📉 benchmark underperformer 🍀 rarely lucky 🧠⚠️ dumber than you think!! 💸 no financial advice 🧑🏻💻 learning how to computer 🤡 unrealistic expectations
Joined February 2018
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Coocoo retweeted
August? I've been saying this even since before any LTAs were signed in June teapaw.org/trydotworks/status/207…
LTAs are made to be broken. They're just a hedge against higher prices and when prices drop, everyone breaks the LTA and pay the breakup fee.
Memory goes from $20 -> $1000: Sign LTA to hedge for it going to $2000
Memory goes from $1000 -> $20: Break the LTA and buy for $20
LTAs aren't going to keep anyone paying inflated prices all they represent is the memory Co getting a fee when prices crash.
Coocoo retweeted
Termio and Rex would be the best alternative for conductor
Conductor is dead. Here are 69 alternatives. What are you using?
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Coocoo retweeted
$CRCT obviously beats, stock +30% 🚀
There are not that many pure plays on creativity: Janome $6445.T and Cricut $CRCT are more or less it. Hobbies, gifts and crafts plus personalization are among the few growing categories in consumer, part of the #AnalogRenaissance trend, and AI makes the whole process easier.
- Placer: hobbies, gifts and crafts store visits +6.8% YoY (Jul to Sep), the third-fastest format after bookstores and off-price. That category is Michaels, Hobby Lobby and Joann’s former footprint, so it does cover the craft aisle.
- Circana’s tech experts call hobby purchases “essential” for shoppers who cut elsewhere. Personalization is one of its five gift themes, though the examples are charms, picture frames and fragrance, not DIY
- BCG: 91% of shoppers research purchases; durable, value-for-money goods win. A sewing machine or sticker maker fit that logic.
- r/hobbies +46% to +47% YoY, steady since August (generic hobbies subreddit).
Coocoo retweeted
Aolani, a Singapore-founded neocloud and NVIDIA Cloud Partner, noticed Funda's work on neolabs and physical AI and reached out to say they are noticing demand from US players in Southeast Asia for the first time.
They were kind enough to offer a perspective on neocloud demand / financing in the region. This post is free to read.
collyerbridge.com/p/a-neoclo…
Coocoo retweeted
We shorted $GOTO from its IPO all the way down to Rp28/share.
On 2 October 2026, we turned NEUTRAL.
Why? Because the fundamentals are finally catching up with the valuation.
GoTo's 3Q26 results are difficult to ignore:
• Net profit: Rp441bn, up 75% QoQ
• Revenue: Rp5.6tn, up 17% YoY
• Adjusted EBITDA: Rp950bn, up 84% YoY
• Adjusted FCF: Rp1.21tn, up 389% YoY
• GoPay EBITDA: Rp550bn, up 304% YoY
• Outstanding loans: Rp12tn, up 51% YoY
And here's the interesting part.
Management values GoTo at just 3.3x FY26E EV/EBITDA, compared with 12.8x for on-demand services peers and 13.6x for fintech peers.
That's a 74–76% valuation discount.
But cheap doesn't automatically mean BUY.
GoPay's rapidly expanding loan book introduces credit risk, especially if persistently high oil prices eventually force Indonesia to raise subsidized fuel prices, squeezing household disposable income and potentially driving higher defaults.
Meanwhile, Gojek faces regulatory pressure, weakening margins and potentially softer consumer demand.
Add rising Indonesian bond yields, rupiah depreciation and a higher country risk premium, and the market's skepticism becomes understandable.
Our short thesis has played out. The turnaround is real. The valuation is increasingly interesting.
But we're not bullish yet.
The question is no longer whether GoTo can make money. It's whether GoTo can KEEP making money when Indonesia's economic environment gets tougher.
Full analysis below. 👇
Coocoo retweeted
Render Video Composer 27 is now on App Store with major render performance improvements
apps.apple.com/jp/app/render…
Coocoo retweeted
I started MiaoYan in 2020, and six years later it's on iPhone and iPad too. It's a native Markdown editor written in Swift, one App Store purchase covers Mac, iPhone and iPad with the same iCloud Drive folder, and the Mac app stays free and open source.
miaoyan.app
Coocoo retweeted
Link REIT (823 HK): The new (internal) management team is selling non-core assets above book value and using the proceeds to fund unit buybacks. Rental income is finally stabilizing. And Southbound flows from the new REIT Connect are happening in 1H2027.
