Father, husband, veteran. Invest early and often: spiritually, physically, emotionally, mentally, financially, and relationally.

ID.IT.UT.AK.CO.NM.FL | IRQ.AFG
Joined June 2013
Hand of God retweeted
曾用2700万美元一个月狂赚26亿美元、创下100倍神话的华尔街传奇大佬比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman),前两天在CNBC放话:他手里有两只股票还能再涨10倍,是整个美股赔率最不对称的投资。 说的就是房利美(FNMA)和房地美(FMCC)。 很多人以为他是看特朗普上台才跑出来蹭热度,但去查美国证监会的13D档案,这笔仓位他已经死拿了13年: 2013年10月,他从1.54美元开始扫货,砸了4亿美元把两家公司买满近10%,房利美均价2.29美元,房地美均价2.14美元。 买进去就是十年寒冬。 2021年最高法院判股东败诉,单日暴跌32%;2022年底最低跌到0.35美元,账面浮亏85%。但他一股没卖,硬扛到今天。 他为什么死磕这两家公司?因为背后有一本极荒诞的账: 08年次贷危机两房被政府接管,财政部前后注资1914亿美元救命,拿走10%优先股和79.9%的普通股认股权证。 结果2012年两房恢复大赚后,政府突然修改协议搞“净值清扫”,把两房所有利润100%全部上交,且不算还本金。 到现在,两房累计上交了3010亿美元,比借的钱多还了一千多亿,但账面上反而还欠财政部3000多亿美元。 阿克曼赌的翻盘方案只有三步: 1. 财政部认账,承认已交的3010亿算还清优先股; 2. 政府行使认股权证,拿走79.9%普通股; 3. 直接让两房重返纽交所挂牌。 按他测算,这样政府能再赚3000亿美元,普通股每股能值45到50美元——对比现价4.21美元,正好是10倍。 但按4.21美元的现价倒推,市场给的成功概率其实只有7%左右。卡脖子的主要是三点: 一是财政部如果不肯注销那3000多亿优先股、而是直接债转股,老股东会被稀释殆尽; 二是一旦私有化削弱了政府兜底预期,债券买家要求更高利息,就会推高全美房贷利率,这是谁都不敢碰的政治红线; 三是必须在特朗普任期结束前完成,而下个月就是中期选举。 2块多的成本拿了13年,年化还不到5%。这到底是十倍黄金底,还是一张完全看政客脸色的期权?做了个7分钟的视频,把当年的建仓档案和这笔账完整理了一遍。
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Hand of God retweeted
Here’s how sextortion works. A predator gets an explicit image of a child, real or faked with AI, and uses it as a weapon. But not every predator wants the same thing, and what they want tells you which kind of sextortion it is: •Sexually motivated: they want more images. It most often targets girls. •Financially motivated: they want money. These predators often pose as a girl to get a teenage boy to send one image, then threaten to share it unless he pays. •Sadistically motivated: they want to see a child suffer. They force kids to hurt themselves or others, and they record it. No matter which kind it is, the predator is counting on your child’s silence. One conversation can break that. Get the tools to start it: timtebowfoundation.org/while… If you or someone you love is in crisis, call or text 988 anytime.
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Hand of God retweeted
👍👍 “And then you’re going to have, I would say, a stupid amount of capital. There’s no scenario in which these entities would be a threat to the market.”
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Hand of God retweeted
True
Replying to @JonOksenholt
There’s a huge political risk to inaction here. The administration keeps pointing out $FNMA and $FMCC are printing cash and worth a trillion dollars. If they do nothing and Democrats take back power in 2028, they’re literally leaving a massive war chest on the table for a liberal agenda. Regardless of Bessent’s risk aversion, moving soon is the only way to prevent the exact “waste, fraud, and abuse” they rail against.
