How can we make smart decisions about the future if the future is unknowable? @wimsam.bsky.social
Sydney, AU
Joined March 2010
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Wimal Samara retweeted
YOU’D RATHER BE US
The cost of money has soared around the world through 2026, turning the screws on plenty of borrowers
That has put the blowtorch to the belly of the likes of France, and also caused plenty of chatter here in Australia too – including in the wake of a new report out from the IMF
So it’s worth a reminder that the Lucky Country remains luckier than most realise
The chart shows what we owe the world less what they owe us
That’s actually not much more than a third of what it was a decade ago, back down to rates last seen in the mid-1980s
Add in the fact that most of our borrowing is in $A, and that’s a reminder that – as a nation – Australia is less exposed to pain than most others
No, that doesn’t stop Bathla-like events, but it does suggest much lower systemic risk
The sharp fall in our liabilities has been driven by both good and bad reasons
The good stuff includes the growing investment by super funds in the rest of the world, as well as the higher prices the world gave us for our red and black rocks over the past decade
The bad stuff includes the lack of investment in Australia. As we’ve become a less attractive place to invest, both the world’s money and our own has headed elsewhere …
Wimal Samara retweeted
Gotta love the talking heads on FinTV claiming the current market is different from 1999-2000 because unlike then, there is real earnings growth now. (S&P Operating EPS were up 30% from mid-1998 to mid-2000 because, you know, the Internet buildout!)
Wimal Samara retweeted
Early on there was more unknown about how much would be offline vs rerouted. Then there were a series of incorrect pronouncements and failed negotiations. The market (over)reacted to that in both directions. It's now settled down with clearer info and fair market value ticks up each day that the Strait is closed. I think that is so straightforward that I almost didnt post the original tweet. It is different from saying the market will go up each day. There's a lot of noise around security prices. Stock prices move every day even though most days there is no new info that changes anyone's valuation. That happens in commodities too.
Wimal Samara retweeted
$DSPX - $VIX just went from negative to positive.
This means index-level implied vol (VIX) was higher than average single-stock implied vol (DSPX).
This cycle, that's been a great precursor to durable mid-term lows... Timing the sentiment resets perfectly...
Price must confirm, as always.
note: the DSPX launched in late 2023, all data prior was reconstructed after the fact.
Wimal Samara retweeted
This is Rome's most famous crime scene
Today, March 15, marks the day sixty men stabbed the most powerful person on earth and accidentally destroyed the very thing they were trying to save. The lesson he died for is one the world still hasn't learned...
In 44 BC, Julius Caesar was proclaimed dictator for life. He had ended a civil war, conquered Gaul, and remade Rome in his image. The poor loved him. The soldiers would die for him. But 60 senators called themselves the Liberators and plotted to kill him.
At their center stood Marcus Junius Brutus, descended from the very man who had founded the Republic. Yet it was Caesar’s mercy that helped restore Brutus’s political career. Caesar had spared his life after the civil war and allowed him to return to public office...
Brutus took the blade he sharpened on Caesar's generosity and drove it into his chest.
But before the blood, there was a warning.
According to Plutarch, a seer had told Caesar his life would be in danger on the Ides of March. On his way to the Senate that morning, Caesar spotted the man and said to him that the Ides had arrived. The seer's reply was: "Aye, they are come, but they are not gone."
Caesar was stabbed twenty-three times. He fell at the base of a statue of Pompey the Great — his oldest rival. When he saw Brutus among the assassins, he stopped fighting and sank to the ground...
Brutus had prepared a speech celebrating the restoration of the Republic. He was shocked to find outrage instead of praise. Caesar's death triggered civil wars. His heir Octavian crushed the conspirators at Philippi — Brutus and Cassius both died by their own swords — then became Emperor Augustus, terminating the Republic forever.
The Liberators had liberated no one.
They had a plan for the assassination and none for the morning after — certain of their own righteousness, blind to everything else. Every revolution led by people drunk on their own virtue ends the same way: not in the freedom they promised, but in the chaos they swore to prevent.
Power does not fall into a vacuum. It falls to whoever is most prepared to catch it. The men who killed Caesar set out to stop a dictator. They created an emperor instead. That is the oldest political truth there is, and the one we keep forgetting: removing a man changes nothing if you haven't changed the conditions that made him necessary in the first place.
Wimal Samara retweeted
139% Above Its Mean. Every Prior Peak Collapsed."
This is the Q Ratio — the broadest measure of US stock market valuation vs. the replacement cost of assets.
