husband, father, grandfather, farmer, former president of Missouri Farm Bureau

Joined June 2012
Blake Hurst retweeted
Kevin Williamson - on Texas, from Texas. The best reported article I've read this cycle. Classic KW writing -- is there anyone better? -- and deep insights throughout. As enjoyable as a second helping of dessert and as nourishing as your veggies. thedispatch.com/newsletter/w…
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Mr. Trump, you are on the right path, but I don't think you have taken it far enough. If the nation loses $40 billion when we buy products from Canada, isn't it equally true that New York loses money when it buys products from Ohio? And isn't it true that I lose money when I buy products from my grocery store? There is so much more trade you could be stopping, thus making every household tens of thousands of dollars!
Trump: "We don't need their product. So if we cut off trade with that country, we just made $40 billion. You do a few countries like that, and we become a big money machine." 🙃
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If people like myself and Scott, and a variety of free market conservatives who maintain affection for the classical economic principles we were raised on got together a couple of years ago to “worst case scenario” what could happen in the administration, we would not have come up with this. But here we are.
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Blake Hurst retweeted
A self-inflicted wound: Americans now pay 75% more for aluminum than the rest of the world, and 64% more for steel. The price of protectionism is to drive up the cost of living for ordinary citizens and to destroy businesses’ ability to compete. wsj.com/opinion/u-s-canada-s…
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Blake Hurst retweeted
Druck nails it here. Its @EpsilonTheory’s common knowledge game, the standard dismissive public line is always “the debt has been an “issue” for 40 years” while privately they guilt-read @LukeGromen but theres nothing like sustained 6% deficits to force a shared, public reality.
Replying to @pineconemacro
Druck really made me feel sane today - some highlights from his WSJ Opinion piece: The market’s verdict was swift and correct: This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management—and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests. There were no failed auctions, no dealer balance-sheet seizure, no forced unwinds, nothing resembling Treasurys in March 2020 or U.K. gilts in September 2022, the sort of genuine dysfunctional episodes that justify official action. Volatility was contained, and trading was orderly—not a malfunction but the machine doing its job. I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left. Democracies don’t repair their finances because a budget office publishes a table. They repair them only when the cost of inaction becomes visible and immediate, when mortgage rates bite, when auctions tail, when the political price of a rising long bond finally exceeds the political price of touching spending. Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination. Suppressed long rates sugarcoat the interest-cost projections, shrink the apparent urgency, and let incumbents assure voters the debt is someone else’s problem...Whatever this operation saves in basis points, it will cost multiples in delay. Yield management always begins as a technical operation and ends as a policy commitment. From 1942 to 1951, the Federal Reserve capped long Treasury yields to finance World War II. The cap outlived the war, financed deficits with printed money, and fueled double-digit inflation. It took the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to dismantle the cap, followed by years of financial repression that quietly taxed a generation of savers. U.S. policymakers built the wall between debt management and price management for a reason. This intervention starts dissolving it. Within a day of the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the operations could grow beyond $4 billion, and analysts observed that Treasury can double them again and again. When the bond market didn’t respond to this threat, senior Treasury officials told reporters that the department could use the Treasury General Account to intervene. Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the tests. These enlarged operations happen to run through the final stretch of a midterm campaign. Debt management that even appears to follow the political calendar spends the one asset that took two centuries to accumulate: the credibility of the Treasury market. That asset doesn’t regain its value so easily. Routine operations aren’t announced off-cycle, at double size, on the heels of the long bond’s hitting a two-decade high, with a signal that they can grow without limit. Judge an intervention by what it responds to. This one responded to a price, not to plumbing, which is exactly how the market read it, and why the effect evaporated within a day. You can’t buy your way out of a solvency conversation with liquidity tools. You can only postpone the conversation and raise the eventual price. If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit. Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose. The only variable is how much they spend before conceding. The U.S. shouldn’t put itself on the wrong side of that trade, not with the most important price in the world, and not when that price is trying to say the one thing Washington most needs to hear: Let the bond market speak. wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…
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If you’d like to build a data center, my farm is available. Who could be opposed to bringing business, jobs, and tax revenue to rural northwest Missouri? asks Blake Hurst on.wsj.com/4hAHTiC
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Blake Hurst retweeted
Imagine Congress attempting to change the U.S. constitution and only receiving votes in California, Illinois, NY to successfully amend our sacred document. Sound ridiculous? Unfortunately that’s the situation Missouri is dealing with regarding our initiative petition process for constitutional amendments. Vote Yes on 4 to change this
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And there it is (via REGIME CHANGE, ofc): the godfather of the Liberation Day tariff formula is none other than... Peter Navarro. And everyone else - including Lutnick, Bessent, and Trump - thought it was "f*cking stupid" (Shocking, I know.)
