Political scientist studying international security as Senior Fellow in Defence Strategy & Industrial Policy at the International Institute of Strategic Studies
Washington, DC
Joined March 2010
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Jonathan Caverley retweeted
Cheap missiles, #drones and uncrewed vessels are making sea denial accessible to states and non-state actors. Naval power can defeat attacks but cannot guarantee commercial confidence. Freedom now depends on resilient routes and markets: Jonathan D. Caverley & José Alberto González Aranda or-f.org/40599 #MaritimeSecurity
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
What happens to global trade when its most critical sea lanes are blocked at once?
From a 76% plunge in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to drone and missile threats in the #RedSea shipping is shifting from efficiency to survival.
At #Sagarmanthan2026, David Loosley (@BIMCONews), Juras Taminskas (@LRsusisiekimas), Suliman Almazroua (@MawaniKSA), @AblaAlatif, Shubhransh Srivastav (@DP_World), @jcaverley discuss. Moderated by & @MalikAshok
Watch. youtu.be/soOogYOW66s?si=a-9e…
#MaritimeSecurity
An essential resource for me!
Good morning! As a periodic reminder, for those who don't know and may be interested, I put out a semi-regular (i.e., when I feel like it) "Daily-Ish Update" covering the US-China military balance / competition.
You can subscribe for free and read it here:
thomasshugart.substack.com
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
Good morning! As a periodic reminder, for those who don't know and may be interested, I put out a semi-regular (i.e., when I feel like it) "Daily-Ish Update" covering the US-China military balance / competition.
You can subscribe for free and read it here:
thomasshugart.substack.com
We seem to live in a counterintuitive world of both proliferating sea denial capability and continued growth and resilience of the global maritime economy. The role of naval power in managing this environment is far from clear to me.
Cheap missiles, #drones and uncrewed vessels are making sea denial accessible to states and non-state actors. Naval power can defeat attacks but cannot guarantee commercial confidence. Freedom now depends on resilient routes and markets: Jonathan D. Caverley & José Alberto González Aranda or-f.org/40599 #MaritimeSecurity
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
Cheap missiles, #drones and uncrewed vessels are making sea denial accessible to states and non-state actors. Naval power can defeat attacks but cannot guarantee commercial confidence. Freedom now depends on resilient routes and markets: Jonathan D. Caverley & José Alberto González Aranda or-f.org/40599 #MaritimeSecurity
Thanks for sending. I think there's a good strategic logic for reliable wartime logistics and this is likely the most cost-effective route. But US built, US crewed, and US flagged is very expensive. I think we need to pick one or at most two.
Respectful and constructive debate on US forward presence in the Western Pacific between two analysts i respect deeply.
Thanks @tshugart3 for engaging with my argument. For me, the below is the key point, though I also don't think any amount of dispersion makes a FIC posture survivable or wise for the United States. In part, this i because of how I define U.S. interests. But, it is also a difference between U.S. in how we see the lessons of the war in Iran and the limits of what more dispersion can accomplish.
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
Thanks @tshugart3 for engaging with my argument. For me, the below is the key point, though I also don't think any amount of dispersion makes a FIC posture survivable or wise for the United States. In part, this i because of how I define U.S. interests. But, it is also a difference between U.S. in how we see the lessons of the war in Iran and the limits of what more dispersion can accomplish.
I found myself playing an uncharacteristically optimistic role on an outstanding panel at #Sagarmanthan2026 on "Chokepoints and Shockwaves: Securing the Arteries of Global Trade." Thank you to @orfonline for another constructive and thought-provoking Dialogue!
@jcaverley: We actually live in the golden age of maritime commerce. Seaborne trade remains at all-time highs. Ships are cheaper, bigger and thus more flexible to take alternative routes. Insurance markets are robust; finance is diverse, deep and quite liquid. The world has never been better equipped to handle a crisis like this.
#Sagarmanthan2026 #GreatOceansDialogue
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
US use of shipbuilding, in which China holds overwhelming advantages, as a tool in trade wars with allies will further entrench Chinese market power.
@jcaverley and Peter Dombrowski on America’s fraught quest for maritime dominance.
FREE TO READ | go.iiss.org/4ryk3XQ
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
US use of shipbuilding, in which China holds overwhelming advantages, as a tool in trade wars with allies will further entrench Chinese market power.
@jcaverley and Peter Dombrowski on America’s fraught quest for maritime dominance.
FREE TO READ | go.iiss.org/4ryk3XQ
Both sides are working hard to undermine the other's industrial strengths. The United States is trying to build more ships at home, while South Korea is trying to replace US propulsion, sensing, and munitions in its own warship.
My first gig as an @IISS_org senior fellow is a great conversation with @lamikim on the roles South Korea could play in US commercial and naval shipbuilding. There are massive potential gains from comparative advantage between the two counties. However...
The inaugural episode of the Korea Chair Programme’s K-Defence podcast is out now!
Can South Korea help close America’s shipbuilding gap?
Dr Lami Kim and Dr Jonathan Caverley explore what closer ROK-US cooperation could mean for the future of naval shipbuilding.
Listen now:
🎧 go.iiss.org/4ANG5Kv
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
E.g. how come S Korea sustains a navy ~twice as big from an economy ~half the size (while also fielding a huge land army)? Ditto a Japanese economy of ~about the same size? Why can the smaller French/Italian economies sustain slightly bigger fleets* with much better availability?
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
I have an article on the US Govt’s latest salvo in its (erstwhile?) allies’ direction in the @spectator this week…
BLUF: it’s true that the Western ‘middle powers’ are a disparate bunch. But the more the US coerces them, the more it incentivises them to align away.
China is not a global hegemon and may not even want to be a global hegemon. But the episodes depicted here are classic examples of the role played (sometimes unwillingly) by a global hegemon.
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
I personally believe it would have made an enormous difference, as I argued in the piece below. Ukraine needed modern weapons to better match Russia’s capabilities, especially at the start of the war, before China, North Korea and Iran got involved.
reader.foreignaffairs.com/20…
Jonathan Caverley retweeted
Sounds familiar
