Evolution Trading

I’ve said this before.. I believe $IREN will be generating a bare minimum of $16b ARR by year end 2027. This projection is derived from a bottoms-up approach by calculating approximate GPU quantities per model across each site in $IREN's 2027 roadmap multiplied by various GPU rental rates for each model, and adding it on top of the $4b ARR minimum for 2026 (even though they'll likely generate more than this). The upper end of my model projects $22b ARR, so I’m expecting a range of $16b to $22b in ARR as of right now. This range can definitely shift higher but I aligned with Dan’s recent comments regarding the trade-off between $ per IT MW and customer prepayments. See chart below.👇 GPU Model & Quantity Assumption The GPU quantities for each site were calculated based on the specifications across 2026 sites, assuming that gets copied and pasted into future sites. -> ~80,000 B300s (Childress) -> ~7,600 GB300s (Canal Flats) -> ~132,700 VR200s (Horizon 5-6 and Sweetwater 1) I used the EV/ARR valuation approach to arrive at projected share prices, and since there's debate on here about what multiple $IREN would receive by early 2028, I provided a range from 6x to 15x to show the possibilities. In my opinion, because ARR is expected to 4x from year end 2026 into year end 2027, and then potentially 2x the year after that, I'd think this growth rate would command higher multiples than most are using assuming, especially if we enter a bull market. Balance Sheet - $23b in debt (includes funding for all of 2028 buildout) - $10b in cash Share Dilution I assumed 500m shares outstanding, which takes into account today's 400m shares, NVIDIA's investment (+30m shares), and dilution associated with funding all of 2028 buildout (+35m shares if diluted at an average of $50/share). All this adds up to 465m shares -> round up to 500m shares for conservatism. Keep in mind, I’m assuming customer prepayments remain the same with what we’ve seen in the past when really they’ll likely increase. This could also potentially mean less debt and/or dilution but I’m trying to be conservative with my estimates. Also, if the GPU rental rates I laid out below represent realistic rates that $IREN could contract next year, then it makes the share prices (color coded below) that much more realistic. As I alluded to before, the range of GPU rental rates I applied may shift higher considering the rate in which pricing power is increasing, but I'm taking into account the possibility of contracting lower than expected GPU rental rates in exchange for higher customer prepayments for the foreseeable future. On a final note, at the center of my valuation table I boxed the share price that signifies a middle ground expectation (~$375 per share). This does not necessarily represent my personal base case since I expect $IREN to hit closer to $22b ARR by year end 2027, and with a 12x EV/ARR, this would put the price closer to $500 by 2028. I've been vocal about this on here. I'm just pointing out the middle ground to challenge those claiming that $IREN will be less than $300 by 2028. To me, that doesn’t make sense as it clearly assumes $IREN contracts very low rates throughout next year. Anyway, I hope this framework helps investors better understand the potential possibilities on what share prices we can see for $IREN based on their GPU deployments next year. As always, constructive feedback is welcomed. @BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 @Agrippa_Inv @OInvests @ChairmansLedger @ilzmcfly @mcF_dan @StockAnalystPro