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Hand of God retweeted
Re Bessent: The short “no spin” version is that if you were supporting an exit from conservatorship, you wouldn’t keep framing mortgage spreads as an obstacle & questioning the benefits to homeowners /mtg holders. One positive is that he was forced to admit something may happen next year (or the year after)..also we have Trump/Pulte.. $FMCC $FNMA etc excerpts of prior info👇
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Bessent Speaks on the GSEs, by @RuleofLawGuy1 ruleoflawguy.substack.com/p/… $fnma $fmcc
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Hand of God retweeted
El Niño weather events have pulsed through the world's oceans for millennia. They are not new, nor are they a modern abnormality. There have been around 27 El Niño events since 1900, each following broadly similar patterns of intensity. There is no sound reason to expect the current cycle to be any different. Treating a routine, well-understood natural oscillation as an artificial aberration ignores the long-established history of planetary rhythms. Predicting exact rainfall distribution weeks or months ahead remains virtually impossible. No one can dictate atmospheric behavior in advance. Yet we have become accustomed to a style of forecasting that frames every routine shift - no matter how minor - as an unprecedented crisis. El Niño is a foundational component of the global climate engine, balancing heat across the Pacific, the largest ocean on Earth. Rainfall drives agriculture, fills reservoirs and sustains life. Extended cold and aridity, by contrast, carry far greater risks to human society. Earth's climate moves in recurring cycles. As seasons change and ocean currents shift, each El Niño varies slightly in character, but they all fit comfortably within the baseline of natural variability - a system that has experienced these exact fluctuations countless times over centuries. While modern thermal modeling can detect shifts in sea surface temperatures months in advance, it can't map local rainfall with certainty. The actual weather an El Niño delivers - be it gentle, drought-breaking rain or an intense storm sequence - only becomes clear in real time. True measurement belongs in the aftermath, not the preamble. El Niño is not a sudden anomaly; it is a recurring chapter in Earth’s seasonal story. Forecasting serves us best when it treats the climate for what it is: a complex, living system that reveals its true nature in its own time. IMAGE: The Pacific Ocean in motion: a vast, complex thermodynamic system balancing Earth’s energy through deep-time natural rhythms.
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Hand of God retweeted
💎 🙌
Replying to @JonOksenholt
Any insight on the recent sell off of the twins, Jon? I’d like to hear your opinion a lot more than anyone else on this app. Thank you!
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Hand of God retweeted
Replying to @washingtonpost
70 million abortions in the last 53 years and 100 million in the last 110 years. Almost the same number have died under Marxism. The two deadliest threats to humanity.
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The evidence of history suggests the modern climate agenda is designed to reshape human society, weaken sovereignty and consolidate centralised global control. The foundational flaw of the climate narrative is the omission of context. We were told current temperatures and CO₂ levels were unprecedented, yet geological history tells the exact opposite story. For the past 34 million years - since the glaciation of Antarctica, and driven by tectonic shifts and changing ocean currents - Earth has been locked in the Late Cenozoic Ice Age. These conditions intensified 2.58 million years ago into the Quaternary glaciation, characterised by long, brutal glacial periods interrupted by temporary, warmer interglacials, like the Holocene we live in today. During the past 541 million years of exploding biological diversity (the Phanerozoic Eon) the global temperature has averaged 24°C, ranging from 18°C to 34°C peaks. This is fully 9°C warmer than today’s calculated average of 15°C. We are living in unusually 'cold times' and there is no likelihood of an urgent global warming or climate change facing human society. The other nemesis comes in the form of CO₂, which is the foundation for photosynthesis, agriculture and the rise of complex life on Earth. Rather than suffering from an excess of CO₂, Earth has been experiencing a long-term carbon decline. Prior to the industrial era, low CO₂ levels contributed to global aridity, the retreat of biomass and loss of ancient rainforests. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ represents an opportunity for life's biological resurgence, as a fertiliser that stimulates biological growth and expands the planet's agricultural produce. The natural world has endured genuine, cataclysmic upheavals - but this is not one of them. The great extinction events of the past - such as the Carnian Pluvial Episode or the End-Permian extinction - played out over tens of thousands to millions of years. Yet the biological world survived, adapted and survived. When the planet experienced sustained, greenhouse conditions, life didn't collapse - it flourished. During the Eocene Epoch 56 million years ago, palm trees grew in the Arctic, ice disappeared from the poles and lush rainforests and endless biology blanketed 85% of the Earth's landmass. Far from a wasteland, the Eocene was a time of astonishing biological abundance of food and a massive radiation of mammalian life. The lessons of history show us that warmer conditions are not to be feared; they are catalysts for biological resilience and growth. The brief fluctuations of past decades do not constitute a climate crisis; they are evidence of a temporary, microscopic blip in geological time.
