Partner at Morgan, Lewis & Bockius | Former General Counsel of the CFTC | The statements & views expressed are my own and do not reflect those of Morgan Lewis.
Washington, DC
Joined May 2025
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In most liquid futures markets, speculators account for the bulk of trading volume.
“Is it gambling?” is not the right question.
Rob Schwartz retweeted
⚖️ Could sports prediction markets reach SCOTUS in 2027? @FormerCFTCGC and I will preview the legal battle over where CFTC-regulated event contracts end and sports gambling begins.
#FIAExpo in Chicago, IL
📅 Nov. 3, 2:30 PM CST
Register here:
fia.org/fia/events/futures-o…
Rob Schwartz retweeted
We can’t sacrifice our humanity in the name of price discovery.
Betting on conflicts, airstrikes, assassinations and other serious events create a financial incentive to manipulate the most serious of events.
I spoke with Dustin Gouker of Event Horizon about how prediction markets create a new type of risk to the entities and third parties affected by their incentive structures.
🧅🧅🧅🧅🧅🧅🧅🧅🧅
🤖 Made with AI
The fight for onion futures continues today in Chicago.
For those wondering how we got here, Congress banned onion futures in 1958 following market manipulation. Decades later, Hollywood successfully pushed to add a prohibition on box office event contracts.
Apparently, this debate still has a few layers left to peel back. Watch:
There’s nothing funny about onions.
University of Chicago Students to Protest at Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Demand End to Federal Ban on Onion Futures
Student-led group For Our Futures will rally Monday morning to call for repeal of the 1958 Onion Futures Act
On Monday, October 19, at 8:30 a.m., members of For Our Futures, a student-led organization from @UChicago, will gather outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (@CMEGroup) headquarters to demand the repeal of the Onion Futures Act of 1958, a nearly 70-year-old federal law prohibiting futures trading in onions.
The Onion Futures Act, enacted following allegations of market manipulation in the 1950s, singled out onions for a prohibition on futures contracts that remains in effect today. For Our Futures is calling on Congress to repeal the ban and restore the ability of onion growers, buyers, and traders to participate in a regulated futures market. Onions remain the only commodity banned from futures trading in the United States.
The protest will feature a giant inflatable onion costume, protest signs, and dozens of students, and will take place outside the headquarters of CME Group, one of the world's largest derivatives marketplaces and the historic center of American onion futures trading.
DM for details
cc: @pointsnfigures1 @CharlesFLehman @matt_levine @nbcchicago @ABC7Chicago @cbsnewschicago @WGNNews @fox32news @WBEZ @Suntimes @BlockClubCHI @chalkbeatCHI @SeanCasten @mansourtarek_
ALT The "onion man" visits a meeting of the UChicago Democrats. Not affiliated with any party, candidate, or candidate committee. We are a bipartisan movement.
“Commonly known to the trade as a swap.” I’ve been saying this for a year and a half. To Congress. In print. Good job CFTC for picking up on this. A citation wouldn’t have killed them. 😡 morganlewis.com/-/media/file…
.@CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
Rob Schwartz retweeted
On stage discussing all things Prediction Markets with @mansourtarek_ @Kalshi Tom Sexton @NFA_News & @FormerCFTCGC @MorganLewisLaw @DigitalChamber Chicago Signal Forum!!
This might carry more weight with a body not comprised entirely of nerds.
Rob Schwartz retweeted
Predict 2026: CFTC, states battle over regulatory authority cdcgaming.com/predict-2026-c… via @CDCNewswire
Rob Schwartz retweeted
Nice write-up of a fun panel discussion this morning, moderated by @FormerCFTCGC. Thanks @DealFlowPREDICT for having me.
Predict 2026: CFTC, states battle over regulatory authority cdcgaming.com/predict-2026-c… via @CDCNewswire
Rob Schwartz retweeted
For a few hours on Sunday night, prediction markets were pricing a second plague case in Russia as a coin flip.
But by Monday morning, most of that momentum was gone.
A lab worker at a Russian plague research institute died last week, reportedly days after breaking a test tube containing pneumonic plague.
Nearly 200 people are under medical observation while Russia calls it
"pneumonia of unknown etiology."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio weighed in, saying: "I don't think it's cause for alarm, but it is cause for focus and a cause just to keep an eye on it."
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket seem to agree.
@betint_ai is tracking 12 NEW prediction markets involving this potential outbreak alongside spikes in markets that price when and if there will be another pandemic.
open.substack.com/pub/betbre…
