Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram) header
Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram) profile picture

Antifragile market participant. My beats are slamming from the rugged programming.

Cape Town, South Africa
Joined December 2007
Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)Photo by Lucky Luke (@ruggedprogram)
I made another Grand Tour dashboard. If you find a bug or have a cool feature request, lemme know and I'll probably build it!
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Lucky Luke retweeted
Vladimir Putin was put in charge of Russia at the end of 1999, to protect the men who had just sold the country for parts. But within four years, he had jailed the richest one, forced two others out of the country, and taken the oil back. Not many know this. Because the West has done a fantastic job painting a very different picture of Putin. To understand him, you have to know what the 1990s did to Russia. Prices went up about 2,500% in 1992, and everything an ordinary family had saved was worth nothing within a year. Life expectancy for Russian men fell from 64 to 57, which normally only happens in a war, and there was no war. By 2000, 42 million Russians were officially poor. Nearly a third of the country. None of this was an accident. Western advisers helped design it, and the International Monetary Fund lent Russia money on the condition that it kept going. In 1995 the government handed twelve of Russia's biggest companies to a small group of bankers for about $800 million all together, a tiny fraction of what they were worth. So when Russians who lived through that hear Western leaders talk about freedom and open markets, they do not hear an idea. They remember the years their money became worthless, their factories were given away to men who became billionaires overnight, and their fathers died at 57. President Boris Yeltsin and the people around him chose Putin because they thought he would be easy to manage and would leave the new owners alone. In July 2000 he called those owners into a room and told them they could keep their companies as long as they stayed out of politics. One of them refused. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was the richest man in Russia, he funded opposition parties, and he opened talks to sell a large piece of his oil company to an American oil giant. He was arrested in 2003, his company was taken apart and absorbed by the state, and two men who owned television channels left the country. Nobody needed the rule explained twice. Then, Putin paid Russia's debts instead of borrowing more. In 2006 he cleared the last of the old Soviet Union's debt in a single payment of $23.7 billion, years ahead of schedule, and kept government borrowing low for fifteen years after that. He also ruled that whenever oil sold above a set price, the extra money went into a national savings account instead of being spent. Poverty fell from nearly a third of the country in 2000 to 7% by 2024. Much of that was oil getting expensive rather than anything clever, but Russia stopped being a place where men died at 57. What the West misread about him had nothing to do with communism or empire. Putin wanted Western money, Western machines, and Western customers. What he would not accept was a deal where foreigners owned the oil fields, the oil was priced in somebody else's currency, and the payments ran through somebody else's banks, because that hands the other side a switch they can turn off whenever they want. He said this out loud at a conference in Munich in 2007, and Western officials heard it as a threat rather than as information. Ukraine was not a surprise either. In April 2008, NATO announced that Ukraine and Georgia "will become members." Two months earlier, America's own ambassador in Moscow, William Burns, who later ran the CIA, had warned Washington that Russia would not negotiate on this and would treat it as a military threat. Washington went ahead anyway. Russian troops were in Georgia by August. Russia took Crimea in 2014. The Minsk agreements were supposed to settle the fighting that followed in eastern Ukraine, and Germany and France signed them as the outside powers who would hold both sides to their word. In December 2022 Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor at the time, said the real purpose of Minsk had been to buy Ukraine time to prepare. France's president then said the same thing days later. So who came out ahead in this Ukraine war? European factories ran for thirty years on cheap Russian gas that arrived by pipeline, and it is gone. Somebody blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, Denmark and Sweden closed their investigations without charging anyone, and no country has ever been held responsible. Europe now buys American gas that arrives frozen on ships and pays far more for it. Its chemical and fertilizer plants are shutting or moving abroad, many to the United States, and its governments are buying weapons again, mostly from the American arms companies that spent twenty years selling into the Middle East. Russia had $300 billion of savings sitting in Western accounts, and it was frozen in Belgium. Every central bank outside the West watched that and learned their money can be taken. Russian oil goes to China and India now, sold at roughly a quarter below the market price, and the refineries buying it keep that difference. Russia's central bank has interest rates at 14%, which crushes anyone who needs to borrow, and expects the economy to grow by close to nothing this year. Russia also sold 44 tonnes of gold in the first six months of 2026, after twenty-four years of buying it and almost never selling. The spendable part of that national savings account has fallen from $113.5 billion in 2022 to $51.6 billion. He is paying for this war by selling the savings he built to prove Russia could never be starved out. How the war ends is also already written down. In December 2025 Zelensky published a peace plan with twenty points worked out with Washington, and eighteen of them were agreed. The two that were not agreed are who controls the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, and who controls the Donbas region. On the power station, the American proposal is that the United States, Russia, and Ukraine each own a third, with Americans running it. On Donbas, the American proposal is that Ukrainian troops leave the part they still hold and the area becomes a free economic zone. Russia calls that same land a demilitarized zone. Two names for one thing, so both governments can sign without admitting what they gave up. And about 40% of Ukraine's mineral wealth is buried under land Russia already occupies, including two of its four large lithium deposits. Ukraine's own government values what sits under occupied ground at more than $350 billion. Putin has publicly invited American companies to come and mine those exact deposits with him. So this does not end with America taking the minerals and Russia taking the land, because the minerals are under the land. Russia keeps the land, and pays for the world accepting that by letting American companies dig up what is underneath. Ukraine is the only country at that table that owns less in every version of the plan.