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Bessent is wrong. Reagan had it right:
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Their Coffee Is More Toxic Than Glyphosate Last week Del Bigtree (@delbigtree) and Food Babe (@foodbabe) rallied outside the Supreme Court against glyphosate. I've met these people. I exposed them in my films. They are not honest brokers. And they weren't alone. Cory Booker (@corybooker) and AOC (@aoc) are taking the bait on Glyphosate as evil— politicians I respect on a lot of issues. But not on this one. The science doesn't care about your team. The global scientific consensus is clear: the EPA, EU, Canada, Japan, and Australia have all concluded glyphosate does not cause cancer at real-world exposures. Oh — and their coffee is more toxic than glyphosate. Scientifically speaking. More receipts coming. Including a deep dive into IARC — the organization behind the "probable carcinogen" claim — and why they'll be front and center in my next project: TOXIC Stay tuned. @marklynas @bayer #Glyphosate #Roundup #FoodEvolution #ShotInTheArm #MAHA #PeopleVersusPoisin #FoodScience #ScienceMatters #Monsanto #IARC #SupremeCourt
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Blake Hurst retweeted
It's almost as if @JDvance doesn't fully understand trade deficits...
Now here's a fun one. Per today's release from the US Census Bureau, the inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit set a new record in 2025:
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Blake Hurst retweeted
🚨 Key Highlights from Jobs Report:   ✅Federal bureaucracy slashed by 324k under the Trump Admin ✅130k job gains in January   ❌However, 124k were in Health care and social assistance – which are heavily subsidized by the government   ❌Only 5% of job growth last year came after Liberation Day tariffs 🤯
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Blake Hurst retweeted
As predicted...
New Fed research shows tariffs may be quietly costing the U.S. thousands of jobs every month — with slower hiring and a weaker labor market to show for it. Taxes on trade are still taxes…and at the end of the day that impacts the economy. Businesses are trying to hold back on raising prices. But the tax has to be paid from somewhere.
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Oren Cass is going to testify to Congress that the US must "prohibit all sales of advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China." I hope we all see the irony. Cass has built his name as the conservative arguing that trade dependency is bad because it prevents countries from developing domestic capabilities. American workers lost manufacturing jobs, he says, because we imported goods instead of making them ourselves. The solution? Restrict imports so America must build its own industrial base. Now he wants to stop China from importing. By his own logic, we'd be doing them a favor. Cass thinks total prohibition can work because of allied concentration in semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC makes 80-90% of sub-7nm chips by his telling. ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines. This is the lever. China is bad, and we have a lever, so pull it. But his policy—by his own general framework on trade—would break the lever. You're spurring China toward isolation and forcing them to produce their own chips. That's the Cass prescription for industrial revival, applied to our adversary. Huawei's Ascend chips exist because of export controls. SMIC is pushing DUV lithography toward 7nm because EUV is unavailable. Every restriction has triggered a domestic response. Total prohibition would trigger total mobilization. Meanwhile, the lever itself requires maintenance. As we point out in our chips paper, TSMC invests 40-60% of revenue in CapEx and R&D every year. laweconcenter.org/resources/… A cutting-edge fab costs $20 billion. Where does the money come from? Global revenue. Including from China! A bunch of ASML's DUV sales went there. As we show in the paper, semiconductor leadership is a treadmill. You have to keep running or you fall off. Intel held process leadership for decades, stumbled at 10nm, and TSMC leapfrogged ahead. Less revenue means less investment means slower progress means the lead erodes from our side while China accelerates from theirs. The current structure is why we're winning. Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD, Broadcom, Apple, countless AI startups. American firms dominate chip design. Allied firms dominate manufacturing and equipment. The US and its partners control the stack. I'm not a national security expert. But on the basic economics, Cass is once again over his skis spinning stories.
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🤣🤣
Turns out this was USDA collecting ears for lab analysis of the 2025 crop
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"With tariffs; we are a rich nation; without tariffs, we are a poor nation." Every nation with Trump-level tariffs is dirt-poor.
🤓Friends, I was up all night doing exhaustive research on all the experts cited in the Trump administration's "trade deficits are a threat" Supreme Court filing. Here you go: * President Trump * Secretary Lutnick *US Trade Representative Greer *Sec Rubio *Sec Bessent 1/x
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Blake Hurst retweeted
The horse and buggy industry would like a word.
Josh Hawley giving a speech about the need to rein in AI and other tech at NatCon5. “Only humans ought to drive cars and trucks,” he says.
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Trump's tariffs threaten to make the economic freedom rating for tariffs second worst in the world. More here: fraserinstitute.org/studies/…
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ISM: "U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years amid tariffs that have raised prices of imported raw materials." reuters.com/world/us/us-manu…
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And it’s one thing to absorb costs for a few weeks, something else to eat them indefinitely.
In a VERY preliminary analysis, Goldman estimates that foreign exporters - mostly Chinese - are thus far paying just 20% of the Trump tariffs' cost, with US consumers & US companies splitting the other 80%. More than 2018-19, but still not much.
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