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Hand of God retweeted
Sorry Bernie and AOC and Mamdani, we’re all billionaires now. galepooley.substack.com/p/so…
Bernie Sanders says the top 1% owns more than the bottom 93%, that fewer than a thousand billionaires got $2.2 trillion richer last year, and that it's "obscene." It's the most seductive and most wrong economic argument of our time. Let me explain why. First, wealth distribution follows a power law. Always. Everywhere. Books, music, startups, followers on X, goals in soccer. A small minority captures most of the value. That's not a bug of capitalism. It's the mathematical signature of every system where value gets created. So the only question that matters isn't "how big is the rich's slice?" It's "is the cake growing, and is the slice of the poorest growing with it?" And the answer is yes. In 1990, more than one human in three lived in extreme poverty. Today it's about one in ten. During exactly the period when billionaires multiplied. Bernie shows you the slice. He never shows you the cake. Second thing he won't tell you: past a certain level, wealth stops being consumption. It becomes capital allocation. Elon Musk isn't sleeping on a pile of cash. He owns stakes in Tesla, SpaceX, xAI. Jeff Bezos owns Amazon stock. That "$2.2 trillion" isn't sitting in a checking account. It's factories, rockets, data centers, millions of jobs. Nobody can eat $100 billion. You can only decide where to invest it. Once you understand that, the whole debate changes. The real question becomes: who allocates capital better? The people who built Amazon, SpaceX and Nvidia? Or politicians? A 5% wealth tax isn't "taking money from the rich." It's taking investment decisions away from people who proved they can create value and handing them to people who proved the opposite. Because the fundamental difference between an entrepreneur and a politician is consequences. The entrepreneur invests his own money. If he allocates badly, he loses everything. The market corrects him brutally, no appeal. That's why most startups die: the system kills bad decisions. The politician invests other people's money. If he allocates badly, nothing happens. Worse, he gets a bigger budget to "fix the problem." Milton Friedman put it better than anyone. There are four ways to spend money. Your money on yourself: you care about price and quality. Your money on others: you care about price. Others' money on yourself: you care about quality. Others' money on others: you care about nothing. Government is the fourth box. By design. Perfect example: California high-speed rail. Approved in 2008 for about $33 billion. Current estimated cost: over $100 billion. Passengers carried: zero. No entrepreneur would have survived that. The politicians who pushed it built careers on it. And when allocation has no consequences, it eventually finds a buyer. A politician who controls billions without accountability becomes the most profitable target in the world for anyone who wants to steer that money. The irony is that the left that rails against billionaires is itself funded by billionaires. George Soros is one of the biggest Democratic donors in history. The Gates Foundation shapes public health policy across the planet. Politicians don't fight billionaires. They pick their own. The ones who fund the state over the ones who compete with it. So if we actually want fewer poor people, we have to stop judging ideas by their intentions and start judging them by their results. And the results are brutally clear. China, 1978: Deng Xiaoping opens the economy to markets. More than 800 million people escape extreme poverty. The largest retreat of misery in human history. Not through redistribution. Through the freedom to build. India, 1991: liberalization. Same movie. South Korea and North Korea: same people, same language, same starting point in 1953. One became one of the most advanced economies on earth. The other has famines. Poland and Ukraine: comparable living standards in 1990. Today the average Pole is more than three times richer than the average Ukrainian. Argentina: a year and a half of liberalization, and the poverty rate falls from over 50% to around 30%. No country in history escaped poverty by punishing the people who build. Every single one did it by letting them build. And if you want to see what Bernie's program looks like in real life, you don't have to imagine it. It exists. It's called France. We've been running it for 45 years. Mass nationalizations in 1981. Two years later, Socialist president Mitterrand has to reverse course into austerity. Retirement at 60. The 35-hour workweek. A wealth tax for 35 years. Hundreds of wealthy households left every year for Belgium, Switzerland, London, taking their capital, their companies and their future taxes with them. Macron finally scrapped it in 2018. Hollande's 75% tax: raised a few hundred million, drove talent out, abandoned after two years. One of the highest tax burdens in the OECD. Public spending around 57% of GDP, a record in the developed world. Last balanced budget: 1974. Public debt: over €3.4 trillion. Mass unemployment for four decades. If taxing the rich and growing the state made people prosperous, France would be the richest country on the planet. It isn't. GDP per capita in France is barely more than half of America's. It's lower than Mississippi, the poorest state in the US. Not a single global tech giant. Our best engineers build Silicon Valley instead. I've been going back and forth between Paris and San Francisco for years. I see it every week. And California is about to replay the movie. Prop 40, on the ballot November 3rd, would take 5% of billionaires' net worth. Even Gavin Newsom, a Democratic governor, opposes it. The state's own nonpartisan budget analyst warns that income tax revenue could drop every year if the wealthy leave. Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Peter Thiel have reportedly already started moving their assets out. You don't fight poverty by shrinking the top. You fight it by growing the cake. Bernie wants a society where nobody has too much. I want a society where nobody has too little. The first has been tried everywhere and produces equality in stagnation. The second lifted a billion people out of misery. Choose.
