justbooket

This is what "THEY" might not be telling you: 📣 Snow forecast are like the rest of the internet: You keep looking and you will find something you like to fit what you want to see. I will always encourage getting information from multiple sources. I do not have all the answers, nor am I 100% right. Nobody is. Get 4 different meteorologists in a room and end up with 5 different forecasts. 🙏 Please KNOW YOUR SOURCE of information AND THEIR SOURCE as well. WHAT MODEL are they showing you? I ALWAYS label my maps with the model product for that reason. 1) Any snow total forecast is within 72 hours of the event. One week away is purely entertainment and possibly a joke. The rare times I show snow total maps this far away are special occasions and not for forecasting accuracy. 🖥️ 🤡 I am using the GFS Model here AGAINST my better judgment to illustrate my point. But know this: I DO NOT LIKE IT! 2) This model is NOT reliable! Consider any mention of it , especially almost one week ahead of a storm, has a low skill rating. Can it be right? Sometimes But very rarely in my humble opinion. ‼️ This model will OFTEN FLUCTUATE OFTEN From one run to the next! But many models do... especially one week ahead of a potential storm or 'event'. 3) This model updates every 6 hours. at 12Z Sat (the morning run) it had 6" snow for Baltimore. TOO HIGH and I said that earlier. At 18Z(the afternoon run) it was near Zero! 4)🎲 The odds of getting 1" has significantly dropped. 5) 👥👥 👥 Here are 30 Members Of The Ensemble. There are multiple versions run with slightly different weights or variations. The odds are based of the results of all of these different runs. 6) 💻 The Operational Model seen here is the US Staple but consistency falls short to the ECMWF and other products. I rarely mention it, but when I do it is in reference to comparing multiple models. 7) 🔄Over the last two months I have emphasized the 4 to 5 day BLIP. I've seen this on the European ECWMF when a storm shows up a week ahead of time. Then in the 4 to 5 day period it wanes or misses. Then it comes back as the sort range mathematics gets applied. It happened with multiple events and is something I've seen for years across many models. 8) 🤔 I would not be surprised if more models seems to diminish this storm over the next two days, then bring it back up a little within the 48 to 72 hour forecast period. 9) I do think there will be a possible Nor'easter as the cold air arrives Thursday to Friday. But calling a storm that has not formed yet to track any path, proximity, or potency is really grating at straws this far away. 10) I do think there will be snow in the mountains. Enough for some accumulation. I also think there may be some 'wet flakes' that may mix in farther east.. into the colder suburbs. But city areas? That is stretch, but still possible. Perhaps even with instability showers a day after this storm moves away. ✅ The next few days will be mold AND it will seem like this has all been a joke. It will be the buzz online to stir up excitement and maybe rumors. I am here to share what I know and what I believe. I have no intension of click bait because that will diminish your trust in me and what I do. I hope this list above helps you sort through the noise, know what I expect may transpire, and how I operate. I'll see you in the morning for my regular report. The short term focus is about the wind and my son dealing with it in his golf tournament. At least I am honest about my bias. See ya! - JB