The writing had been on the wall for a long long time. Losing talented people is incredibly sad and i'm gutted for some of them. But strategic voting helped National win electorates and create an overhang to counter the left’s almost flawlessly executed overhang strategy. Without it the centre-right would have little chance of forming the next government. The left used the rules of MMP. The right had to do the same to have a chance. The numbers show a 20% increase in vote splitting on the right from the last election. The message clearly gained traction and thankfully has given the centre-right a real chance of forming the next government. Yet 706,000 party votes still went to National without adding seats beyond its electorate wins. Essentially wasted votes. I do wonder whether @NZNationalParty should have understood that maths and been more upfront about it with voters. Once the list seats were out of reach the success of the right bloc should have become the priority. We can be sad about losing good people and still recognise why strategic voting made sense. The maths doesn’t change to suit party loyalties. For me this comes back to the future we want for New Zealand. We should remember the damage history shows socialist and communist economic policies have done when they crush incentives to build and invest. They shrink the pie and drive out talent and capital. Then politicians act surprised when productivity falls and living standards go backwards. Sometimes I think the left forgets how much our living standards depend on businesses creating jobs and wealth. You cannot keep promising to spend more without backing the people who make that possible. At ZURU we employ hundreds of people here and plan to grow that to thousands over the next decade. Around 99.5% of our projected revenue of more than $10 billion next year will come from overseas. We are fighting to bring more of that wealth home and create opportunities for talented Kiwis to build careers and eventually businesses of their own. We need more companies doing that. More investment. More well-paid jobs. A bigger tax base to pay for better hospitals and schools. Higher living standards for everyone and better support for our most vulnerable. I want young people to see a future here and families to get ahead. That takes a country willing to back people who build things and create wealth. That is what I care about. Far more than any one party. At the end of the day I want NZ to kick ass.

National's vote on the night is basically where the last opinion polls had it and higher than the 26% thereabouts that it was earlier. It is quite possible that Seymour's leadership on fiscal issues enticed right leaning voters and that NZF's hard campaigning also bore fruit.