Retired Navy Chief & engineer with a heart for caregiving. I share easy-to-grasp, valuable advice from a rich life of overcoming hurdles.
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Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
This is CENTCOM inviting Iran to escalate while the Vice President is attempting to negotiate with the Iranians. This is, as CENTCOM calls it, “policy by CONOP,” when the military finds a way to subvert the White House without blatantly disobeying the President, by taking actions that will ensure a war escalates or perpetuates.
This tactic was implemented over & over again in the War on Terror in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, etc. Many Americans died, needlessly.
The Iranians have made it clear that they won’t accept negotiations while under threat of escalation. Iranian leadership has stated there will either be war or there will be peace, but they will not sit idly by and wait for the next attack & they won’t tolerate being slowly strangled by sanctions.
Imposing more sanctions, & publicly broadcasting that we’re imposing more sanctions, is brash provocation.
The midterm results sent a message that the President should find impossible to ignore: the American people do not support this war. We want out. The VP is currently in negotiations to end it, & a new Chief of Staff was chosen under the auspices of helping the President do just that.
CENTCOM announcing this escalation is the military working directly against what President Trump is attempting to accomplish. If the President had any desire to escalate, he’d simply do it. Instead, thankfully it appears he is attempting more diplomacy, and CENTCOM must support that.
It’s become abundantly clear that the President needs to install a new national security team, one that’s not tied to starting the war and that can instead end it. To do that, he needs people who can & will get the national security state under control, not submit to it.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
اظهرت صور الأقمار الصناعية استهداف احد مراكز القيادة العسكرية بمنطقة الشـّعبين على وادي حيرور شمالي مدينة نجران جنوب السعودية
الإحداثيات:
17°35'45.94"N 44°17'44.83"E
#علي_النسي
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
The People’s Bank of China increased its #gold reserves by 26 tonnes in October. This lifts YTD additions to 129 tonnes, meaning gold holdings now total 2,435 tonnes. This is now 2 tonnes behind France’s gold reserves.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
Stephen Miller was just announced as Chief of Staff. Did you know that Mark Levine's wife...the same wife who's son is a top aide to Mike Huckabee, who was/is accused of suppressing and altering reports critical of Israel from the Embassy to our Gov. Anyway...that wife. Well, she's General Counsel at Stephen Miller's dark money "non profit" America First Legal? She also sits on Virginia's Israel Advisory Board that negotiates contracts with Israeli's Ministry of Defense?? Nothing to see here folks...
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
Unemployment rate in October:
Foreign-born 3.2%.
Native-born 4.1%.
YEAH.... I was shocked too.
Same jobs report that just got sold as the remarkable +165,000 U-3 at 4.1%.
Foreign-born employment: 32.062 million.
Native-born: 132.121 million.
BLS Table A-7, household survey. Not seasonally adjusted. Foreign-born means not a U.S. citizen at birth... including naturalized citizens. This is not the payroll number.
I spent this morning tearing into the part-time and temp story in that same report. Dig one layer deeper and the nativity split is staring you in the face.
This is what I've been tracking for years. The headline number doesn't show who's getting the work. Not to mention WHAT is TRULY happening behind the scenes at companies. It tells me exactly what the shock factors are coming down the line in the coming quarters.
Then there's the part-time story I was in this morning.
7.1 million unemployed.
Another 4.8 million working part-time who want full-time work, up 339,000 in one month.
U-6 went from 7.6% to 7.9% while U-3 went down.
Make it make sense.
That's nearly 12 million people out of work or short on hours. And yet foreign born is at 32M???
It's a mess. This is why I don't trust the headlines. It's being sold as good. Any way you spin it, it isn't.
The figures:
165,000 jobs added. Unemployment down to 4.1%. Sounds like a great jobs report, provided you stop reading after the first paragraph.
Let's break down the story being told about these numbers.
356,000 more Americans are working part-time because business slowed and their employers don't have enough hours for them. They want full-time work. It's the biggest one-month jump in that category all year.
