klos

That’s why the 60/40 portfolio is such BS. The same thing happened during COVID, when the market was down (!). Bonds aren’t risk-free when you need them most: sovereignoptimist.com/i/1757…

This proposal ignores Russia’s motives and modus operandi. This is not how Putin thinks. Putin wants to restore the Soviet empire. He didn’t hesitate to destroy the Russian economy and send a million people to die. Why would he care about “increased sanctions”? He won’t.

When you buy the S&P 500, you blindly allocate capital to the biggest companies. When everybody does it, the index sets the price instead of following it. Price discovery is dead, and increasing concentration is a natural consequence.

A regular person should not follow hedge funds. Long-term they don't outperform indexes, and indexes are simply dragged by top tech stocks. Top 30 > Top 100 > Top 500

I can’t wrap my head around the US supporting Putin. Russia is literally the only country in the world with nuclear warheads aimed at American cities. Truly mind-blowing.

Banning AI means going much slower than everybody else. Make sure you can survive that.

There is no free lunch. The fact that everybody went passive will have systemic consequences. Many companies in popular indices have no organic demand. ETFs are the main buyers. Who will buy when they start selling? sovereignoptimist.com/p/inde…

Just to be clear: it's perfectly possible that BlackRock loses their bitcoins, or is a subject to other systemic risks. It's a rational choice if having a "bitcoin exposure" is what you're after, but not "risk-free" because that doesn't exist.

Trezor is the first hardware wallet ever created. It's fully open-source (including the hardware). No need to experiment with all other flashy options.

It's funny how ripping off iOS became an industry standard and nobody even mentions it. As if 'ios' were an alternative name for 'UX design.'

Surprisingly, even dollar-cost averaging into the single top stock (and holding it) works better than DCA into the S&P 500. But below the top 5–7, returns start to diminish. I've almost finished a longer piece showing why this happens and going much deeper into it. Out this week.

I almost finished a longer piece about how index investing and S&P500 is a myth not backed by data. Even DCA-ing in the top ONE company on the market over years (whatever it is at the time) massively outperforms the index:

I believe that Bitcoin will grow faster than Nasdaq-100 for a few more years, but not forever. When you invest in NVDA or SPCX you invest in the future profits, but by projecting Bitcoin slowdown, the future profits of Strategy are worse than their current profits.

There still a huge difference between AI and human generated content:

Because bonds don't behave like they used to:

I had an immature father who was 20 when I was born. I made sure I wouldn't be one, so I took my time - and I'm a happy soon-to-be father at 40+

He could be more honest about the new SPAC which is worse than the old formula: 1. He gets paid 30% instead of 20%. 2. He can still get the money even if the SPAC is down if… the company is being sold which is actually a common exit strategy. teapaw.org/klos/status/1975281648…

It's crashing because investors realize that less than 5% of stocks are in circulation, and over the next year all the early investors and employees - who sometimes waited 20 years to finally become millionaires - will gradually join the market.

If this makes you nervous, imagine what will happen when all the early employees waiting for this moment for 20 years will be finally allowed to sell. That's coming soon.

The initial idea to buy Bitcoin was good, as was the reasoning behind it - until the "infinite money glitch" meme, which is antithetical to Bitcoin in principle.