
Longevity Village Community dev // Head of Liquid @SteroidsCap // Co-Founder https://xitter.cf/t.co/0s7nC2w1Hm // Intern to @cathnivore // Long HYPE, VVV, TAO, DRV, XAUT
Aikihabara, JP
Joined November 2008
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On my top signal bingo card I have:
- Hyperliquid $100, hits top 10 by mc, flips Cardano
- USDE to flip USDC, ENA to $10
- Total crypto mc breaks 10T$, Total stable mc breaks 1T$. Circle IPO.
- Fartcoin $10, @gammichan appears on SNL
- @jimcramer has declared with certainty @spx6900 is going to flip the stock market. @MustStopMurad is interviewed on CNBC/Bloomberg.
- BTC hits 240k on 4/20. PUPS 1$
- Fixed apr's on stables hit 100%+
- Top 10 influencers are >50% AI agents
- @AndreCronjeTech abandons Sonic and takes a sabbatical. $shadow hits 1B fdv.
- Sol flips XRP, SOL to $1000
- Pudgy's hit 100 eth floor, Luca Netz IPO's Abstract/Pudgy IP. Top streamers are paid millions per stream on @AbstractChain .
- Disney signs contract with @StoryProtocol to put Marvel and Pixar IP on-chain
hey what's this...
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Eriik retweeted
Something historic is happening across the West, and the legacy press can't see it, because the press is part of what is collapsing.
Peoples who were told for forty years that they had nothing in common are converging. Americans, French, Italians, Danes, British, Dutch. Different languages, different histories, and the same conclusion reached at the same time. They have all seen the same thing at work in their own countries: what the French call islamo-gauchisme, the alliance between the radical left and political Islam. And they are all saying no.
To understand why their hegemony is close to total collapse, you have to use their own concept. "Hegemony" comes from Antonio Gramsci, the Italian Marxist who understood that power doesn't rest on force. It rests on consent, on people accepting a worldview as obvious, as the only respectable one. That's why the left spent fifty years on what one German activist called the long march through the institutions. Universities, newsrooms, publishing houses, cultural ministries. Own the narrative and you own the country.
But hegemony has a weakness Gramsci himself understood. It dies the moment consent dies. And consent is dying everywhere at once.
They are losing the media war. In the 1970s, around 70% of Americans trusted the mass media. Today it's less than a third. In France, the gap between what the TV news says and what people see on their own street has become a joke. The gatekeepers lost the gate. An engineer with a phone can now reach more people than an evening news broadcast. The monopoly on the narrative, the foundation of the whole edifice, is gone.
And reality is finishing the job. Look at France. A movement that started in high schools ended on October 17 with city halls stormed, Limoges city hall burning and looting across Marseille, while the radical left blamed the police. The French saw it with their own eyes, without a filter. Today's polls show the radical left's candidate losing a presidential runoff by roughly two to one. You can deconstruct a text. You can't deconstruct a burning city hall.
Then comes the blow they can never recover from: abundance.
Collectivism has always been a politics of scarcity. Its whole logic is that the pie is fixed, so someone's gain is someone else's theft, so the state must take and redistribute, ration and control. That's why its latest form is degrowth. Planners need scarcity the way fire needs oxygen.
What is being built right now makes that logic obsolete. AI is collapsing the cost of intelligence. Robotics is about to collapse the cost of labor. Reusable rockets have already slashed the cost of reaching space. Elon Musk and thousands of builders like him are proving every day that the pie is not fixed. It can grow faster than anyone imagined. In a world of abundance, envy loses its grip and the planner loses his excuse. And AI does one more thing: it ends opacity. When any citizen can trace public money in minutes, the networks that live in the dark have nowhere left to hide.
So what comes next? Two things, in this order.
