Pushing the limits of Microsoft Excel.
Not Financial Advice
Joined January 2023
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LBO_Guy retweeted
Dylan Patel @dylan522p of SemiAnalysis considers power as a manageable constraint compared to memory, substrate, and optics:
"Power is definitely a big constraint, but one thing that our research sort of shows that I think is counterintuitive to much of the market is that next year there are data center constraints but a lot less than people realize because there are nearly 50GW data centers being built globally. 7-8GW in China, 35GW in the US, and a bunch everywhere else - Australia, India, Malaysia."
"All over the world data centers are being built at a tremendous pace."
"While power is a huge bottleneck, people can find creative ways around that, whether it be turbines on site, reciprocating engines on site, or fuel cells on site. All of these things are helping alleviate the power bottleneck."
"As far as what people most people think, oh data centers and power are the biggest constraint? I think they are constraints but I think they are a lot less than substrates, memory, lasers, and other things in the optics supply chain."
Via CASPA on YouTube
$META $GEV $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $NBIS $CRWV
LBO_Guy retweeted
CEO of Amazon, Andy Jassy, on the cost of inference:
"The cost of inference has come down quite a bit in the last few years, but it is still an order of magnitude too expensive, in my opinion, for it to be used as pervasively as possible. If you are asking enterprises to rewrite their applications that use CPU today with AI accelerators, if the difference in those costs are very significant. The amount of incremental benefit they have to get from their AI accelerators on there is a much higher bar to want to rewrite those apps."
"If you can take the cost of inference down, that bar is much lower and all applications are going to be better and smarter and more capable with AI accelerators and inference. That is a really important part for customers to being able to use AI pervasively."
Via @a16z
$AMZN
LBO_Guy retweeted
$AMZN CEO Andy Jassy says AWS capacity is largely sold out through 2027, with a significant portion of 2028 already committed,
"There's only so much data center and power today. There's only so much memory, and I don't think that shortage ends in 2027. I think that, you know, one of the reasons, coming back to the capital investment, why I think we could invest a lot more and it wouldn't be a bad use of capital is that, you know, 2026 is obviously at this point sold out. 2027 is largely sold out. We always leave a certain amount for on-demand and our inference service, Bedrock or EC2, but largely sold out, all the big chunks. A good chunk of 2028 is sold out. Like, there's so much demand."
LBO_Guy retweeted
Listening to the earnings call knowing that it will determine how attractive my future wife will be
LBO_Guy retweeted
Citi: Muse secured over 10 million users in about 6 weeks following its launch in the US and Canada, with approximately 25% of users using it daily—more than double the engagement rate seen at the launch of Threads.
$META
LBO_Guy retweeted
Quest Diagnostics has been hacked. Patient data was exposed. They serve roughly half of U.S. hospitals and physicians. Investigation ongoing.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Pretty easy to guess $META capex and equity raise, or at least have a ball-park estimate. Sell-side consensus though is sleep at the well.
FY26 guide at $135–145bn implies $49–59bn in Q4 or $200–240bn run-rate. Given how capex is scaling up quarter on quarter, it wouldn't be crazy to estimate 2027 could be in the $250–300bn range. My guess is it's more towards the $300bn figure. Consensus is at $205bn, LMAO. OCF this year is around $130–140bn (cons $133bn) and 2027 consensus number is at v$168bn.
That put's, the gap at $80–130bn, which as said by mgm, it's too big to plug with debt alone. Equity raise could thus be around those figures, which matches $GOOG and $SPCX equity raises.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Apparently there’s a patch for the critical PHP vulnerabilities but a few things that are alarming.
1) Many websites that use php with sensitive information are simply abandoned. There will be no upgrade. That means they’re going to get pwned and leaked. That’s a LOT of the internet
2) This requires active participants to upgrade their sites that even know about this vulnerability. If you’re on X you’re at the tip of the tip of the spear. Most people don’t know about this.
3) Anthropic says that this is ONE of SEVERAL critical vulnerabilities that they have found. Which means there’s more chaos coming.
TLDR: A large portion of the unmaintained internet is about to be pwned and god help us all or something like that.
OpenAI models helped researchers—operating as part of our Patch the Planet initiative—discover critical security flaws in PHP, an open-source programming language used to run an estimated 70% of websites.
