Writer and consultant, mainly on Latin America and author of recent books on Lula and Bolsonaro. Aurora Brazil analyst, ex FT journalist, SWFC fan
London, Latam, Sheffield
Joined February 2009
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Richard Lapper retweeted
The issues with academia summed up in one tweet
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Richard Lapper retweeted
By fleeing for the United States, Flávio Bolsonaro has escaped prison -- and probably ceded the Bolsonaro family's role as the leaders of the Brazilian conservative movement.
First rate assessment from my esteemed former colleague John Authers on the markets' over reaction to Lula's triumphRisks - especially fiscal risks - there definitely are but this is a big buying opportunity. bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…
Absolutely agree Nick but will the PT elders stsnd for a Rede politician moving centre stsge. Many activist loathe Marina and her party
Richard Lapper retweeted
Lovely review of The Cauldron @ft today: “A riveting look at the cultures, ideas and maddening complexity that made the modern region, both incredibly erudite and marvellously well written; it is a riveting deeply absorbing work that stands out for the grand vistas that it opens up before diligent readers…."
@DrRadchenko @wnbooks @Ed_Critica @KlettCottaTweet @CappelenDamm @Planetadelibros @AAKnopf
The Cauldron by Simon Sebag Montefiore — how the Middle East became a fiery brew ft.trib.al/6qz48mN
Richard Lapper retweeted
I live in Brazil and have made ZERO election-related market recommendations.
Bolsonaro is an absolute idiot.
Any normal boss or business owner would find it utterly disgusting to mock a worker for losing a finger on the job in a factory.
Coming from a daddy’s boy who has never worked outside politics? Oh, my... 🤦♂️
Richard Lapper retweeted
My remarks from this piece:
An insightful piece well worth a read: politico.com/news/magazine/2…
Thanks! Hopefully helps understand the man's resilience and make this latest extraordinary comeback intelligible.
Richard Lapper retweeted
The claim that extending voting (only partially executed) was a corrupt trick by the incumbent (through his former lawyer on the Supreme Court) is greatly weakened by the fact that Flavio’s own campaign also asked for voting to be extended, albeit in specific weather-affected areas (which are also, of course, right-wing strongholds)
Richard Lapper retweeted
I expect Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognize the result to be less disruptive than his father’s refusal to concede four years ago. Unlike Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, Flávio does not control the government. Nor did he spend months before the vote, as his father did, casting doubt on the voting machines, a campaign that convinced many of his father’s voters; Flávio did so once, in July, and then backtracked. Finally, Lula’s margin of more than 4 million votes, about twice his 2022 margin, is probably too wide for a claim of irregularities to persuade many beyond the Bolsonaros’ core supporters.
So true. Tarcísio would probably have won in the first round. Flávio's first round win triggered a vitally important shift in strategy and tactics in which Janones, a non PT politician, has played a crucial part
If Flávio loses, Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to back his son over Tarcísio de Freitas will be widely seen as a decisive error. Many on the right will argue that Tarcísio, who polled better against Lula and was the centrão’s favorite, would have had a better shot. Jair, aware of his son’s weaknesses, chose to keep power in the family.
Great to see people finding Lula! The Man The Myth useful for understanding the man's trajectory and resilience. Essential background to making sense of an almost unbelievable second half comeback
@onLatinAmerica I finished this a few weeks ago, and it definitely helped to read it as I covered this historic election in Brazil. Highly recommend this biography!
Richard Lapper retweeted
@onLatinAmerica I finished this a few weeks ago, and it definitely helped to read it as I covered this historic election in Brazil. Highly recommend this biography!
Lula's victory on Sunday was extraordinary, 'inexplicable' to his opponents perhaps but not to those of us watching the way in which Lula revitalised his flagging campaign over the last fortnight. Good to see people turning to my book the background on the king of comebacks
Completely true: more sour grapes from the family that questioned Brazil's electronic voting system and then backed an attempted military coup.
Given a margin of more than four million votes, roughly double that of 2022, a decision by Flávio Bolsonaro to question the result is unlikely to produce meaningful consequences. The two-hour extension of voting, criticized by some on the right, is not enough to sustain a campaign alleging fraud, not least because Flávio’s own campaign had asked for longer voting hours in several states.