First, the reckoning, and this is where we have to be better than them. There will be no purges and no lists, and nobody will be prosecuted for having been wrong. Being wrong is not a crime, and we will never become what we fought. But aggravated corruption is a crime. Public money diverted to networks, fraud, abuse of office: those must be investigated, proven and judged one by one, by independent courts, with evidence, due process and the presumption of innocence. We don't jail people for their ideas. We jail people for stealing. That difference is the whole difference between a free civilization and the regimes we oppose.
Second, the reunification of the West. That doesn't mean another supranational empire run by unelected officials, which is the model that failed. It means a West of strong, sovereign nations that choose to work together. Agreements between countries that control their borders, produce their own energy, build their own AI and defend themselves, and that trade and cooperate as equals because they share the same foundations: the free individual, the rule of law, the right to build.
Gramsci's heirs spent fifty years winning the institutions. They are losing them in five, because they forgot that hegemony only lasts as long as reality cooperates.
Reality has stopped cooperating. Now it's our turn to build.
🤖 Made with AI
and so the weak men become strong again. Their own good intentions in the last 30-40 years paved the way to their own hell, now they are burning in it, it will harden them, their motivations from hatred will start to dominate, the long road to the cleansing has begun
brilliant 1
) Prepare for the 2028 socialist state, by pre socializing 99% of your assets. Better you give it away then to have someone take it from you
2) Stop being the no.1 target for socialists by becoming the no.1 socialist. Next: everyone gets free home and food on Mars?
Eriik retweeted
My thesis on $ORBIO and a Darwinian market for intelligence
I’m in crypto because I hate the system
I’m in Thailand because I view paying 50% of my income as indentured servitude
When I see someone “pivot out of crypto” it reminds me of guys who “sucked dick once just to try it” but are back to Jesus
I've sold everything, except my robinhood:0xaa07a0e9209e16ac99708c3ec70159c6ef3128a3
Orbillions
@0x_aster @zeroxkyle @MrCable0x @The0xJose
best tweet of today
I don't think the tokenization story is well understood - so let's break it down
Basically - the US Government is in vast, unprecedented amount of debt. And its long term debt is selling off a lot (40%+ over 5 years) - while Gold is up 140%. Gold has crossed US treasuries as the #1 asset held by other Central Banks.
The buyers for US debt - China, Japan and Europe are stepping away for different reasons. Geopolitical conflict. Currency related. Political difference.
The government is afraid of running out of buyers for its debt. And it's worried about the liquidity of markets. Historically, this concern is much worse when the Fed is hiking and there's high inflation. As typically the response to unstable debt markets is easing (buying debt).
Therefore, the US government is very incentivized to allow Stablecoins. Stablecoins hoover up US debt. Tether has different balance sheet behavior than banks and works closely with the US government.
Stablecoins used to be assumed to be criminal operations and were prosecuted by the USG. Now they're welcomed to Washington DC.
When you are worried about your reserve currency status, you also want to ensure the dollar is accepted in many places. So stablecoins not only serve as a buyer of US debt, but a promoter of the US dollar globally.
Enter CBDCs. Europeans see the US government promoting US dollar stablecoins as a matter of foreign policy. Visa and Mastercard going heavy in the space. And see Tether freezing Balances along with the DOJ and say, "We cannot have this. We don't want Trump to be able to use the US dollar in negotiations with us. Therefore we have to digitize our currency"
Europe and the UK also have fiscal and political problems. So the perverse incentive to digitize their currencies is not just to ensure 'monetary sovereignty' but also to potentially implement wealth taxes, or balance based transaction taxes. This is also the flip side of wide adoption of US dollar stables. We don't call it a CDBC, but its basically an extension of the government. Balances are frequently frozen. Other policies could be implemented under the left.
So rising global debt -> US support of stables -> pressure on Europe to do CBDCs to respond.
The US is then incentivized to grow the stablecoin market as fast as possible. Stablecoin's usage is primarily driven by speculation. Holding it as collateral for perpetual swaps. Keeping it on exchanges.