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Hand of God retweeted
🚨🇺🇸 A random bystander took down the Oregon school shooter in under three minutes... in a district that BANS guns on campus Three minutes. That's how long it took police to reach Silver Rail Elementary in Bend after a teenager with a long gun walked in, and by the time they got there he was already dead on the floor, killed by a civilian nobody has named yet. He'd already murdered a 5-year-old, an 8-year-old, an 11-year-old and their teacher. A 7-year-old and a 54-year-old teacher are fighting for their lives tonight. Here's the part the lawyers are going to fight over. Bend's school district banned every firearm on its property in 2022, permit holders included, and state law says a gun on campus has to be unloaded and locked in a car. Police won't say where the bystander was standing or whether he was supposed to have a gun at all. So the system said no guns, the killer brought one anyway, and the only thing that stopped him was someone who may have also broken the rule. Whatever the circumstances, the person is a HERO. Source: New York Post / Writer: Daniel
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Hand of God retweeted
Let's get something straight. Just because the government stole your money out of your paycheck for 40+ years (and they did) does not mean that you should be entitled to money from mine as a form of restitution. You should have been an adult and planned for your own retirement. It is not my job to bankroll yours out of my wages, nor is it any other young American's. If you built your retirement plan around a government program, that's on you. Ya should've pulled yourself up by your bootstraps. You had multiple options: save your money, open a Roth IRA, max a 401(k), invest in stocks or precious metals, etc. Nobody stopped ya. The money that you “paid into” Social Security (SS) is gone. Gone like the wind, buddy. It's gone like a freight train. Gone like yesterday. Gone like a '59 Cadillac. Gone like all the good things that ain't ever comin' back. That's because you paid a TAX (ever heard of the FICA?) and the money forcibly withheld from your paycheck went into the “general welfare” fund. It was not set aside just for you in a private lockbox with your name on it or invested in the stock market. It was spent the second it landed in the hands of the greedy bastards running our government. They way SS works is that the money “contributed” by newer “investors” is used to pay older “investors.” It operates like a private sector Ponzi scheme, but only it is involuntary and mandated by law (which, if anything, makes it worse than a Ponzi scheme). And if anyone in the private sector attempted to set up a retirement plan for their employees like this, he or she would be handcuffed and sent to prison. The money collected by payroll taxes were taken from one group (workers) and handed to another (retirees), exactly like public welfare, exactly like Medicaid, and exactly like any other wealth transfer program. People will claim that the program ran a surplus for decades, but they haven't been held in cash since 1939. By law, any surplus must be lent to the federal government by purchasing Treasury bonds. In return, the “trust fund” gets a stack of IOUs. But IOUs are not real money. It's just a piece of paper essentially stating that “The Treasury owes SS 'x' amount.” As I said, the actual money collected by the payroll tax was spent the moment it arrived. The so-called “trust fund” contains no physical cash, no gold, and no stocks. So, when it comes time to pay benefits to retirees, the federal government has to redeem that bond with real cash, which means either (a) borrowing money, (b) raising taxes, or (c) cutting spending to generate a budget surplus. According to a 2024 Cato Institute analysis, the SS retirement and survivors program relied on ~$1.08 trillion in Treasury interest, bond redemptions, and transfers to cover cash-flow shortfalls between 2010 and 2023. In 2023, payroll taxes covered just 85.2% of the SS program costs. Taxes on benefits covered another 4%, leaving a 10.8% gap financed through trust fund interest and bond redemptions. Cato's analysis also suggests that the program is projected to add $4.1 trillion to federal deficits over the 2024–33 period, including associated interest costs. 