Pollster and founder @UpswingRS | Pittsburgh native | 🏳️🌈
Washington, DC
Joined January 2011
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Ethan Smith retweeted
Will Lawrence didn't just win the election. He won the most contested House seat in America in 2026.
#MI07 was the defining battle for flipping the House majority. And Will Lawrence won it by leading on a bold, populist platform.
Data via @Ad_Impact
Will Lawrence beat out better-funded opponents in the race to represent Michigan’s 7th District. Now, the representative-elect is laying out his plans to fight for a federal data center moratorium. buff.ly/OVBN0jX
Ethan Smith retweeted
Elon Musk spent hundreds of thousands to defeat me. But he couldn’t buy this election.
We are putting a stop to decades of elite impunity and building a movement that will fight for working people.
Ethan Smith retweeted
Will Lawrence in NYT saying it's time for Democrats to finally stand up to Big Tech.
Ethan Smith retweeted
Guardrails proudly went 5-0 against the AI oligarchs on Tuesday.
One race that got less attention: the $1M we spent against Leading the Future-endorsed Democrat Jimmy Gomez.
Here’s why we got involved, and what it means for Democrats going forward.
🧵
Ethan Smith retweeted
Guardrails went 5-0 this election. Leading the Future lost South Carolina for Republicans.
NEW: Where AI money worked in the midterms semafor.com/article/11/05/20…
Ethan Smith retweeted
Jake Johnson's victory in MN-01 is especially impressive given that he wasn't helped by the rest of the ticket, including even Klobuchar-
Gov:
Demuth (R) 50.5%
Klobuchar (D) 47.5%
Sen:
Tafoya (R) 51.0%
Flanagan (D) 45.9%
House:
Johnson (D) 50.0%
Finstad (R) 49.9%
Ethan Smith retweeted
The ad that started the campaign -- and built trust with voters so that Will Lawrence could sustain the largest GOP Super PAC spend of any House candidate.
AD DROP: "Michigan First"
Not tech CEOs
Not Wall Street
And definitely NOT hyperscale data centers
I'm running for Congress in #MI07 to stand with my neighbors. To protect our families, homes, and futures from corporations and culture wars. We Will Win — together.
Ethan Smith retweeted
I'm honored to serve you as our next congressman from southern Minnesota. Let's get to work.
Ethan Smith retweeted
What if I told you i've been obessed with winning this seat for a year ⤵️⤵️⤵️⤵️
WE'RE NOT DONE. Currently watching MN-01, where we just got a drop of votes from where @JakeJohnsonMN taught high school math for 16 years. That just gave him a 0.1% lead over a republican who won this seat by 17 points.
Ethan Smith retweeted
“You've broken the speed of the sound of loneliness
You're out there runnin'
Just to be on the run” RIP Nanci Griffith.
Ethan Smith retweeted
RIP Nanci Griffith (and John Prine) youtube.com/watch?v=i7Gv7UNX…
"They haven't moved in a few years so its impossible for them to move now" is incredibly uncompelling. OTOH, there's a lot of evidence that this cycle will be different from recent midterms.
This is lowkey a polling red flag. This has been one of the more inelastic groups in recent cycles. The groups we expect to see the most movement are nonwhites, not WNC.
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I had someone in groups in Arizona say “I voted for Trump three times; he’s a grifter” and in Michigan someone said “I voted for Trump twice but idk the hell why.” It’s so different from 2018.
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I’ve been hearing this from Trump voters for at least a year. You should talk to your base voters every cycle but especially in wave years.
CNN: GOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters.
Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to “corrupt politicians” and “billionaires” — a response that surprised some longtime strategists who’ve never seen government corruption emerge as a top issue for so many Republican voters in congressional races.
cnn.com/2026/10/18/politics/…
