CT Plumber Class of 2016

Moon
Joined September 2016
Sirtoshi ₿ 🐂 retweeted
“Democratising stock ownership” was a bit too long, we went for Artificial Inu instead
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Level headed builder and founder not many left in this industry like Nate. L()NGFOLIO
Reminder RH is a $100b company. It has 10+ lines of products which generate $100m rev each Not every single thing has to be related to RH chain. I’ve seen this sort of mismanaged expectations very closely on other chains. Focusing on internal strength and strong independent execution is the only way to align with larger corps. So far the only use case that clearly shifted priorities on the leadership level was the massive growth of RWAs led by LONG. We will keep earning fairly our influence. Stock by stock. LONG.
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Reminder RH is a $100b company. It has 10+ lines of products which generate $100m rev each Not every single thing has to be related to RH chain. I’ve seen this sort of mismanaged expectations very closely on other chains. Focusing on internal strength and strong independent execution is the only way to align with larger corps. So far the only use case that clearly shifted priorities on the leadership level was the massive growth of RWAs led by LONG. We will keep earning fairly our influence. Stock by stock. LONG.
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conspiracy theory: got paid off by pumpfun to fud
Hello @GoPlusSecurity, are you retarded? Who exactly are you hiring to come to such conclusions?
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OK, they've reached out and want to chat Good sign. Let's get this thing cooking again No one has hit the perfect combo of corp chain + on-chain vibes yet. It's possible, just requires a unique approach. Can still be done
Robinhood actually had the nerve to TEASE this? lol, lmao even Come on man. No public support at all for the chain in weeks now and promoting absolute GARBAGE Hey @RobinhoodApp and @RobinhoodCrypto if you want help finding people who can properly do this, my DMs are open
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Volume on Robinhood Chain has completed its steep fall off imo and has reached a base. While onchain will continue to be a difficult game to play until we regain momentum, think we will start to see some setups that are worth a buy here and there. Still prioritizing quality but keeping my eyes out for any short term plays. New tokens likely to do better than old tokens in this context. Volume is at pre-parabola levels not seen since July. Still hard mode, but likely some opportunities here. Watching closely (and not just RHC).
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We are LONG on every stock pair, this is PVE manifest. A long on LONG is a long on $AI.
🤖 Made with AI
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I've enjoyed Jake's coverage on Pearl. Even though I am bullish I think his criticisms are fair, I also think we have more common ground than it appears. Specifically: -Pearl's emission schedule is the number 1 bear case. A key aspect of a SOV asset is that price goes up, which is harder if you have indiscriminate sellers. -Concerns around transparency are also valid. Without a "fundamental" business / revenue line, narrative is the main driver of price. An absence of clear communication leads to uncertainty and doubt, which is detrimental to an asset that derives its value from social consensus. However, on the actual nature of the raise I disagree that it's bearish or leads to a conflict of interest: To me, token-equity concerns arise for revenue generating protocols, where value accrual is unclear as it is either diluted or completely given to equity holders that act as a senior tranche, with token holders suffering. Pearl Labs' equity raise causes no conflict of interest since the distinction is clear: Pearl is a SOV asset, while Pearl Labs is an AI infrastructure company that develops Pearl's proof-of-useful-work technology and commercializes inference services. Pearl Labs' success is accretive to the Pearl ecosystem but never extractive, since Pearl is not intended to accrue revenue. If anything the equity raise means 1) Pearl Labs is not reliant on selling PRL to fund operations, 2) it signifies there are powerful forces behind the success of PRL and 3) the raise will add hashrate to the PRL network. Very strongly disagree that Pearl Labs should introduce PRL buybacks. It would be the quickest way to add a token/equity conflict, as it immediately creates the question of how much value accrues to Pearl Labs vs the token. It also instantly reframes Pearl from an asset trading at 1/30th of ZEC's valuation to an overvalued 1000x P/S token. This is the counterintuitive thing about SOV assets: Flows >>> buybacks, even for huge revenue generating projects like HYPE (although buybacks matter a lot for narrative). Removing a business and letting an asset trade purely as an expression of an idea (e.g. AI BTC) removes company specific and execution risk, stops anchoring the token to a business that needs to grow in line