asiancenturystocks.com/p/upd…
Coocoo retweeted
Hey! I finally wrote up my thoughts on the Indonesia stock market / situation:
open.substack.com/pub/scalpa…
Coocoo retweeted
Never paid much attention to the Nike story but now I recall this Donahoe guy is also the idiot who turned eBay away from being a great place to buy quirky secondhand stuff into a very poor approximation of Amazon (before Amazon turned to crap)
نايكي تعيش أسوأ ايامها مع هبوط السهم لأقل مستوى من 5 سنوات
الفكرة القديمة كانت مبنية على أن نايكي تبيع المنتج للمحلات بـ 70$، و المحل يبيعه لك بـ100$.. والجميع مستفيد
لكن في 2020، قرر الـCEO الجديد وقتها جون دوناهو أن العالم بيتحول للتسوق أونلاين بلا رجعة.. و قرر أن نايكي ما تحتاج المحلات و أفضل لها أن تحتفظ بالـ100$ كاملة في جيبها عوضا عن تقاسمها مع المحلات
فسحب منتجاته منهم، و وجّه العملاء للشراء أونلاين. و ارتفعت المبيعات الرقمية مباشرة بـ64% في 2021، و السهم طلع وتوقع الجميع أن استراتيجيته نجحت
لكن كوفيد انتهى ، والناس رجعت للمحلات.. و منتجات نايكي كانت مختفية.. بالتالي الناس شافوا البديل: منتجات On، هوكا، و غيرهم
و زاد الطين بلة تباطئ مبيعات نايكي في الصين اللي نزلت من فوق 8 مليار إلى أقل عن 6 مليار، لدرجة أن نايكي وقفت تعلن عن أرقامها بشكل منفصل في الصين لأن لا يتأثر السهم بنفس الحدة
ومن فترة غيرت نايكي الرئيس التنفيذي مرة أخرى.. و بدت تحاول ترجع لأرفف المحلات الرياضية، لكن الوضع مب سهل و بيحتاج سنين
النظام القديم شافته نايكي على أنه هدر و ظنت أنها بتوفر الفرق في جيبها .. لكن ما لم تحسب حسابه هو أن تلك التكلفة كانت تكلفة التسويق فعليا، و لما انلغت.. اختفى الطلب معها
Coocoo retweeted
japaninterface.substack.com/
Interesting substack i recently found, the author really likes to do deep dives on niche industrials / b2b…
I also think their “about us” section is a gem if you plan on looking into Japanese companies, their intelectual framework looks really robust!
Coocoo retweeted
Looking for a gaming company with:
- stable operating cash flow
- doing buybacks
- zero debt
- steadily growing revenues and net
- PE of 15
this one might be for you 😉
Wildcard Stock: Why I think NetEase ($NTES )’s new “GTA of Anime” could be a big deal, and why games built for busy Gen Z's could become a new segment:
Picture the usual otaku Gen Zs gamer... at mid 20s they are starting to outgrow the games they grew up playing during Covid19... A lot grew up playing story-heavy games like Genshin in those days. But now they are older, working, and have less time to spend grinding for hours.
So here is a crazy idea/speculation i had: what if the next opportunity are "anime games" that are easier to pick up and play casually, cross platform games where you can jump in for 20–30 minutes, hang out with friends, explore, mess around, and leave.
What type of company closest to making those type of games?...
Introducing: NetEase.
About a week after downloading Where Winds Meet(NetEase's game), I started playing it with some friends. We all had one thing in common: we were getting tired of MiHoYo and wanted something new.
Then I went to a Pokemon card bazaar and kept hearing all my friends talk about some “anime GTA” coming out early next year.
its called ANANTA... also a game by NetEase
What surprised me was how many people already knew about it. Some of my friends had been waiting for almost two years. Even one friend who hasn't played Mihoyo games in a long time was very excited about it.
And I started to wonder: what if ANANTA can give anime fans what GTA gives its players... an open world game thats fun and casual enough to play for lets say 30mins... rather than one that constantly asks you to progress, BUT also gameworthy enough for a GenZ used to story games...
And you can drive around, explore, mess around with friends, customize your character, do random activities and just... play.
That's what makes this NetEase speculation interesting to me...
a rough look at the business shows that it is growing steadily: H1 2026, gaming revenue increased 8.3% YoY, while gross profit grew 16.2%.
from 2017 to 2025 Revenues grew at a CAGR of 11.31%, and Net Income at CAGR of 13.22%... at the same period GPM went from 56% to 67%...
and to top it all off... they got ZERO DEBT😂and is very very solvent...
Jokes aside... the future is where i believe things could get really interesting!
ANANTA has reportedly passed 17M pre-registrations ahead of its 2027 launch.
If it becomes a hit alongside Where Winds Meet and Marvel Rivals, NetEase could be entering another cycle of new-game growth...
So my speculation isn't simply “ANANTA will be the next Genshin.”
It's that there may be a growing group of players who still love anime and gaming but don't have the time to play the way they used to.(new segment in the market)
And ANANTA and NetEase might be there for them....
