Physician, former airline pilot, educator, investor and options trader. I’m a fiscal conservative that strongly opposes the delusions of MMT 🐑
United States
Joined April 2021
- Tweets17.4K
- Following584
- Followers6K
- Likes16.5K
The amount of excess that has to bleed off here to match reasonable valuations is staggering.
1 step at a time.
7500
Have a good night.
- these levels were set based on gamma exposure/net OI charts and my interpretation of where the juice was for the day at around 830am. These levels work. Consistently when you manage risk. If you haven’t figured out how to use them and you’re trying to reinvent the wheel, whatever. There’s plenty of help out there and it doesn’t involve reading taro cards. You can even see them coming in before the day of if you sniff around. 1 week ago I posted about targeting 7600/7500P into EOM. This was a modification from 7500/7400 that I thought I saw earlier.
- worked a night shift and set these up before bed this AM. First was a small scalp
- left about an order of magnitude on the table today compared to what I had on the table last night for today, but risk management is a thing and so is sleep
- the aapl was a 0DTE 345p play from close yesterday, 0.4 to 1.59 rolled down/OTM for November exp. Will probably close that for now before 4pm, or maybe I let it run.
-only loss was a protective call spread that was made to break even on the put premiums if we tagged 7700 ES. Short leg on that set to buy back at near worthless and let the long leg (also near worthless) run into close
-chronicity from bottom to top. Circled the large money maker.
- dead cat bounce to crush some of the IV into election, the first wave of selling was front run. Expect a crap ton more info EOY.
I post what comes to mind and I’ll play devil’s advocate so careful what you read into this 😂
1. Decent chance of a drop tomorrow. May see the SPX 7690-7700ish retest that I expect to fail prematurely into early overnight. Could also just flush.
2. VIX into Wednesday doesn’t look terribly aggressive (yet) so at the moment I’ll look out for signs of an incoming volatility mini crush into the high Tuesday-Wednesday IV’s.
3. Democrats are likely to take control of the house and senate. They will have a press conference as soon as possible declaring this and likely suggesting multiple investigations of the current administration’s shenanigans.
Thats what I would do if I’m feeling diabolical. Both parties will want to blame each other for max pain and there’s nothing like the strangling that goes on before the other party takes over and can be held responsible.
After every trade and piece of news I reanalyze if the cards in the dealer’s hand are the same. There’s a LOT to digest after that day and that close.
Rampant put selling throughout the day was in fashion
At first glance ES 7720 was a good balance point to end the curb session (5pm ET). We overshot that by a bit.
