Jonathan

Fixed it for you

And your numbers aren't linked to change inside October They're barely linked to change at all That's certainly not an argument the campaign did anything

ACT and NZF had been polling higher for months before the campaign, because National was awful. National being awful was why their party vote shrank below their seat count. The cumulative result of 3 years of disdain. All happening before October, before the campaign:

One signal that the campaign was effective might have been a significant drop in National party support on election day from levels of polling, with a commensurate rise in the combined ACT+NZF party vote We didn't see that We didn't see any signal attributable to the campaign

Some of those would have been consciously splitting, some would have simply been shifting allegiance Either way, based on what pollins is available, it was all baked in before the campaign changed nothing Then there's this

I'll repeat, nothing shifted significantly from the polls prior to the SYV campaign If anything, National party vote was slightly up on election night from the previous polling

But then, there's this National total candidate votes significantly down, ACT+NZF up So much noise, such performative nonsense, such a complete waste was this campaign

Well Alia - you were wrong then and are still wrong now There's zero evidence of the campaign having any observable effect

ACT + NZF share of electorate seats actually INCREASED from 2023 to 2026 Lol Of course, mix by electorate matters. Tnere may have been consequential splitting But the SYV brigade are smelling their own farts

Meanwhile, over at the NZ Centre for Political Research page, Paul Dalley is very aggravated that National Party voters didn't think for themselves* *assimilate to the Borg and allocate their votes precisely to his direction Scratch so many 'conservatives', find a Marxist