with the price, and also removes its ceiling. The second controversial point is around centralization and the team mining 5% for themselves. Controversially, I think centralization matters less than people think, even for SOVs. Take MicroStrategy / Bitmine as examples. What matters is centralization among team/VCs who are going to sell. If the team mining a significant amount of tokens means those tokens are effectively out of circulation, I view this as bullish rather than bearish. Of course, this only holds true as long as they don't sell. Lastly I think it's important to contextualize that a lot of my bullishness comes from a regret minimization framework. Pearl is a nascent SOV, and the concerns around emissions / transparency are very valid. However, it is also one of the most exciting narratives. Just like there is a future where Pearl is insta dumped by institutions that mine it at a low cost basis, there is a future where powerful BTC miners and connected entities rally behind PRL as a new way to monetize their compute through inference, while hashrate increases and fears continue to grow around BTC's security budget. Thats why, while I see the same risks as Jake, I think that potential of exponential upside does justify a small position, even if just as a hedge to existing BTC/ZEC holdings.
not officially confirmed, but @TheMarker, israel's main business paper, is reporting that @prlnet's lab raised $130M from lightspeed, ribbit capital, and square peg. $55M in equity and $75M for a fund to build out GPU infrastructure. ribbit and lightspeed are also named as pearl backers on its profile in greenfield partners' disruptors 60 list. if this is real, the $PEARL bear case gets a lot worse. here's why: 1) $PEARL traded on a "no VCs, fair launch" story. pearl's code doesn't allocate tokens to founders or investors, and that part is probably still true. but the lab behind pearl is reportedly VC-backed, and nobody corrected the narrative while it pumped. 2) the value goes to the equity, not the token. the lab sells inference and gets paid in USD, and the VCs own the lab. $PEARL holders don't get any of that revenue, just diluted by new supply. so the investors can do well even if $PEARL goes to zero. 3) it goes against the "sovereignless bitcoin" pitch. part of bitcoin's monetary premium is that no company controls it. pearl's upgrades are drafted by a VC-backed lab, including the FP8 fork that would tie mining more closely to inference, the same business the lab sells. 4) the $75M GPU fund. we don't know if those GPUs mine $PEARL. if they do, the company is collecting a share of ~85% supply growth this year, on top of whatever insiders mined early. remember that about 1/3 of today's supply was mined in the first 6 days. 5) zcash had investors too (20% of its early block rewards went to founders and investors) but that was public from day 1. everyone knew who got paid and how much. pearl hasn't disclosed any of that. holders deserve to know: > who invested > whether any investors or insiders hold $PEARL > whether the GPU fund mines $PEARL a fair launch shouldn't need a newspaper to tell you who's behind it. i was a $PEARL bear on friday. i'm a bigger one now.
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No doubt a choppy market, but lots of budding strength in the long-tail while $BTC bleeds, suggests to me the market isn't losing its risk appetite, rather long-term oriented investors continue building positions in places where they see value. There's a formidable wall of worry out there, and if it's scaled (likely after midterms?), the results should be explosive.
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Last bear market bottom vs current PA.
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gMOO🐮 SpaceX, Nvidia, and now Dell. These are the companies that could massively benefit from "fudding" memory sector to gain an upper hand in negotiating deals with memory chip makers, and they are all super memory hungry! But ALL of them have publicly admitted that the memory shortage will only get worse over at least the next 2-3 years, while the market is panic selling the memory stocks for the AI bubble bursting fear. No one knows what's going to happen in the market, but the fundamentals of the AI stack are much more predictable and reliable than the price action. In the end, they always converge. Eyes on the ball. Moo that
CEO of Dell, Michael Dell, sees memory shortage getting worse in 2027 and not easing anytime soon: "I think it's going to get worse in 2027 based on what I see right now. The reason is it takes about 4 years to build a new memory factory, there are a number of them under construction. Micron, for example, we are a big Micron customer. Those factories will start producing in 2029. Maybe 2029 everything will be fine." "The way people are using the technology now is very different than a year or two ago, with agents." Via @WSJ $DELL $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY $SNDK
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Sirtoshi ₿ 🐂 retweeted
Over 13,500 tokens have launched paired to $AI 🙈 Now more than ever, you should go loooong.