Right now? 139% above its long-run average.
We just touched 147% — above the 3 Standard Deviation line.
Here's what history shows every single time this chart got extreme:
1929 peak → -64%
1937 peak → -64%
1968 peak → -65%
2000 dot-com peak → bottomed at -18% (cushioned by Fed intervention)
Mean reversion isn't a theory. It's the most reliable pattern in 120 years of market data.
The arithmetic mean is 0.84.
We are not at 0.84.
Markets don't stay at 3 standard deviations.
They never have. The only question is timing!
Source: VettaFi / Advisor Perspectives — February 2026
Wimal Samara retweeted
This is why investing is such a brutal game
Go back 5 years to 2021. The world is shut down and everything is happening online
You could have been right about e-commerce. You could have been right about the cloud
And if you picked the company that is leading both of those categories, you got absolutely smoked by Walmart
Wimal Samara retweeted
Not what I said
I said that criticism of Islam should be called Islamoscepticism
Phobia implies irrational over-reaction, as with spiders
Scepticism is an impeccable intellectual position - the basis of science
Which is why many muslims like the word Islamophobia, since by definition it settles the
argument before it has started
John Cleese saying Islamophobia doesn't exist was a welcome update today
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Cleese has stated this is not what he said -
x.com/JohnCleese/sta…
Wimal Samara retweeted
The discovery of the Taizhou Mummy, dating back to the Ming Dynasty, was unexpectedly unearthed due to its extraordinary state of preservation. This serendipitous find has fascinated researchers and historians alike, offering a rare glimpse into the past with its remarkably well-preserved condition.
The Taizhou Mummy's accidental discovery underscores the unpredictability of archaeological excavations, where valuable historical artifacts and remains can surface unexpectedly. In this case, the mummy's remarkable state of preservation provides a unique opportunity for researchers to study ancient burial practices, physical characteristics, and perhaps gain insights into the cultural and societal aspects of the Ming Dynasty.
Such discoveries are pivotal in expanding our understanding of history beyond written records, offering tangible connections to the past that enrich our knowledge of civilizations long gone. The careful study of the Taizhou Mummy promises to reveal not only the individual's identity and social status but also sheds light on broader aspects of Ming Dynasty life, such as beliefs about the afterlife, burial rituals, and perhaps even medical practices of the time.
In conclusion, the accidental unearthing of the Taizhou Mummy stands as a testament to the surprises hidden beneath the earth's surface, providing a window into history that invites further exploration and deeper understanding of our shared human heritage.
#archaeohistories
Wimal Samara retweeted
Auschwitz was at the end of a long process. We must remember that it did not start from gas chambers.
This hatred was gradually developed by humans. From ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.
Auschwitz took time.
ALT A bird's-eye view of a former Auschwitz II-Birkenau camp showing a wide dirt pathway flanked by parallel rows of barbed-wire fences. Groups of visitors walk along the path, surrounded by the remnants of brick structures and barracks, now reduced to foundations. Green grass contrasts with the somber history of the site, as the path leads toward a guard tower in the distance.
Wimal Samara retweeted
🚀 Asked Claude to go from research ➜ Python code ➜ backtest for a rotational momentum system.
Returned with rules
• Rank S&P 500 by 240-day momentum
• Go long top 10 only when >50 % of stocks are in up-trends (breadth filter)
• 10 % weight each, rebalance monthly
• Flat when short-term momentum ≤ 0
2000-2025 results (survivor-bias-free, delists in):
📈 +453 % vs +299 % $SPX
📉 Max DD -27 % vs -57 %
I just nudged the spec; Claude wrote every line.
AI isn’t taking systematic trader’s jobs—it’s strapping rockets to them. 🔥👇
#AI #Momentum #SystematicTrading
Wimal Samara retweeted
one of my timing models i developed over the years...when the tick range narrows, Short side bias, when it widens out (green), Buy signal.
Wimal Samara retweeted
"The human tendency to seek patterns in random chaos, to link and connect, even has a name for it: #apophenia. Unfortunately, it can lead many - even otherwise intelligent - people down the rabbit hole of conspiracy thinking - seeking connections where none exist"
Wimal Samara retweeted
May 10, 1933. Berlin's Opera Square
Tens of thousands burn books as Josef Goebbels praises their efforts to cleanse German culture of Jewish & other un-German ideas
Restricting books was first
Welcome to das Reichsministerium für Volksaufklärung & Propaganda, @MarkGoldfeder
