geopolitical risk, latam, jazz. non-resident fellow @stimson, ex @folha & @AmerQuarterly columnist. author of “brazil against democracy”. my own opinions.
New York, NY
Joined June 2009
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Pela ponte Tancredo Neves. A ironia…
La Dirección Nacional de Migraciones informa que a las 22:50 hs del dia 27/10, ingresaron por el paso fronterizo de Puente internacional Tancredo Neves en la provincia de Misiones, los ciudadanos Flavio Nantes Bolsonaro, Fernanda Antunes Figueira Bolsonaro, Carolina Figueira Bolsonaro y Luiza Figueira Bolsonaro, quienes lo hicieron con documentación hábil de viaje sin ningún impedimento legal para el ingreso al país, asimismo los tránsitos fueron registrados por la autoridad de aplicación sin incidentes.
Por su parte, a las 23:30 hs, la comitiva ingresante abordó un vuelo privado despachado por la compañía Baires Fly S.A con destino a la ciudad de Guayaquil, Ecuador, según se informó en el plan de vuelo.
Roberto Simon retweeted
“Brazil is a pillar of China’s Latin America strategy,” our Brazil-based fellow, @robertosimon, writes in our new report. “It is Beijing’s top trading partner and largest investment destination in the region, and a fellow founding member of the BRICS. For the Trump administration, replacing Lula with a staunch ally would represent its greatest foreign policy success in the region since the January raid that removed Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.”
"Brazil will become even more dependent on Chinese trade, investment, and technology," writes Nonresident Fellow @Roberto Simon.
Brazil's runoff elections is quickly approaching, and the country's economic future is on the ballot. Read more here: stimson.org/2026/brazils-ele…
Roberto Simon retweeted
“Whatever the result, the Brazilian election is exposing the limits of the ‘Donroe Doctrine,’” our Brazil-based fellow, @robertosimon, writes in our new report. After all, a return of the Bolsonaros would not meaningfully reverse “China’s deepening economic influence in Brazil, or the belief among many Brazilian business executives and foreign policy elites that the best long-term strategy is to hedge against an increasingly unpredictable United States.”
"Brazil will become even more dependent on Chinese trade, investment, and technology," writes Nonresident Fellow @Roberto Simon.
Brazil's runoff elections is quickly approaching, and the country's economic future is on the ballot. Read more here: stimson.org/2026/brazils-ele…
A return of the Bolsonaros would change many things in Brazil, but it would not meaningfully reverse China’s deepening economic influence or the belief among business and policy elites that Brazil must hedge against the U.S. My piece for @StimsonCenter stimson.org/2026/brazils-ele…
Roberto Simon retweeted
In the Brazilian election, “we saw a right-wing tsunami in Congress,” our Brazil-based @StimsonCenter fellow, @robertosimon, told @barronsonline.
Brazil Looks to Slow Its Debt ‘Snowball.’ It Won’t Be Easy. trib.al/uhfUkgJ
Roberto Simon retweeted
Brazil heads to a runoff election between President Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.
Ahead of Sunday’s race, Fellow @robertosimon emphasized that "[Crime and insecurity] is mobilizing voters…that's bad news for the left."
Take a look here: npr.org/2026/10/02/nx-s1-598…
Roberto Simon retweeted
Crime “is definitely mobilizing voters” in Brazil’s election, our @StimsonCenter fellow, @robertosimon, tells NPR. “Generally speaking, that’s bad news for the left. It is a topic that traditionally favors more conservative candidates.”
npr.org/2026/10/02/nx-s1-598…
Roberto Simon retweeted
Why is Brazil seemingly impervious to Trump’s Monroe Doctrine rerun?
Its size and modest dependence on the U.S. market defang Trump’s weaponization of market access.
The low probability of a U.S. military intervention limits Trump’s second-favorite instrument of coercion.
Trump’s meddling in Brazilian politics is routinely counterproductive.
Finally, Trump’s ideological approach to foreign policy impedes the diplomacy that might otherwise influence Brazilian decision-making.
Na declaração à imprensa sobre o tarifaço imposto ao Brasil, o ministro Márcio Elias Rosa (MDIC) destacou:
Nossa prioridade, agora, é atender e apoiar os produtores afetados por esta tarifa injusta, indevida e ilegal. Mantemos a disposição ao diálogo e à negociação. Mas o nosso governo jamais celebrará qualquer acordo que vá contra os interesses do país, do nosso setor produtivo e da população brasileira.
Roberto Simon retweeted
In June, Mamdani celebrated Doctor Socrates, biography written by me. In July, he celebrates Garrincha, biography translated from Portuguese to English by me. Coincidence? I think not, compañero Zohran. Pelé is next! ✊🏼⚽️🇧🇷
Quero ver homenagearmos um@ grande historiador@ brasileiro assim um dia…
Roberto Simon retweeted
Amazing if four months of war comes to an end with J.D. Vance getting an email "Please DocuSign these documents: IranUSA_MOU_Final_FINAL_ActuallyFinal_V43"
Pakistani officials saying that the Iran-US agreement MOU will be signed electrically tomorrow. Araghchi implied this was the case in a lengthy interview for Iran state TV yesterday.
This suggests that there will be no in-person component (though it's possible something comes after the signing).
Technical discussions will commence shortly thereafter.
Roberto Simon retweeted
Yes.
Next question
Does referee case show Fifa has lost control of its own World Cup? bbc.in/49Rqxtc
Aos que defendem, no Brasil, uma mudança p semi-presidencialismo (sem reforma no sistema partidário): olhem o Peru.
