You are here, I am not. Founder at Kuvera. Wealth at CRED.
Joined March 2019
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Millions of young Indian investors skip mutual funds (MF) entirely, believing they can generate massive, consistent outperformance by day-trading weekly options (F&O) on the Nifty or Bank Nifty.
SEBI’s data is stark and unyielding: over 90% of individual traders in the F&O segment lose money, with the average loss running into lakhs. Retail traders are bringing human emotion and basic charts to a highly leveraged game dominated by institutional algorithmic setups and high-frequency trading desks.
They treat trading like a lottery. A few early wins create an illusion of skill, causing them to scale up their capital. When a single volatile market gap-up or gap-down wipes out their entire trading account, they realize too late that they didn't just fail to beat the index—they lost the core principal required to invest in it.
In contrast, the average investors MF portfolio on @Kuvera_In is at ~11% XIRR, almost 4-5% more than FDs post-tax. Long term compounding and punting have very different outcomes. Choose wisely.
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
This is the reason why I choose a broad market, low cost index fund.
One is almost guaranteed to remain in Quartile 2 over long periods of time and even Q1 sometimes but never Q3 or Q4.
Only you understand this basic concept you will never pay 1% a year to your active manager🤩
Comparison across fund categories from peak of the market in 2024 till date…
Source: lnkd.in/p/deJiRbQ4
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
Reclassifications and ratings mostly record changes that prices have already reflected. Before reacting to one, an investor should ask how much selling came before it, whether the underlying problem is being fixed @rustapharian
Real life mimics the crude economist joke 🤦
Two economists walk through the woods and find a pile of feces. The first pays the second $100 to eat it. Later, they find a second pile, and the second economist pays the first $100 back to eat that one. Realizing they both broke even, one says, "We just grew the GDP by $200!"
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups.
The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues.
This is the extrapolation of Ken’s point. We will need to transition from speculative AI spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.
This hasn’t happened yet because most of the breathtaking revenue growth comes from LPs investing in VC funds who then send it to startups.
RT @jootawaala: No. 14 is now live on the website. Be one of the fifty to get it.
RT to show support. ❤️
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
One sentence macro model: On the way out the door, every farmer's wife says to every farmer, "the weather's looking bad so don't buy as much at the market this week, but also don't sell our crops for less than the usual price."
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany! marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Nifty 500 is clearly a buy here. But it will be a generational buying oportunity if and when the fourth leg turns.
Valuations are cheap ✅
Commentary is turning against owning stocks ✅
FIIs are selling ✅
Retail is selling (net SIP indicator) ❌
If you still think STT and STCG / LTCG relief is in the works…
Milton Friedman:
“In the long run, government will spend whatever the tax system will raise, plus as much more as it can get away with. That’s what history tells us.”
“So my view has always been: cut taxes on any occasion, for any reason, in any way that’s politically feasible, as the only way to keep down the size of government.”
In Aug 2013 the rupee was crashing and RBI cut the overseas remittance limit from $200,000 to $75,000 to keep dollars at home. It stayed cut for a year.
Today the rupee is at record lows again and the limit is $250,000. RBI has played this card before.
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
HODLer psychology. It’s not that there’s anything wrong with Alibaba. But when there are so many bulls and the stock barely budges, you know that there’s something wrong with the thesis. I feel the same way about many China e-commerce names.
$BABA is getting ready to SKYROCKET.
One day, people will look back at these prices and regret not buying Alibaba when they had the chance. The market is giving investors an opportunity that might not last forever.
Stay patient. Stay bullish. 📈🇨🇳
The only car I ever owned was an Alfa. They know how to style a car.
A future of boxy, utilitarian self-driving pods means a lot of beauty goes with it.
