Fuck it, not hedging. I was reading through trying to cast doubt and instead convinced myself that this Fight Worth Having / Redbox polling is real and worth paying attention to. A few reasons I’m inclined to believe this is real polling: 1. Real org with a face (Corbin Trent) 2. The sponsor has money ($700K COH) 3. Reasonable (if ambitious) methods 4. The PAC has worked with Braun in the past. They’re a very well-respected org, more than capable of executing this work. That said, A Fight Worth Having, as a political sponsor, may have only released the results that advance their cause. Most of the stuff I’ve seen folks complaining about w/r/t design effect is explained by the heavily oversample based sample design and apparent reliance on pure probability sampling without quotas (which can make sense for a full TTW sample). If I’m right that Braun fielded this, it wouldn’t shock me if they have AI-written methods statements based on internal project docs that get a human review.

Absolutely shocked to learn that the Republican nominee for senate in Mass groomed and raped a 15 year old when he was in his 20s.