What’s happening near India right now is slipping under a lot of headlines. Cyclone Arnab appears to have just explosively intensified into a violent, compact, Category 4 drillbit. He is moving straight towards the dense populations of Andhra Pradesh, and could be nearing CAT 5 (AKA Super Cyclonic Storm) intensity as we speak. He’s less than 18 hours away from making landfall. Now, a combination of upwelling, shear, land interaction, and the onset of an EWRC should definitely weaken Arnab before he hits land. But this is still becoming a VERY dangerous situation, and that’s not even counting the inland flood threat from torrential rainfall.

Rain could be the most concerning potential impact from Cyclone Arnab in India. As the storm approaches Andhra Pradesh, a dual interaction between a tropical disturbance to Arnab’s south and a trough to the west will slow his forward speed. 300+ mm (~1 foot) of tropical rain could fall as a result, with hours of downpours potentially inundating the coastal communities of AP the worst. Arnab’s winds will trickle away if he takes this loopy approach to landfall, but the increased flooding risk and prolonged tidal surges would unfortunately outweigh the benefits of weakening. Water, not wind, will be the most dangerous hazard from this cyclonic storm.