Over the past two months, we led a coalition of maintainers, researchers, and security providers to prepare fixes and protections ahead of disclosure. This duration was necessary because the fix was quite intricate and required a major change to the PHP engine. Every site using PHP can now safely upgrade their version to stay secure, in addition to applying mitigations from various security vendors.
Due to the severity of these flaws and PHP’s widespread use, we consider this bug to be one of the most impactful vulnerabilities in recent memory. It also marks a new phase, where AI can find security bugs with internet-scale impact.
This is an example of the Defender’s Window in action: to our knowledge, frontier AI was able to find this vulnerability ahead of attackers, giving defenders time to prepare.
openai.com/index/coordinated…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
OpenAI may claim a role in the coordinated response and patching process. But the initial discovery and exploit development, however, occurred several months earlier by an independent researcher.
x.com/lcfr_hax/statu…
LBO_Guy retweeted
How is this acceptable or legal? Retaliation for political speech should be prohibited by law. – at San Francisco, CA
LBO_Guy retweeted
As a frenchman, you cannot imagine my anger towards the political class that has led us to this situation.
OAT reaching 5% and OAT/Bund reaching 160bp!!!
Tell you what? NOBODY in France has realized what it means.
Wake-up call will be terrible...
LBO_Guy retweeted
The best part about this new pod is you understand what went on for Elon to put this tweet. It was something like this:
Elon: Jensen, memory prices are insane. We’re buying everything you ship. Can we get more allocation, or a lower price? Preferably both.
Jensen:
"Remember, uh, Moore’s law is over. There was a time if you want to get twice as many transistors, you just wait one year. And if you want twice as many transistors again, you just wait one year and get them at the same price.
But if you want twice as many transistors now, doesn’t matter how long you wait, you have to pay twice as much. Okay? Because Moore’s law is over."
LBO_Guy retweeted
¡Hola, Region of Madrid! 🇪🇸 We’re thrilled to announce that we’re coming to Spain, beginning with Madrid. This will be our first region in Spain and second in the European Union. We plan to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing in Madrid in 2027.
Sign up for future updates: waymo.com/waymo-in-spain
¡Hola, Comunidad de Madrid! 🇪🇸 Nos emociona anunciar que llegamos a España, empezando por Madrid. Esta será nuestra primera región en España y la segunda en la Unión Europea. Planeamos lanzar nuestro servicio de ride-hailing totalmente autónomo en la Comunidad en 2027.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Why you shouldn’t buy smartphones from Chinese brands: They’re now recycling old DRAM chips that have already been used in smartphones for five to six years, putting them into new phones, and selling them.
biz.chosun.com/it-science/ic…
LBO_Guy retweeted
Back when being fat was illegal and being on coke was mandatory for Victoria's Secret models
So much better than what's become of it.
LBO_Guy retweeted
ALERT🚨: NVIDIA has been working overtime, nights, and weekends after being shocked 🤯 by last week’s TPUv7 FP8 submission showing better performance per dollar.
Unfortunately for NVIDIA, its first GB300 FP4 counter-submission is still 1.64x worse in performance per dollar than TPUv7 for external customers across most of the end-to-end performance curve.
The x-axis of the graph below uses end-to-end latency, so a higher curve is better. The TPUv7 curve has higher perf per $ across most of the E2EL Pareto frontier.
This initial submission looks like NVIDIA’s first attempt to close the gap, but the gap is still massive. We expect more counter-submissions from NVIDIA as they continue trying to narrow the difference.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Russian Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE-X36 (providing Ukraine military support) are now in perfect sync with each other. The Russian military satellite is intentionally stalking and tracking the Western radar satellite. Keeping a satellite "bumper-to-bumper" in this manner allows Russia to intercept or jam data transmissions, physically inspect Western technology, or quickly pivot to execute a kinetic or non-kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) attack with very little warning or fuel expenditure.
Kosmos 2612 executed a series of highly precise, fuel-heavy maneuvers to force itself into a "coplanar" orbit—matching ICEYE-X36's exact altitude (~555 km), speed, and inclination (~97.8°). The ICEYE-X36 satellite is giving the Ukraine military support.