The problem: crypto doesn't have lots of good assets to trade. Bitcoin has been very volatile. Most altcoins collapsed. This slowed the growth of the Stablecoin market, which has basically flatlined year to date. Scott Bessent wanted us to be going at 40-50% CAGR not 0.
The question then, is how to create appealing speculative markets. The answer: on chain stocks, and prediction markets.
Big picture, if you want a lot of stablecoin balances. You need to have good things to trade. Over the past 6 months the 2x leveraged Micron ETF traded more than Bitcoin in dollar terms. Trade XYZ launched commodities, and stocks and commands a large % of volume on hyperliquid. Prediction markets are growing fast.
The losses incurred by retail investors in these markets are substantial. They are allowed for the same reason Casinos are allowed on Native American reservations. Necessary evil due to funding pressure and the geopolitical factors I described above.
This is, at a high level, why we are talking about crypto in the middle of a war with Iran. And why its' consuming the executive department's attention. The US Dollar is ultimately a matter of national security.
This is true regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans are in power. Both have debt and spending addictions. Both are reliant on the US Dollar.
But now zoom out: what do you have? You have a bunch of governments adopting digital ledger technology in the middle of a war. Freezing peoples balances. People don't want their balances frozen. They don't want it to be subjected to a wealth tax.
Enter Z Cash. Over the past 5 years, ZK technology has improved substantially allowing fast, private transactions. Orchard and Halo since 2022 evolved from something Niche to something usable. The EU tried to ban Monero. Exchanges delisted it. Its price increased.
Z Cash is open source. Vitalik is also prioritizing adoption of ZK technology on ETH. You can move ETH relatively privately on Railgun already - but real private transactions are on the roadmap.
ZK proofs can be accelerated by GPUs. Due to the AI boom, the number of people with access to GPUs and agents capable of accelerating proofs has skyrocketed. Not only can this technology facilitate private transactions but also proofs of reserves that allow trustless accounting for portfolios. This tech is commonly used at crypto exchanges to prove reserves, and algo stables such as Ethena.
Thus - it's not just that we are set to own a bunch of shielded Z cash, as a base asset. It's that you can swap anything on ETH privately. Including stables. Relatively soon. And you can do so for provable reserves.
Privacy is incredibly important for large institutions doing financial transactions. They're not concerned with the tax authorities, but rather front running. Slippage. And people hunting their positions or slow moving exits.
Many big institutions own multiple days of volume in equities that could drop the price 30%+ if the market sniffed out they were selling. And intervene in FX markets, routinely interacting with banks fined billions of dollars for illicitly trading ahead of their flows.
So a meaningful increase in tokenized trading volume inherently will require privacy. As real institutional counterparties require it. Retail is a great market and is less privacy sensitive, allowing initial growth. But for the big players to enter -- you need that.
It's not just trading desks that care about privacy. You cannot run corporate treasury functions publicly. People could sniff out that you're doing M&A, or figure out what you're doing -- giving up competitive positioning unnecessarily. At the same time blockchains can offer corporations major cost savings for finance functions. It's estimated - for example, that a properly implemented CBDC could save companies in Germany billions of dollars a year in corporate finance banking fees.
There are three basic approaches to Privacy. Z cash style. Private, permissionless neutral chain. Canton style: basically segregated databases that interact with each other on chain as little as possible with a permissioned validator set. And private blockchains - which simply deal with the issue by not having a public ledger or bolted on cryptocurrency people are tracking
The argument for a permissionless neutral chain (aka a cryptocurrency) winning is that
1. there's no real reason to trust a banking consortium (i.e. what Canton does)
2. governments hate each other and are only doing CBDCs out of geopolitical pressure in a realpolitik environment. we wouldn't be here if Trump wasn't antagonizing Europe and Canada wasn't talking about joining the EU
3. the tech exists, so why would you want a counterparty in between things if you don't have to
The world in which crypto loses would be that governments come to an accord about how to do this. China and the US maybe resolve differences. Nationalism subsides. And people say, "You know what, the externalities of all this gambling and absurd crypto shit are not really worth it - we should just have a consortium of nations and corporations for a global CBDC"
There is another world where crypto loses. The debt problems go away bc we enter an age of productivity and abundance. In my opinion, the reason AI people hate crypto so much natively is that crypto is a bet AGI isn't the economic Hail Mary it's marketed as.
regardless, we are in neither of those worlds right now. But crypto hasn't done great either. Why?
