Írán, Střední východ a Masarykova univerzita, bezpečnost, politologie. Co víc si člověk může přát?
Brno
Joined April 2011
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Josef Kraus retweeted
UPDATE: 62% of voters say the war in Iran was the wrong decison; 74% say it was a "crucial" or "major" factor in their vote.
responsiblestatecraft.org/ir…
Josef Kraus retweeted
Crucial part of the madness: ". Israel can live with devastated GCC economies. The world cannot."
NEW: Several things are apparent as Iran-US diplomacy enters final stretch before a potentially cataclysmic confrontation:
1) It's all about sequencing. Iran is not likely to offer nuclear concessions upfront. Iran wants same two-phase approach as envisioned in Islamabad MoU, but can speed it up. Trump can get concessions but needs to offer something first.
2) Per Iranian NSA Rezaee, regional states like Turkiye and Saudi Arabia see themselves as next on Israel's hit list. This opens opportunities for realism.
3) Iran has probably never been as ready for direct and all-out confrontation with the US military. Ali Khamenei was terrified of war with America. With him out of the way, that fear is gone.
4) Qatar is doing its utmost to stop a war that may devastate energy and other critical infrastructure in the GCC. Israel can live with devastated GCC economies. The world cannot.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Today, 48 of the roughly 60 villages and towns within Israeli-occupied southern Lebanon are mostly levelled, a NYT analysis has found. nytimes.com/interactive/2026…
Josef Kraus retweeted
Major General Rezaei: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Agree on Regional Security WITHOUT Foreign Interference
Following today's Summit, Major General Rezaei, outlined key outcomes:
• REGIONAL SECURITY must be built by regional countries themselves, without foreign interference.
• ISRAEL must withdraw from Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon and southern Syria.
• “If our four countries sit together, many of the region's problems can be resolved.”
• “Despite all the American threats, three major countries came to Iran. That alone is VERY SIGNIFICANT.”
Major General Rezaei said the summit could mark the beginning of REAL, PRACTICAL cooperation among the four countries.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Senior officials from Iran, Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia have begun a four-way meeting in Tehran, hosted by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei.
Participants include Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin.
Josef Kraus retweeted
VOLBY V IZRAELI - Blízkovýchodní podcast č. 49 & @adamblistan podcast
👉 kontext izraelských voleb
👉 osadníci na Západním břehu
👉 situace v Gaze
👉 nová kniha je už v tiskárně!
youtu.be/WWCf_JaAFkU?is=MQMd…
Josef Kraus retweeted
As expected, Trump has rejected the Iranian proposal, interpreting #Iran’s stated desire to reach a deal as a sign of desperation and as evidence that pressure is working.
This only strengthens the argument of those in Tehran who maintain that the only way to reach a deal with Trump is to strengthen Iran’s position.
For that reason, I would not be surprised to see further Iranian escalation in the Strait in the weeks ahead of the midterms, with the aim of confronting Trump with an unpleasant choice: either accept a deal or return to an unpopular war and further erode the Republicans’ electoral prospects.
This does not mean that Tehran is not under pressure. To the contrary, it is precisely that pressure, combined with the lack of any prospect for a diplomatic solution, that may make military escalation seem like the only available option.
Trump on Iran:
They outsmarted themselves.
They said, "Let's close the Strait and cause a problem for the world." And then I came along, and we put up the greatest blockade ever in military history.
Guess what? They don't have any money now because they wanted to close the Strait, and we closed it on them.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Four years ago, Ali Khamenei and his inner circle were prepared to burn the country to the ground to impose the hijab on a society that had largely moved beyond such restrictions.
If someone had told me in 2022 where Iran would be in 2026, I wouldn’t have believed them.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Jordánsko 🇯🇴, aktuální Hormuz, Húthíjové +🍷🍻 & arak na Blízkém východě
aneb
BLÍZKOVÝCHODNÍ PODCAST №47
společně se @surowicz
👉 Jordánsko dnes i za časů Miloše Zemana
👉 aktuality z Hormuzu
👉 ofenziva Húthíjú
👉 alkohol a cigarety na Blízkém východě
youtu.be/VeF6wm13WTY?is=saLJ…
Josef Kraus retweeted
Po měsících popírání ze strany Donalda Trumpa a ministra obrany Peta Hegsetha je tady oficiální potvrzení od nezávislého inspektora Pentagonu: USA mají významné nedostatky některých druhů munice po obří spotřebě ve válce s Íránem. Zbrojní průmysl USA navíc není schopen při současných kapacitách díru v zásobách rychle zacelit. A to jde o konflikt se soupeřem 2. řádu. Kdyby USA nyní vstoupily do konfliktu se sobě rovnou velmocí, nedostatek munice a raket by mohl být rozhodující proměnnou pro jeho výsledek.