🔗cato.org/sites/cato.org/file… So, when someone says, “I paid into it,” what they're really saying is, “I paid a tax, the government spent it, and in exchange I got the government promise to tax future workers to pay me back.” If our payroll tax dollars were actually invested in the market instead of funneled to current retirees, the returns would be astronomical, and it'd allow families to build generational wealth. Say you start working at age 22 and retire at age 67 (a 45-year career). Your half of the payroll tax (employee side, 6.2%) on a median income of, let's say, $50,000 is ~$3,100 a year. Invest that annually in a broad index fund at the historical market average of ~10% annual returns, and by 67 you've got ~$2.2 million. Add the employer's matching 6.2% and you're sitting on about $4.4 million. Even assuming more conservative annual returns of 6% or 8%, that combined investment would grow to $1.32 million or $2.46 million, respectively, over 45 years, before inflation, fees, and taxes. Compare those figures to what SS actually pays out, a median earner's effective return is closer to 1–2%, and for younger workers it's projected to be negative. That is, people my age will have “paid in” more than we will ever get back. What's more, if you die before your spouse does, he or she can collect your SS benefits until they die. However, neither your kids nor grandkids can. If you actually “paid into” a legitimate trust fund, there'd be money left over for them. There isn't because you paid a tax. The system benefitting you is not going to be here to sustain us. According to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, the retirement and survivors trust fund is projected to exhaust its reserves in 2032, after which continuing revenue would cover approximately 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts. The worker-to-beneficiary ratio has cratered from roughly 16:1 at the program's start to under 3:1 today, and it keeps falling as the boomers retire and birth rates drop, the latter of which is multifactorial (e.g., families requiring less manual labor and systematic destruction of the nuclear family largely because of feminism and hookup culture (both of which are an undesired side effect of social media). 🔗heraldtribune.com/story/news… People are also living longer than ever before. In 1935 when SS was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, average life expectancy in the U.S. was ~61 years and the retirement age was set to 65. In layman terms, that meant the average person would not live long enough to collect SS benefits, and if one did, he or she likely wouldn't collect for long. Today, however, average life expectancy in the U.S. ~80 years but the retirement age has only been raised slightly to 67 (and that's only for people born after 1960). 🔗ourworldindata.org/grapher/l… 🔗ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v76n… That means that retirement age (or really, just the age at which one should be eligible to collect benefits, not necessarily actual retirement) today should be much closer to 80. Now, even if you adjust for infant and child mortality, which were admittedly more prevalent in the 1930s, Americans who survived to age 65 in 1935 could expect to live another 12–14 years, on average. Today, someone reaching age 65 can expect to live another 19–21 years. The number of Americans age 65+ has increased from ~9% of the U.S. population in 1960 to ~18% today. Either way you square it, the minimum age at which a person should be able to collect SS benefits ought to be raised into the low-to-mid-70s, even if they retire years earlier. Here's another hard-to-swallow pill. 💊 The Supreme Court has ruled that you actually do not have any contractual right to the SS benefits you're now demanding. In Fleming v. Nestor (1960), the Court held that Social Security benefits are not an “accrued property right” and that paying the payroll tax does not create a contract with the government. 🔗supreme.justia.com/cases/fed… The Court also upheld SS as being a general welfare spending program in Helvering v. Davis (1937), treating the payroll tax and benefits payments as two legally separate things. Essentially, the Supreme Court states that the “insurance” policy was packaging, not law. 🔗supreme.justia.com/cases/fed… Your benefit is a statutory entitlement. It is a political promise that Congress can modify or eliminate at any time, and you have no legal recourse when it does. So, when you say you “paid in” and are therefore owed a check, the highest court in the land has already said that's not how it works. And spare me the “I didn't vote for this” routine. Few people alive today did as it was enacted in 1935. But your generation and the generations before you kept voting for politicians who kept this system alive. You personally may not have (and KUDOS to you if that's the case!), but you'd be an exception. Every politician who has dared touch this third rail has been severely punished for it. During the 1964 election cycle, GOP nominee Barry Goldwater proposed making SS voluntary, and the Lyndon B. Johnson campaign turned it into one of the most effective attack ads in American history. Barry lost in a landslide. 🔗time.com/archive/6832308/nat… In 2005, President George W. Bush proposed partial privatization of SS with “personal accounts.” Specifically, he suggested that young workers could choose to divert up to 4% of their payroll tax into a personal investment account that they could then pass onto their heirs. That's not complete reform, but it was better than nothing. 🔗georgewbush-whitehouse.archi… And of course, the Democrats and many Republicans shot the proposal down and ran attack ads claiming that seniors would lose all of their benefits. These ads, of course, were misleading, if not all-out fraudulent, but it worked. The backlash Bush received from seniors and the AARP was so bad that Congress never brought it to a vote and his approval numbers slid. 