@WSJ Middle East correspondent covering Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Formerly @Reuters in Saudi, Iraq, Egypt & Lebanon. Got a tip? [email protected]

Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabi
Joined May 2009
Stephen Kalin retweeted
There’s no shortage of demand for Gulf money: Rebuild Gaza & Lebanon Invest in Syria Pay for regional waterway security Buy trillions of dollars’ worth of US goods One problem: The Iran war has probably wiped out almost two-thirds of the region’s investment pool this year 1/5
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Almost every event in Riyadh before year end now cancelled - with FII so far still committed to going ahead
Official Joint Statement | Golf Saudi & Asian Tour 2026 Saudi International.
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Probably the most honest note anyone has issued yet: JPMorgan throws up hands, says it has no clue what happens next. "For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame." cnbc.com/2026/09/17/jpmorgan…
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
You can say what you want about Iran but they're definitely pretty unique in their communication: never seen a country threaten another with a math equation before 😅 For those who didn't get it: there is a famous monetary policy formula used by the Fed called the "Taylor rule" that says a central bank's policy rate (i) should equal the neutral real rate (r*) plus target inflation (π*), plus 1.5 times the inflation gap and 0.5 times the output gap (the "i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*)" part of Ghalibaf's formula). Ghalibaf adds α(SOH−SOH*) and β(BEM−BEM*): SOH referring to the Strait Of Hormuz and BEM to Bab El-Mandeb. Both have positive coefficient, meaning the more those chokepoints are choked, the higher the rate the Fed would have to set to fight the resulting inflation. In a nutshell this is Ghalibaf trolling the Fed, telling them that Iran is - in a very real way - setting American monetary policy.
Straits Taylor Rule: i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0 Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :) You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it. Stay unanchored !
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Once again, a Gulf leader discovers that years of investing in Trump gets you nothing Also, sure, air strikes could help, but they don't fix the underlying issue: Saudi-backed forces in Yemen are disorganized and ineffective, and the Saudis themselves (who have a modern air force of their own!) are reluctant to get too involved for fear of consequences After the rupture with the UAE earlier this year the Saudis made a lot of claims about how they were consolidating the anti-Houthi camp and preparing for a fight. Clearly a bunch of hot air axios.com/2026/09/11/houthis…
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
My piece on the Colombian mercenaries - and their paymasters in the Emirates - is out as the cover story of the Financial Times magazine today. It's the culmination of months of interviews and data tracking with @just1nlynch ft.com/content/32592ab6-4385…
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
My favorite part: This Turkish catering truck nonchalantly moving from Air Force One to the other plane
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
With huge hat-tip to WaPo for a massive scoop, and matching some of their reporting, @EricSchmittNYT and me on the Trump admin ruse to fly him out of Turkey with AF1 and the reporters on board as unwitting decoys nytimes.com/2026/08/10/us/po…
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Saudi Arabia announces international maritime defense coalition to enhance cooperation in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden after hosting a meeting attended by 43 countries and the EU
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
4 takeaways from the latest Saudi growth data: 1. Iran war has hammered oil output 2. The pain has spread beyond oil but far less severely 3. Economy could avoid a 2026 contraction if shipping lanes gradually reopen 4. Recent US-Iran-Houthi-Iraq escalation threatens that outcome
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Obviously a bit skeptical that there is a battle plan to neutralize Iran's ballistic-missile arsenal in 10-14 days when it couldn't be done in 40. Assume for the sake of argument there is. The bigger question: then what? There would still be a threat to Hormuz traffic and Gulf infrastructure from drones and cruise missiles. This isn't to say Iran has unlimited capabilities, which seems to be a common (and obviously flawed) assumption. At some point even the drone program can be constrained, if not eliminated, and the economic crisis will be a growing burden. Key words, though: "at some point". Knocking out the ballistic-missile arsenal would blunt the threat to American bases in the region, which makes a prolonged war less costly for the Pentagon. But it wouldn't remove the threat to shipping and energy, and those are ultimately the pressure points that have been most effective for Iran. wsj.com/politics/policy/the-…
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Proud to announce a $100 billion private investment to redevelop a portion of an @ENERGY site into a world-class data center. Thanks to @POTUS’ Ratepayer Protection Pledge, developers committed to build and fund power generation for the project AND for the surrounding community.
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
The two wars have officially merged. Iran says a Ukrainian drone attack on its ship in the Caspian has killed a sailor. Ukraine earlier said it was targeting vessels ferrying arms between Russia and Iran on the Caspian Sea. reuters.com/world/europe/ira…
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Saudi Arabia in last 10 days • Hit Houthis in Yemen • Arabiya interviews Israeli President • Saudi-UAE ministers appear together • MBS 📞 Trump, Aoun • Trump approves civilian nuclear deal for Saudi Arabia: WSJ Comes amid US-Iran escalation, 3 mo before Israeli elections
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Civil Nuclear Cooperation with Saudi Arabia: Strategic Engagement Beats Isolation While nuclear proliferation concerns in the Middle East are valid and require vigilant oversight, a pragmatic U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear agreement offers strategic engagement that serves American interests far better than isolation. Building on bipartisan foundations from the Bush and Biden administrations, such a deal enables the United States to supply advanced technology and expertise under strong safeguards. This helps Saudi Arabia diversify its energy partnerships away from China while aligning its nuclear program with rigorous non-proliferation standards. Saudi Arabia possesses significant financial resources and multiple international options. Securing these projects would deliver substantial contracts to American companies, generating U.S. jobs, technological leadership, and export revenues. Pushing Riyadh toward less transparent partners would weaken U.S. influence and heighten proliferation risks. A well-structured agreement with robust verification mechanisms can balance Saudi Arabia’s energy needs with regional security imperatives. In today’s great-power competition, strategic cooperation strengthens alliances without compromising core principles. Engagement is wise stewardship of American leadership. @mgordonwsj @stephenkalin President Trump has formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment there wsj.com/world/middle-east/tr… via @WSJ
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Stephen Kalin retweeted
Trump has approved a new 30-yr deal w Saudi Arabia to provide the kingdom w a civilian nuclear program It means large profits for American companies. But it also raises concerns about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East wsj.com/world/middle-east/tr… via @mgordonwsj @stephenkalin
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