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More utility on the chain More integrations in the app More to do (and build) with Stock Tokens More work to be done
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Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts. HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback. Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.
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ANTHROPIC'S IPO DOCUMENTS ARE CALMING DOWN THE MARKETS. None of the numbers released today are that different from what we heard last week, but now we know how much cash they have. Anthropic has $120B in cash and is likely raising $100B on the IPO. They are then likely going to be raising another $100B in debt, $60B of it already financed by BlackStone. If you assume a 3x in ARR, which probably is low considering how much the street wants them to grow, this company should have around $300-$400B in cash. This also doesn't take into account the future ATMs they might engage in. So, the reason AI stocks are getting some relief right now is because it seems like Anthropic will have enough cash to pay their bills, which obviously is good for $NVDA, $SPCX, $AMD, $AVGO, $MU, and many other players. However, there are going to be 24 separate unlocks in 2027. Those are going to be days where the market has to deal with a massive amount of supply coming onto the market. The company effectively has unilateral control, not shareholders, on deciding to pause or slow down the release of models. The open-weight models continue to be a threat as more enterprises are seeing the value in owning their AI for a significantly cheaper cost. Anthropic has outlined all these risks in the S1. Regardless on if you are buying the IPO, it seems like there is enough cash they can raise to continue paying their bills and making sure the downstream value flows into most of the semis...if the market changes their mind on that or Anthropic stalls in growth, those names get hit. But if the company keeps growing and raises cash, the money should be there to fund the semis...it's now a question on how much of a risk people want to take in actually owning the stock.
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Anthropic is a very impressive business - a few charts after having ai run through the S-1. Not much of a single stocks guy and a thousand smarter analysts pouring over this rn than me but my surface level take is it’s a very strong business. In terms of the future outlook, feels like the key risk here is the sustainability for frontier models to sell tokens at a high margin or whether it gets commoditized down as use case needs for the average person begin to reach an asymptote where the marginal new frontier model doesn’t change the quality of experience and output for the average task. There will always be a need for frontier tokens by a certain subset of users but feels to me like the question is whether the average Fortune 500 company prefers a frontier token vs the commoditized one. There’s also the dynamic around data privacy. How willing will companies be to fork over their company info into training data vs build their own model trained on open weight models. On net, the company seems highly sustainable short term and liquidity ratios are very solid, but the outlook on demand for premium high margin tokens is the key question.
