Roberto Guido

Starlink shutdown exposes Russia’s military dependence Russia’s dependence on American technology shatters the Kremlin’s invincibility narrative, leading to a slowdown in advance on the front. Claims of Russia’s invincibility became a central element of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine as we examined in our recent article. Faith in the greatness and self-sufficiency of the Russian army has been turned into a mantra of Kremlin propaganda. However, the war against Ukraine has shown the world that this narrative, like the myth of Russia’s technical superiority(opens in a new tab) over Western weapons and technology, is far from the truth. The recent disconnection of Russian troops from the Starlink satellite communications system vividly confirms this. The Russian troops have been left unable to coordinate, slowing down their advance and leaving space for Ukraine to push back. Blind and deaf In early February 2026, Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian territories faced an unexpected disaster. Overnight, the Starlink satellite communications system crashed(opens in a new tab) across the entire front line. Meanwhile, official communications stations operated by the Ukrainian defence forces continued to operate without interruption. The Russian suffered a severe blow, leaving the invading forces cut off from command posts. The disruption of Russian army Starlink terminals caused serious problems with inter‑unit coordination, logistics and the use of drones of various types, both ground‑based and aerial. According to the Institute for the Study of War(opens in a new tab), the blocking of unregistered Starlink terminals significantly complicated Russian military operations and limited their ability to carry out tactical strikes, consequently leading towards the slowest advance in two years. Opportunity for Ukraine Putting on a brave face, the Russian FIMI machine reverted to its familiar tactic of denying reality. Kremlin mouthpieces claimed(opens in a new tab) that troop command and control remained stable thanks to a complex and diversified communications network. Russian military leaders insisted(opens in a new tab) there were no losses and that the army was not dependent on Western communications terminals. Some Russian units, the General Staff asserted, had allegedly used Starlink terminals solely to mislead Ukrainian forces. The reality proved otherwise: ‘All we’ve got left now, are radios, cables and pigeons,’ says a Russian soldier in an intercepted transmission cited in Politico’s(opens in a new tab) reporting. Without reliable communications, Russian troops lost the ability to effectively control drones and maintain defensive positions. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine seized this opportunity(opens in a new tab). Within weeks, Ukrainian defence forces liberated eight settlements and more than 400 square kilometres of territory, taking advantage of the collapse of Russian command and communications. In February 2026, for the first time since the Kursk Offensive, the Ukrainian Defence Forces regained control of more territory(opens in a new tab) than Russia had managed to capture. The Ukrainian offensive continues, as do the Russian army’s communications problems. Russia’s own Starlink? Currently, Russian military correspondents and analysts are actively promoting a familiar narrative, urging battlefield units to remain patient until the Russian army’s alleged invulnerability is restored. Officials have also claimed that Russia is preparing to develop the Rassvet satellite constellation(opens in a new tab), presented as an analogue to Starlink and described as superior to existing systems. According to official statements(opens in a new tab), the first satellites are expected to be launched into low Earth orbit as early as the first quarter of 2026. The Kremlin’s experts further claim(opens in a new tab) that the initial objective is to deploy at least 300 satellites, with the constellation eventually expanding to up to 950 satellites. As recently as January 2026, Russian outlets quietly reported(opens in a new tab) that the launch of the first 16 experimental low‑orbit satellites had been postponed indefinitely. The satellites had originally been scheduled(opens in a new tab) for deployment in 2025, with official plans envisioning 156 satellites in orbit by 2026. Instead, delays and production shortfalls continue to push the timeline further back. Meanwhile, Moscow has been promising(opens in a new tab) a rapid build-up of its own broadband constellation since 2023, including frequent rocket launches carrying dozens of satellites. In reality, progress has stalled(opens in a new tab): only a handful of experimental satellites are currently in orbit, and experts remain sceptical(opens in a new tab) that Russia can deploy a functioning network anytime soon. The ‘Russian Starlink’ is beginning to look less like an imminent breakthrough and more like another technological promise that is quietly unravelling. The fall of the myth of technological superiority While the Kremlin’s propaganda machine continues to paint a rosy picture for Russian communications specialists, Russia currently lacks a fully fledged replacement for Starlink, and none is expected in the near term. As a result, Russian troops have been forced to rely on ground‑based communications, in some cases literally laying cables(opens in a new tab) under fire from Ukrainian forces. No matter how loudly the Russian disinformation machine promotes its latest weapons and technological breakthroughs, the underlying reality remains unchanged – the army hailed by some as the world’s second strongest has depended heavily on American civilian technology to wage its war.