🔗factcheck.org/2005/02/moveon… In 2011, Texas governor Rick Perry (who I actually had the pleasure of meeting in April) called SS a “Ponzi scheme” and “monstrous lie” during the presidential GOP primary, and it sank his frontrunner status. 🔗cbsnews.com/news/rick-perry-… Any candidate who so much as whispers about raising the retirement age (or age at which one can collect the benefits) or letting young workers keep some (or all) of their payroll tax money gets branded by Republican boomers and virtually all Democrats as demonic. They say something to the effect of, “You just want to throw grandma off a cliff!” But I am not running for public office, which means I do not have to beat around the bush. I can be as open and honest about this issue as I want and the only thing it will cost me are some fans who cannot cope with the facts I outlined above. Emotional blackmail will not work with me. It didn't with the COVID Nazis. It isn't going to now. Realistically and morally, I want us to band together and look for a way out of this unsustainable system that is as painless as possible for everyone. The status quo is unacceptable and everyone knows it even if they refuse to say it out loud. However, the more I see older people (primarily boomers) double down on this government-run Ponzi scheme because they want to squeeze every last drop out of this lemon instead of making sacrifices to reduce the burden on their kids and grandkids, the more I am inclined to not care about the consequences some might face if we cut it. Deep down in my heart, however, I do have a moral compass (thanks, Mom) and I do not want to put anyone out on the street. I do not hate old people. As a matter of fact, I relate better to them because I am an old soul in a young person's body. One of my two grandmothers actually relies on SS for her retirement income (she has not been great with her money since my grandad died 16 years ago). The other one receives it, too, but definitely does not need it. But the other's situation, like anyone else in the same boat, is not taxpayers' problem. As I said, I do not hate old people. There are a lot of great old people. Many follow me here. But I do have resentment towards older generations who stared down the barrel of economic collapse and refused to do anything at all to enact or vote for reform because it personally would inconvenience them. Again, that doesn't mean you're one of those people specifically. I'm speaking in broad terms. We need to figure out how to abolish the SS scam and it needs to be bipartisan. People need to take their biases out of the equation and look at it objectively. I am not a parent, but having had wonderful parents to raise me, I cannot for the life of me understand why any parent or grandparent would not immediately do anything they could to ensure their descendants' lives are better than their own.
This guy should stick to weather but every once in a while he crosses my timeline shooting off his arrogant mouth about SS and disgust for boomers and GenX. First things first: “Cut’em all off right on the cusp of retirement (or already retired). I don’t care”. Just a garbage human being. A real piece of shit, this guy. Now to his entitled POS arguments: Yes we PAYED INTO IT. Through payroll taxes. No choice, our entire working lives living under the same model this shitbag wants to pull the rug out from under because he is a selfish piece of shit. Seeing a theme yet? Then he pivots to the other ignorant argument people like him spew everyday: “Those boomers VOTED to bankrupt the country” Oh yeah? I voted fiscally conservative my entire life, including to raise retirement age when I would be affected. Why? Because I was stuck in the same system and used my voting power in the small way I could to try to fix it. As did nearly half the country every two years. And guess whose vote counts just as much as mine? Millennials and Gen Z. How fiscally conservative have their votes (that count every bit as much as mine) been for the past 30-45 years? Why haven’t you fixed the problem yet smart guy? One thing your generations could be doing or have done to help is to get married and raise families instead of shooting your entitled mouths off online about culling your parents and grandparents. The majority of like thinkers among my peers complained about social security when we were younger too. Often loudly, really wanting a better system. You know what we didn’t do? Say “let those old people starve and die so I can stop paying in”. Seriously GFY
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The horn has been blowing. 🎺 $FNMA $FMCC DJT said multiple times last year he's taking Fannie/Freddie public. Now 3 shoutouts for Pulte in 3 days. Is he signaling his supporters to get positioned? No one blows the horn louder. IMO still holding.
$FNMA $FMCC DJT commends @pulte in Bullhead City, AZ for the third time in as many days & gives Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac another "Trillion Dolla Holla".