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Thanks Jake for the reply. Want to provide more color from my perspective as well on your updated positions. 1. The team doesn’t talk about price, token, etc. It is true but it is also purposeful. If you look at their public comms it is entirely related to technical developments and project progress. Transparency is important no one is arguing this. This is a bottom up adoption thus far with the team relying on tokenholders to help with adoption and information. This is very similar to other enduring PoW networks where the community and various factions do a lot of the heavy lifting to help the network grow. Regardless, team has stated clear disclosures are coming imminently which should address most of your transparency concerns. 2. Team mined less than 5%, I assume you are referencing my reply here. Good detective work can also verify this, team also mentioned they will confirm it shortly. 3. I doubt the GPU fund buys H100s, it will likely want to rent/buy B300s, so you need to revisit your math here. I understand concerns around centralization of hashrate, but even ~1,000 B300s would only represent low single digit % of network hashrate today. Compare that to Cypherpunk’s 16% hashrate share on Zcash. So this isn’t as centralizing as you think, and less even a method to bootstrap more hashrate, considering they are already well on their way there. In my view, it is moreso a way for the lab to further align themselves with the token. 4. Pearl is an L1 blockchain, it is not meant to represent any exposure or interest into a business entity. The only thing Pearl Research Labs can be to the blockchain is net positive imo. It is not siphoning cash flows away from token holders, etc. It is a completely separate business / investment. 5. Same comment as above. An equity/token split is mores a concern with something like Venice, where the team is actively deciding whether to allocate cashflows to token holders vs equity holders. This is not even close to the situation here. I like your suggestions to improve comms and good ideas on additional token value accrual, they are constructive. Some of them make more sense than others for the reasons I lay out above. While I disagree with the overly bearish posture, I do greatly appreciate the continued public debate, because open conversations like this need to continue happening if Pearl is ultimately going to succeed
got some good pushback on my $PEARL fundraise post. here's my response to the main points, and how i think the team could fix them. 1) "this fundraise has been known for months." no it hasn't. it's been a rumor, and an unverified one. one of israel's largest business papers, @TheMarker, published the exact details yesterday ($55M in equity and a $75M GPU fund). that's the first time we’ve gotten actual numbers on it, and the team still hasn't confirmed it. this goes back to transparency. why isn't the team announcing or confirming this? why do holders have to find out through rumors and business papers instead of directly from the team? 2) "pearl's whitepaper clearly states that difficulty was lowered for the first 10% of supply to fund operations." the issue is again transparency. that's 210M $PEARL, ~59% of today's circulating supply, or ~$380M at today's price. we don't know how much of that the team mined, how much they still hold, or how much they've sold. one reply says the team mined less than 5% of the network. maybe, but the team hasn't published anything that lets holders check that. 3) "they raised capital to build a GPU farm to add hashrate to their own network!" yes, more hashrate is better. i agree. but if that fund mines $PEARL (which it almost certainly will), it centralizes the network around the team even more than it already is. the team ships the code and the upgrades. $75M buys roughly 2,500-3,000 H100s, which could make the lab one of the largest miners on pearl. as someone put it, "whoever controls the majority of the network's hashrate ultimately decides which chain gets secured..." so we're comfortable with the dev controlling a growing chunk of the hashrate, without disclosing how much? that takes away a lot of the credible neutrality and decentralization that make blockchains, and especially SoV assets, valuable. 4) "trying to accrue value to the token would invite additional valuation frameworks, which can only result in a lower valuation ceiling." i disagree. $PEARL is a lot less credibly neutral than other PoW assets like bitcoin, zcash, or even monero. it's also missing what monetary assets need: > low inflation (supply grows ~85% this year) > deep liquidity (~$8M of daily volume) > transparency from the team (undisclosed holdings + fundraise) > years of evidence that it works (it's 6 months old) so right now, the SoV case is weak, and a second source of value would help, not hurt. look at ethereum. it's valued as an infrastructure token (it returns value to holders thru staking and burns) and as a monetary asset (it's the main collateral across DeFi, it's the gas currency for ethereum and most of its L2s, and ~$18B of it sits in spot ETFs). a claim on value accrual gives a token fundamental support. monetary premium is the most fragile part of a token's price. when zcash's orchard bug was disclosed in may, $ZEC fell ~50% in two days even though nothing about its fundamentals changed. 