Akce Írán 2026 vstoupí do učebnic jako jedna z nejnesmyslnějších moderních válek, která:
- nepřinesla ani jeden z kýžených výsledků
- stála USA obrovské finanční a bezpečnostní náklady
- způsobila smrt tisíců civilistů a vojáků
- rozvrátila trh s ropou v Perském zálivu
- uvalila na celý svět uvalila nové a obří náklady na energie
- vyvolala riziko nové vlny inflace, zpomalila hospodářský růst ve světě a podnítila nové (nyní začínající) kolo zvyšování úrokových sazeb.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Pakistan turns down Saudi request to strike Houthis.
Pakistan says the Mecca Pact of mutual defense “doesn’t cover a pre-existing condition,” so it only covers wars started after the pact was signed. It also covers only state actors, not non-state actors (and perhaps preferably those within reach of Pakistani power projection).
Saudis won’t ask Turkey (the third partner in the Mecca Pact). If they did, Turks would happily deploy naval assets from their Somalia base. Turks itch to control Bab al-Mandab; a fight with the Houthis would give them an excuse. Saudis are not keen to replace Iranian occupation of Yemen and the strait with Turkey.
Pakistan says no military response discussed under Mecca pact over Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia reut.rs/3TifsfA reut.rs/3TifsfA
Josef Kraus retweeted
Yes sure. The same state that destroyed so many US bases, mastered hypersonic-evasive missiles & massively wore down the interceptor and missile stockpile of the US to “critical” levels & led the US to blaring red lights on economy and finance…. is totally stupid at mines.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Saeed Kamal Dehghan confesses that he made up an entire article about Iran stoning stoning adulterers.
"In the summer of 2010, a year after the infamous ‘Green Movement’ riots in Iran, several articles suddenly appeared
One was an article by The Guardian, describing a shocking incident involving the practice of stoning adulterers, which has not taken place in Iran for decades.The author has now come out and admitted that the entire article was fabricated, from beginning to end. Now imagine how many more articles are simply made up.
What makes it even funnier is that the author was named 2010 Journalist of the Year in the UK"
Josef Kraus retweeted
I renew my appeal for an end to the ongoing violence against the Palestinian civilian population in the West Bank, and I urgently call on the international community to work toward advancing the two-state solution, for a just and lasting peace.
Josef Kraus retweeted
+++ BREAKING +++ Russland und Iran einigen sich auf Gaslieferungen. Der iranische Ölminister Mohsen Paknejad gab bekannt, dass man sich auf die wesentlichen Bedingungen des seit langem diskutierten Gasliefervertrags mit Russland geeinigt habe, berichtet die iranische Nachrichtenagentur ISNA.
Das Abkommen sieht die Lieferung von bis zu 55 Milliarden Kubikmetern russischem Gas pro Jahr in den Iran über eine durch Aserbaidschan verlaufende Pipeline vor – eine Menge, die mit der Kapazität von Nord Stream 1 vergleichbar ist.
Der Iran wird das überschüssige Gas an andere Länder weiterverkaufen können, was laut Analysten über die 30-jährige Laufzeit des Vertrags jährliche Einnahmen von bis zu 12 Milliarden US-Dollar generieren könnte.
Der Prozess der Umleitung von russischem Gas von Europa nach China und Indien kann als abgeschlossen betrachtet werden.
Europa is raus. Alle anderen Länder sind drinnen. So einfach geht das.
Josef Kraus retweeted
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on negotiations with Oman:
The negotiations are ongoing, and given the technical complexities, a temporary route is currently being worked out. In my view, we are very close to reaching a final agreement.
However, this step should not be interpreted as a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on other conditions, including the United States making amends for its violation of the understanding.
Josef Kraus retweeted
An Israeli TV channel close to Netanyahu has attributed a quote to IRGC chief commander Vahidi basically saying that Iran has nuclear weapons. No Iranian official has ever made such a claim. So if true, it would be huge news.
Within the span of a few hours, Netanyahu and his Lobby in Washington are making references to the supposed quote.
There is no apparent trace of where the quote comes from, apart from Israel. Zero reporting in Iranian media.
And it curiously comes on the eve of a breakthrough in talks on Hormuz..
Josef Kraus retweeted
Trump just delivered Israel a major victory in Lebanon
@aviabelow for @JNS_org
"Lebanese President Joseph Aoun traveled to Washington seeking American pressure on Israel to withdraw fully from Southern Lebanon. He left without it. Trump refused. That refusal is a significant diplomatic victory for Israel, and specifically, for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
Lebanon walked away with a symbolic prize: restored commercial air links. Israel kept what actually matters: the strategic high ground in Southern Lebanon."
jns.org/opinion/avi-abelow/t…