The big problem with crypto, from a valuation standpoint, is that it has never been clear how you pay for all the validators or miners without a block subsidy. And the only coherent way that happens is that on-chain volume, swaps, and trading 5-10xes.
The way that you get there is that high quality assets get tokenized and traded. But probably less understood is that an entire swathe of new assets hit the blockchain, and defi functions like borrowing and looping create carry trade and FX trading opportunities. So rather than pendle looping Ethena, you have looping with RWAs. This already exists to some extent in niche markets like Brazilian credit card debt (looped 28%+ APY) but is relatively tiny.
Just on this example, you might immediately say "that has huge FX risk", and you'd be right. Which brings a natural demand for FX hedging. Which will hit after you get internationalized RWAs on chain. Which will occur naturally after corporate finance functions hit CBDCs.
So you have a sort of promethean progression:
0. bitmex and native perp yield
1. weird crypto yield / credit risk [low quality pre FTX era]
2. ethena (systematized perp yield)
3. defi/aave/ pendle etc (levered yield)
4. on-chain stocks
5. on-chain perps
6. leveraged stock vs perp yield
< we are here >
7. private stock trading
8. institutional lending
9. direct corporate bond or equity issuance (USD)
10. CBDC facilitated corporate finance (EUR, GBP, NOK)
11. permissionless private fx swaps
<the promethean explosion>
12. looped international corporate fixed income
Note that the entire time I've talked so far, AI hasn't really been mentioned. AI makes all of this easier. The most concrete example is that the Norgesbank is vibe coding their CBDC with Claude. But more profoundly - eventually agents will be able to trade assets directly on chain.
investment management is becoming increasingly agentic already, with every major lab launching finance products. And banks rapidly adopting AI across workflows.
By the time you get to step 9 on the table above, there will likely be investable AI agents. Perhaps in gated jurisdiction. But there will be a new primitive of an agent with a verified balance, and business model that you can buy. The same way you'd buy a stock or subscribe to a vault, or hedge fund.
I think Step 9 (companies choosing to issue straight on chain) is therefore the most important thing to monitor given the sh1t show with Robinhood's CEO and AMC. Tokenized representations of stocks have major legal risk, and ADRs (American Depository Receipts) as an asset class have quite an ugly history of being banned or depegging (most recently YNDX just straight up went to 0 when Russia went into Ukraine). For you to get really clean on chain stocks, and fixed income that can be effectively looped for yield, you need the credit risk of the actual underlying legal structure to be very low.
You'll also want to see a proliferation of privacy and ZK accounting products take hold that interact with OTC trades, portfolio swaps, and FX as CBDCs come online. That's the boring bridge to the eventual wild future everyone was envisioning in 2023 where we have a bunch of Accelerando esque corporations existing entirely on chain, compounding capital and investing in their own training
The Track to Financial RSI is paved with Fomo, hyperliquid, gambling on Robinhood and seemingly irresponsible regulatory actions. At least, it seems mad until you consider the alternative. Illiquidity. And currency failure.
You can complain about Trump's ethics. You can stop Clarity. But the crazy train has already left the station. All aboard! It's not like you have a choice.
Eriik retweeted
The Cycle Turns
starkiller.capital/post/the-…
Do we have a 100% degree of confidence, no, that's not how a firm that runs quantitative models operates
Does the fact that we closed the entire short side of our book last month speak loudly to the level of our conviction, we think so
🤖 Made with AI
