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Hand of God retweeted
Still holding f2 with or without Pirate Burry? Trump approved rate hikes kills Housing? Housing Market Dead forever? Inflation Up but for how long? Did Si signal the Top?! 😂 Has Ackman sold Commons? @BillAckman Pulte quiet on Exit path, but always talking? Do Common Shareholder’s deserve Rights? Will the SPS be treated as fully paid? Can $MMTLP help with FOIA requests? What FOIA’s are worth pursuing? Did Burry drink Glens Kool-Aid? Just some of my questions, sure people will find additional interesting observations to add this space call Saturday! All Speakers Welcome, No bad language, No Financial Advice only Opinions. Myself, Co Hosts & Speakers all Hold $FNMA $FMCC and can be prejudice to preferred in general 😂 Even Glen & Burry are welcome @michaeljburry xitter.cf/i/spaces/1nKOLQa…

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@pratjoey just a few simple points to reinforce what you're saying. 1. He literally just launched a new CEF and initiated new positions in F2 2. He cumulatively has 215 million shares between the two. We barely seen 215 million in aggregate volume in a quarter. Besides the fact that he has clearly taken actions to get more exposure to F2, it's simply impossible that he would have liquidated a position that large recently. The volumes are simply too small. People want to blame short sellers, people want to blame hedge funds for rug pulling, people want to blame government in action, but when you look at the volume, the cratering share price mostly has to do with small paper-handed investors.
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Hand of God retweeted
This is generally right; there's raw company share value based on fundamentals, which puts our share price at several multiples above where $FNMA and $FMCC sit right now. But there's still significant political risk baked into the price today because... well... priorities and political will and all. I'm a program manager, so I like to think of this trade in terms of net factored risk, where I can assign some squishy level of risk tolerance because some like @BillAckman have such a vested stake - but also has has lawyers combing daily (or once were) for the express purpose of continuing to hold this position. As a plebeian, I don't try to pretend I have proximity to the information he does, nor the legal resources. So I see this as something like "outsourcing" that work to someone who does have those resources. That works for me, because we are not re-treading the same grain. That works for Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) because the more of us who buy in and hold, the more value it creates for $PS in years to come. Back to net factored risk - in my view, I place Bill's steadfastness on the balance opposite the political risk, while recognizing that F2 (F3?) only make up ~3% of Pershing’s holdings, which means I invite more risk to my own portfolio while leveraging the legal and procedural prowess of others. In short, if Pershing sells, it'd be a significant signal to the many of us who expect Bill to stay true to his compass and hold these for the long-term assets dividends accrue. I might trim, but until they turn a conservatorship into a receivership, I'm here to stay.
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$FNMA $FMCC Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac shareholders listening to President @realDonaldTrump's remarks in Clarksville, Tennessee yesterday.
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Hand of God retweeted
Human societies have stripped away roughly a third of Earth's original forests over the last 10,000 years - a profound fall from an original 6 billion hectares to 4.14 billion today. Many would see this loss as a symbol of mankind's careless detachment from the world of nature. But it also reminds us of the planet's own dogged resilience and the survival of our carbon-based biology. While the world is still losing trees, the annual net rate of forest loss has reduced by around half since the 1990s, from 10.7 million hectares a year to roughly 4.12 million. This ecological wound is a reminder of our failure to live within Earth’s natural framework - a balance built on the emergence of biology from the oceans hundreds of millions of years ago. It's ironic that the ancient forests from the Carboniferous era provided us with the modern miracle of dense, instant energy from coal, oil and gas. These muscular hydrocarbons built the modern world and transformed human existence from nomadic to global. The transition from pre-industrial to modern times illustrates a massive shift in how humanity has altered the world's natural landscape, over which we claim to hold supremacy. Today, only 1.18 billion hectares of primary old-growth forest remain (as shown in old growth forest from Tasmania). This decline in the heritage of the forests sums up a cultural fracture with the natural world. Global forest loss is split almost evenly across two distinct eras: half occurred gradually between 8000 BCE and 1900 CE through early agriculture and burning wood; the other half was destroyed in just the last century, by rapid industrialisation, demographic expansion and commercial farming. In the 18th and 19th centuries, deforestation was concentrated in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Today, the Northern Hemisphere has stabilised it's forest growth, while the brunt of losses has shifted heavily to tropical rainforests in the Global South, like the decline of the Amazon rainforest. Other than the forests, the Earth’s remaining ecosystems have shown incredible resilience, largely despite us. Land ecosystems and the oceans have an ancient and natural life force of their own, which has softened our impact. From a purely biological standpoint, plant life thrives in elevated carbon environments, and the planet has weathered far higher concentrations in the more ancient past. Yet, we still deforested a third of the planet!
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