5) “there is no equity/token split. pearl research labs is an equity business AI lab, completely separate from the token." this isn't accurate. they are not completely separate. the lab ships the code, the early low-difficulty window was set up to fund its operations, and its GPU fund will likely mine $PEARL. and the part that is separate is the part that makes money. that's what an equity/token split is. here is the test i use: > does the lab make money without the token? yes, it sells inference in USD. > does the token share in that revenue? no. > are any buybacks programmatic? no. > could the lab keep growing while $PEARL falls? yes. so the business and the token have to be valued separately. if $PEARL went to zero tomorrow, the lab would lose its mining subsidy, but it could keep selling inference on its own GPUs. the counter is that the team holds $PEARL, so their incentives are aligned with holders. but that only goes so far. the team also owns equity in the lab, and so do VCs who may not hold any $PEARL. when the token and the business want different things, like whether inference gets sold for USD or $PEARL, the lab will answer to its equity holders. and we still don't know how much $PEARL the team holds, whether any of it is locked, or how much they've sold. there are ways to fix this though: 1) TRANSPARENCY. disclose how much $PEARL the team and investors mined and hold, how much they've sold, who invested, and what share of the hashrate the lab controls. for a SoV asset, this is the most important thing a team can provide. it's why @blockworks has a token transparency framework. 2) FIX TOKENOMICS. accept $PEARL for inference, and burn the $PEARL that comes in instead of selling it. that adds demand for the token and helps offset miner selling. (i know. i know. "this is a SoV token, it doesn't need utility bro!!" but as i outlined above, it can/should have more than one source of value). 3) USE THE REVENUE FOR THE TOKEN, NOT THE TEAM'S AND VCs' POCKETS. most or all of the lab's inference profit should go to buying back and burning $PEARL. make it a fixed policy with burns sent to a published onchain address, not a verbal promise or something left to discretion. 4) CAP THE LAB'S HASHRATE. commit to keeping the lab's own mining under a set share of the network, and report it publicly. 5) TIME. supply growth drops to ~33% next year, ~18% the year after, and ~12% after that. by then the team could prove it's a credibly neutral dev, and $PEARL could have a real case as a SoV. bitcoin is 17 years old. zcash is 10. $PEARL is 6 months. if the team addresses the first four, i'll revisit my bearish view.
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More bears taken out back, please 🫡
Q4 rally starts this week.
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I don't understand the people rooting for Robinhood Chain to die. It's the best chance we have at getting back the volume we had on Solana in 2025. I don't think the recent decline is all on the Robinhood team, but they could have done better. So here's what I think went wrong and how they could win back their market share, because we should all want Robinhood Chain to come back. Distribution was the whole point A lot of Robinhood Chain's success came from the hope of distribution to the 25M customers on the main app. That's what brought the volume in the first place: the dream of reaching buyers outside our CT echo chamber. Listing $CASHCAT in the main app accelerated that. Today over 20% of its supply sits in Robinhood wallets. That tells us, and the team, that app customers really do want onchain tokens. We expected it to continue. Robinhood would help push tokens past their usual ceilings by putting them in front of a far bigger customer base, like they did with $CASHCAT. That didn't happen. $PONS ran to almost a billion dollars and Robinhood did nothing. Coinbase listed $PONS before Robinhood did, and Binance listed $AI before Robinhood did. Distribution is why these coins went so high in the first place, and after $CASHCAT we got no help. The chain needs leaders A chain is a living ecosystem. It needs leaders who give it direction and bring it to life. Vlad and the team were very active in the first 60 days, and that's why everyone traded there. As the summit got closer, the team went quiet and focused on other things. That's when we started to dump. It began to feel like Base, where the founder is out of touch with the trenches and slow to react. Then the summit itself gave a lot of people hope for a roadmap, or anything that pointed the chain in a direction. We got nothing. The chain wasn't mentioned once. Chain TVL is at an all time high, because RWA tokenization works. That doesn't mean anything else works. Builder support is missing too. The Robinhood account has recently interacted with some projects on the chain, which is good. But formal support would help aspiring builders a lot: grants, hackathons, audit help, market making and incentives. It can still be saved All of this makes it sound like the chain didn't work out. It can still be saved if they act now. 1. Engage with the chain. We need a founder who's in touch with the ecosystem and engages with the cool stuff being built. 2. List more onchain tokens than $CASHCAT. The goal shouldn't be to kingmake one token. It should be to support the whole ecosystem by showing that any token can make it into the main app if it builds something good or gets enough attention. That's what keeps traders on the chain. 3. A formal builder support. If that means growing the team and bringing in more onchain natives to help the chain grow, make it the priority. Put a hackathon, grants and general help on the roadmap. Nobody expected the chain to grow the way it did. Now it's time to adapt to the growth. You still have the chance to revive the trenches here. @vladtenev @JohannKerbrat @fern
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