The number of people who "could only find part-time work" barely moved. Nearly the entire increase came from people whose hours were cut because business was slow.
Rank-and-file private-sector workers are averaging 33.8 hours a week. A raise looks awfully nice on paper until the hours disappear.
Now look at the hiring.
Temp agencies added 18,600 jobs. That's more than a quarter of the 70,000 jobs added in professional and business services, the sector that led the report.
How convenient. Hire people without making much of a long-term commitment. Keep the flexibility to send them packing when business gets uncomfortable.
The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, even as the headline rate fell. That broader measure includes people who want full-time work but can't get it, along with people on the margins of the labor force.
Employers are adding temporary workers while more Americans are stuck with part-time hours. That's a rather telling combination if you ask me.
Companies aren't stupid. They're keeping their options open.
165,000 jobs added… a beautiful number for the headlines.
Not quite as beautiful when you look at what's actually landing in people's paychecks.
Celebrate if you like. This number gets revised twice more. July was first reported as a gain of 21,000. It's now a loss.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
Iran's Supreme National Security Council Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri said Friday that Tehran would no longer rely on written US commitments and needed to see concrete actions from Washington before entering a new phase of diplomacy, state-run IRNA reported.
“Iran needs to see the US’s practical actions, and [then] the groundwork for opening a new chapter would be prepared,” Bagheri said.
He accused the United States of repeatedly violating its commitments over the past 18 months, saying Iran had the right to demand practical steps before pursuing renewed diplomatic engagement.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
CONFIRMED: Iranian air defenses shot down a USAF MQ-9 drone in the vicinity of Qeshm Island, southern Iran, tonight.
I highly doubt this significantly alters the optics of the Trump administration yielding to the establishment.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
Several explosions were heard in the Strait of Hormuz, following anti-ship missile launches from Qeshm Island, southern Iran.
Heavy fighter jet activity is also being reported in the area, Iranian air defenses are currently active.
The issue is an accumulation of what has transpired since 2020. The Fed filled the war chest, and the government went to war. Sanctions and wars have flipped supply chains and energy resources on its head, leading to 30% cumulative inflation since.
Interesting debate on tariffs vs war cause of the GOP disaster. IMHO, there was a huge degree of cowardice by many conservatives in opposing the tariffs out of the gate, which is why you see all this idiotic Israel-Iran finger pointing. So here's my take: There's never ONLY one reason why anything happens in markets, politics or life for that matter. Recent elevated deisel and gas prices didnt help the GOP cause. BUT the evidence is clear: Trump & Vance--right out of the box--placed a regressive consumption tax on goods and services aka tariffs. They hit working class people hardest but the impact was universal. They were so insane at first that the markets--which are not comprised of a bunch of lefty stock traders--collapsed in a way I havent seen since the the 2008 crisis (bonds imploded at one point as well meaning people weren't buying our debt). The markets recovered as the admin backed off the most onerous of the levies and AI drove valuations and economic growth. BUT Trump kept tariffs to some degree (in some cases a large degree) on everything and it hurt small businesses and consumers (I know this through plenty of reporting). We never got the manufacturing renaissance @howardlutnick predicted. Yes, AI is in correction mode, so that spending is winding down. But border states that went blue (Texas and Michigan) were hit hard by tariffs as were GOP stalwarts, farm states like Kansas and Iowa. One major reason Trump was elected in 2024 was elevated prices from the Biden inflationary spiral. He then elevated them more on working class people, who btw aren't thinking of control of the house and senate and esoteric political debates, but putting food on the table. So blame Israel and Iran all you want (elevated petro prices didnt begin Day 1 of the Trump admin), the main reason is staring the conservative movement in the face. Again, there was a huge degree of cowardice by many conservatives in NOT opposing the tariffs out of the gate. You're paying the price for that as well
Great for who? The jobs report indicates more people needing part time work due to a lack of full time work, lifting the broader U-6 underemployment rate to 7.9%.
