VP, Product at https://teapaw.org/t.co/EDV8xeP8um | Building AI Brokerage Platform
Salt Lake City, UT
Joined March 2012
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The next couple of years are going to be a shit show. But, have faith, because an immutable reality of humans is reflexivity.
The challenge is that the chasm of reflexivity gets larger and larger each cycle this happens, so the whiplash is more radical.
Buckle up!
Just so you all know, a Dem sweep is bullish AF for SpaceX. Terrestrial data center bans = orbital data center demand.
What going full AI Coding agents look like. We're getting pretty close to an exponential curve. Got a couple of kinks to work out but our pace, for our industry, is unrivaled. Period.
Ryan Casey retweeted
Cheaper tokens don't mean cheaper bills
Since May:
- Average token prices are down 67%
- Token spend is up more than 120%
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
The "Rack Spread" is unfolding, token prices are falling while GPU prices climb
Change since mid-July:
- B300 GPU rentals up 106%
- B200 up 66%
- H100 up 17%
- Average token prices down 58%
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
Delta: Our wifi is best in class, we don't need @Starlink!
Me trying to get work done on the plane:
Ryan Casey retweeted
The length of software tasks AI agents can complete has doubled roughly every 7 months since 2019, and recent models are moving even faster, from 30 seconds of human work in 2022 to a full workday today.
Yet inside most companies, AI still isn't trusted to reliably update records in Salesforce. "AI does not have an intelligence problem," says Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi. "It has a context problem."
Ali's answer is what he calls a "system of record for agents."
From the latest Profiles of the Future by @bhorowitz and @mikemcg0 on Databricks & the Future of the Firm: a16z.news/p/databricks-and-t…
Ryan Casey retweeted
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected.
Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions.
Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent.
But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models?
We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem.
Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…
A while back, I tweet about how we should be watching El Salvador from an imperialist perspective.
I still hold a belief that taking over the vast majority of central America will be very easy for a country like El Salvador (command/conquer).
And now... look at Haiti. 👀
The most strategic play an enterprise can make right now is prioritize the development of a graph-based data schema. LLMs on top create such an asymmetric advantage, especially with propriety data.
Ryan Casey retweeted
Kalanick thought he was in survival mode when he had 20,000 people working for him. Ben Horowitz says that's one of the most dangerous ideas a founder can carry.
"He thought he was in survival mode when he had 20,000 people working for him, and that idea is dangerous when you have such a big organization."
The instinct that gets you to 20,000 employees is the same instinct that can wreck the organization at that scale. Not because the founder goes soft, but because the behavior gets amplified down eight levels of management.
The obvious lesson is that founders need to scale their leadership style. The less obvious lesson is about signal amplification.
Every behavior a founder normalizes gets replicated and distorted down the org chart. The founder pushing to the edge reads as intensity at the top. By the time it reaches a middle manager under pressure, it can read as permission. The problem was never the founder's edge. It was the absence of a system that kept the edge from becoming a norm for people who didn't have the context to use it right.
Ryan Casey retweeted
Token prices keep falling and GPU rental prices keep rising
Intelligence gets cheaper, usage goes up, and a model ends up in every piece of software
TypeSafe AI's Diogo Almeida on why Jev is called Jev, and what cheap intelligence finally changes about software:
"It's wild that AI is so cool and software has been unchanged in 10 years... The most we can do is add a little chatbot in the side sometimes that can take actions, but not all actions."
"TypeSafe is making AI for software. We want to make AI powerful, not just for humans in the loop, but to actually build real software."
"It's about the laziness to spend 10 hours to do the five-minute task instantly and to never have to do it again. It should be an ROI decision for people who automate stuff. I would just like it to be automatable."
"I think that people will just make new kinds of work, hence the Jev in Jevons. New kinds of work once that stuff is doable."
"As we have lots of intelligence at lots of different cost and speed trade-offs, the super systems-y types will be making trade-offs. Jev's gonna be 1000x too smart for them. They just want an approximate guess to optimistically route here and there."
Martin Casado: "The good news is we get to rebuild systems again. We have a new primitive. It's kind of a new way of thinking about doing software."
@CompleteSkeptic @typesafeai @bhorowitz @martin_casado
Bullish for tech salaries. This was wayyyy overdue.
.@VP: "There has been no company in the United States, unfortunately, that has abused this system more than Microsoft."
Microsoft laid off 6,000 American workers in 2025 after certifying that it could not find qualified American employees — yet the company was approved for more than 6,000 H-1Bs and filed 3,682 PERM applications, including nearly 1,000 applications for the same positions as the laid off American workers.
We are so so so early into this cycle...
98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet
More charts in State of Markets II: a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
You have no idea how early we still are... we've barely scratched the surface.
"Every 10 seconds, global token demand is around 31.7 billion in 2026. By 2030 its 1.27 trillion, a 40x increase."
~ Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon:
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The token explosion is about AI moving from human-paced interaction to Agent-paced activity.
every useful action has a hidden bill: context must be carried, memory must be updated, sensors may need to be interpreted, and mistakes must be caught before they become expensive.
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From "Reuters" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
The more you create diffusion of innovation in an enterprise, the more your software architecture matters.
The speed at the edges of an enterprise is insane right now. Building on shaky architecture is a recipe for disaster.