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Lucky Luke retweeted
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-W…
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You literally closed by account without reason and have kept nearly £12,000 you have not returned. You said it was because of Bitcoin, but I never used @wise to buy Bitcoin. It turned out it was because a Bitcoin company paid an invoice. You froze my account, froze my funds and have not returned a VAT payment that was sent to you.
Replying to @KarolisRudelis
We hear your frustrations. Please note that we never close accounts without a reason: wi.se/accountdeactivation As to replying: it can take some time for us to review your appeal or get back to you. For urgent questions, you can call us through our help page (1/2)
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Nothing says Claude wrote this email like "I need your steer" 🐮 I'm not lending you my cows, go get your own.
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Lucky Luke retweeted
Saylors ponzis nuking while BTC stays somewhat afloat The world is healing
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I’m not in the EU, so I’m not directly affected, but dismissing this would be a mistake. The EU is not acting independently. It is structurally subordinate to the BIS, whose power flows through the Federal Reserve system. The Fed itself is owned by member banks, which are ultimately controlled by large asset managers such as BlackRock, a firm that also sits at the center of the WEF ecosystem. This is not an ‘EU agenda’. It is a US-led corporate and financial agenda. Companies like Palantir are positioned to benefit, and they will get what they want: a digital ID framework and a CBDC architecture rolled out in the EU. The EU is the testing ground. What follows will be a privatized version in the United States, implemented through regulated stablecoins rather than an overt CBDC. If you are in the EU, you should not dismiss this. You should prepare. And if you are outside the EU, you should still pay attention, because this is the beta test for what comes next.
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Lucky Luke retweeted
The reason I still love gold paired with bitcoin comes down to understanding the amount of risk you take on for the return. Over the last 5 years, Bitcoin has not outperformed Gold and is where it's at relatively in 2021. In the meantime, Gold has had a 15% historical volatility, whereas Bitcoin at 55%. So with gold you could have had a similar return with a fraction of the volatlity. Now, if you're a swing trader (i am), and think you can time bitcoin, the higher vol allows you good upside if you can time things. But with the higher vol, you also would likely lower your size vs a gold long The two assets also have a pretty Bayesian correlation that ebbs and flows and generally the correlations complement each other in my opinion. Putting it all together, I think you have a really great pair when you own them together: - contrasting correlations - gold has solid returns for much lower risk outlay - btc has great returns but much higher risk outlay (good if you're a trader)
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Lucky Luke retweeted
Gold is like Bitcoin except it actually behaves how people want Bitcoin to, and it's getting twapped by literal central banks
INDIA REDUCES EXPOSURE TO U.S. TREASURIES WHILE BOOSTING GOLD HOLDINGS IN FOREX RESERVES
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Kanye fans the most ruggable market and it's not close.
ye(@kanyewest) launched the $YZY token. Note: Only $YZY was added to the liquidity pool with no $USDC. Dev may sell $YZY by adding/removing liquidity, similar to $LIBRA. Multiple insider wallets prepared funds in advance and immediately bought $YZY. Insider wallet 6MNWV8 knew the contract address in advance and even tried buying yesterday. 6MNWV8 spent 450,611 $USDC to buy 1.29M $YZY at $0.35 today and sold 1.04M $YZY for $1.39M, leaving 249,907 $YZY($600K), with a profit of over $1.5M. solscan.io/account/6MNWV8JFp…
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'I was wrong but my ideas were RIGHT!' Harvard since bought $117m of corn (at 500x higher prices than 10 years ago) plus a boatload of gold - very little MSM reporting on this.
Almost a decade ago I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities? Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy. This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book Our Dollar, Your Problem. Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest. cnbc.com/2018/03/05/bitcoin-…
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Strange way to run a treasury company, with Ichimoku trade signals. @MarkNewtonCMT you need to double your cloud settings. The real pullback target is $3,450. Also, man of the moment Tom Lee was 2017's version of Jim Cramer...
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paging @CarpeNoctom re: that ETH pullback target.
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if all your trades are borrowed ideas you're on borrowed time.
use your own brain once in a while.
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Lucky Luke retweeted
A high PPI due to portfolio management fees due to the stock market ripping is noise that everyone will forget about in a few days
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Can't go to war w/ China if they make all the parts and also cornered the raw materials market. Anyone who tells you different is either stupid or just another nationalist grifter. Also, this is a good thing.
With all the talk in mainstream media denigrating Trump’s tariffs, it is critical to understand that neoliberal free trade of the past 25-40 yrs have left the US begging China (literally) for military grade rare earths. Any tariff discussion that does not address this fact is 💩
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'seasonality' is dumb. tiny dataset in a rapidly changing space.
A coin can land tails 20 times in a row. That does not change its 50/50 odds. Now try to explain that to the avg person.
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$LQTY - this was the local top.
Can anyone tl;dr me the $LQTY bull case besides 'stablecoins' and 'Messi bag'? Genuinely curious. Who is the marginal buyer? Nice chart, at midrange resistance here.
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