It was a great October jobs report, but that doesn't erase this painful fact: Inflation has wiped out all wage gains for 7 straight months.
Average wage gains in past year: 3.1%
Inflation: ~3.5% (we'll get the latest data Tuesday)
In fact, the inflation resurgence has been so strong that it's basically wiped out all wage gains since January 2025.
That was the key voting issue in the mid-term elections.
#economy #jobs #inflation
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
165,000 jobs added. Unemployment down to 4.1%. Sounds like a great jobs report, provided you stop reading after the first paragraph.
Let's break down the story being told about these numbers.
356,000 more Americans are working part-time because business slowed and their employers don't have enough hours for them. They want full-time work. It's the biggest one-month jump in that category all year.
The number of people who "could only find part-time work" barely moved. Nearly the entire increase came from people whose hours were cut because business was slow.
Rank-and-file private-sector workers are averaging 33.8 hours a week. A raise looks awfully nice on paper until the hours disappear.
Now look at the hiring.
Temp agencies added 18,600 jobs. That's more than a quarter of the 70,000 jobs added in professional and business services, the sector that led the report.
How convenient. Hire people without making much of a long-term commitment. Keep the flexibility to send them packing when business gets uncomfortable.
The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, even as the headline rate fell. That broader measure includes people who want full-time work but can't get it, along with people on the margins of the labor force.
Employers are adding temporary workers while more Americans are stuck with part-time hours. That's a rather telling combination if you ask me.
Companies aren't stupid. They're keeping their options open.
165,000 jobs added… a beautiful number for the headlines.
Not quite as beautiful when you look at what's actually landing in people's paychecks.
Celebrate if you like. This number gets revised twice more. July was first reported as a gain of 21,000. It's now a loss.
Iran is not Iraq, and will not allow the US two months to build an invading force. What evidence suggests the contrary?
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
3% to 30%…the cost of war risk #OOTT
Normally, the combined cost of freight and insurance represents around 3% of the total cost of crude or petroleum products.
By the end of January 2026, the total share of freight and insurance for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from the Middle East to East Asia was around 5% of the total cost.
By the end of October 2026, however, this share averaged 30% of the total cost.
These exceptionally elevated costs are, in turn, transmitted across the entire value chain. They increase and prolong the cost burden on producing and consuming countries and place additional inflationary pressures on the global economy.
Read more in the new brochure ➡️ opec.org/assets/assetdb/who-…
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
Iran’s top security deputy chief, Ali Bagheri, Iran will no longer accept written promises from the US and demands concrete US actions before entering a new phase of diplomacy.
He says the US has broken its commitments and derailed all 4 rounds of negotiations over the past 18 months.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
Ships seeking passage through the Red Sea are reportedly now required to email the Houthis for clearance.
Howard Aulsbrook retweeted
New York Times reports about one of the Saudi war crimes carried out in Yemen, the bombing of the Al-Qahm family, claiming the lives of nine members, including five children under the age of 10, using a US-supplied Mk-82 bomb with a Paveway II guidance kit. 🔗 Link below
Photo 1: Children being pulled from the rubble of a destroyed home in Saada, Yemen, following a targeted Saudi Air Force strike.
Photo 2: Remains of a Paveway bomb guidance kit for a US-supplied MK 82 500-pound bomb.
9 lives claimed and 16 injured according to Al Masirah, including children, with search efforts continuing under the rubble.
This confirms the shift toward hemispheric hegemony: China dominates the East, the US the West, and Europe remains caught in between.
The United States will not tolerate subversive communist networks in our hemisphere.
The Marxist Cuban regime relies on a web of state-owned enterprises, joint ventures, and offshore intermediaries to keep its systems running, and its foreign backers supply the military equipment that helps sustain the regime’s military forces and enables persistent threats to the American homeland.
Today, I'm sanctioning eight entities and two individuals associated with the regime’s financial and shipping network, state-owned import and technical-support entities, and China-based suppliers of the regime's military forces.
state.gov/releases/office-of…
