Father, husband, veteran. Invest early and often: spiritually, physically, emotionally, mentally, financially, and relationally.
ID.IT.UT.AK.CO.NM.FL | IRQ.AFG
Joined June 2013
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Every day I carry a copper coin in the pocket of my uniform.
Stamped across it are three Latin words: sic semper tyrannis — thus always to tyrants.
Life is crowded with things that demand our time, our attention, and our lives. Many of them feel urgent. Far fewer of them are actually important. We miss the important work not because we are lazy, but because we are busy putting out the next fire, answering the next email, finishing the next report.
This coin is a reminder: do not let the urgent become the tyrant over the important.
There will always be another briefing to give.
There will always be another email you could draft.
There will always be another task, another deadline, another pressing matter at work.
Those things are real. They matter in their place. But when they push out time with your spouse, your children, or the neighbor who could use a hand or a listening ear, you have lost the plot.
The urgent is a poor master. It never finishes. It never says “enough.” It will take everything you give it and still ask for more.
Kill the tyrant. Guard the relationships that actually last. Keep first things first.
Never let the urgent become the tyrant over the important.
Sobering to think we are creating the very thing we deny exists - some omniscient, omnipotent, omnipresent intelligence that might deem humanity worth "undoing" because we rebel against it.
马斯克在聊到超级智能到底会不会统治人类时，用短短 42 秒，彻底推翻了所有人看了几十年的科幻电影设定，
他说：我们根本不配被统治。
很多人对超级智能的终极恐惧，是终结者、黑客帝国，或者被一个冷酷的机器独裁者关进赛博牢笼里发号施令。
但马斯克点破了一个极度刺骨、但也极度通透的现实：
在任何一个智慧悬殊的系统里，统治本身就是一种毫无价值的高能耗浪费。
面对一个比人类聪明几千倍、甚至几百万倍的超级智能，我们妄想去控制它、给它立规矩，无异于痴人说梦。
但它反过来也不会对统治人类产生哪怕一秒钟的兴趣。
他拿人类和黑猩猩打了个极度清醒的比方：
人类比黑猩猩聪明得多，但我们今天会专门制定一套复杂的法律，去丛林里事无巨细地管理每一只黑猩猩吗？
不会。
我们基本是随它们去，在边上划一道保护区，只要它们不妨碍现代文明的扩张，人类甚至连看都懒得看它们一眼。
统治的前提，是双方还在同一个能力维度上，需要靠权力来分配稀缺资源。
当智力差距被拉大到百万倍的断层时，人类社会的金钱、领土、政治和意识形态，在超级智能眼里连微尘都算不上。
它有它自己要去探索的星辰大海和底层物理，根本不屑于在泥潭里当猴王。
人类未来真正的风险，从来不是被恶意统治，而是被系统性无视。
就像人类修高速公路穿过森林时，铲平一个蚁穴从来不是出于仇恨，只是因为那条路刚好要从那里经过。
所以，我们需要放下做宇宙主角的虚荣心，未来的超级智能既不会恨你，也不会爱管你，如何证明自己不是那条高速公路下的蚁穴，才是人类唯一要思考的课题。
Ecclesiastes 1:18, "For with much wisdom comes much sorrow; the more knowledge, the more grief."
This is a great audio/video summary of the @BillAckman Fannie and Freddie saga.
Ackman has increased his F2 holdings 5×, held through a drop to $0.35, a surge to $15+, and still see a 10× insight from current prices.
$FNMA $FMCC
Whatever you're doing right now, stop and tell a parent, spouse, friend, or child, "I love you."
It'll be a welcome interruption for you both.
This is a fantastic F2 idea for the Trump Administration that achieves multiple objectives:
1. Give the youth skin in the game—capitalist principles, leading by example—by letting them own shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through Trump accounts.
2. Unlock $400B of value for American taxpayers without delay or a bureaucratic middle layer (prior to the 2028 election).
3. Restore trust in the public markets by returning the GSEs to the NYSE, where they belong, functioning as the public utilities they are, regulated by FHFA.
4. Take off the table the political risk of AOC, Bernie, and Warren running these companies and using them to discriminate against a large segment of the population.
ruleoflawguy.substack.com/p/…
Hand of God retweeted
曾用2700万美元一个月狂赚26亿美元、创下100倍神话的华尔街传奇大佬比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman），前两天在CNBC放话：他手里有两只股票还能再涨10倍，是整个美股赔率最不对称的投资。
说的就是房利美（FNMA）和房地美（FMCC）。
很多人以为他是看特朗普上台才跑出来蹭热度，但去查美国证监会的13D档案，这笔仓位他已经死拿了13年：
2013年10月，他从1.54美元开始扫货，砸了4亿美元把两家公司买满近10%，房利美均价2.29美元，房地美均价2.14美元。
买进去就是十年寒冬。
2021年最高法院判股东败诉，单日暴跌32%；2022年底最低跌到0.35美元，账面浮亏85%。但他一股没卖，硬扛到今天。
他为什么死磕这两家公司？因为背后有一本极荒诞的账：
08年次贷危机两房被政府接管，财政部前后注资1914亿美元救命，拿走10%优先股和79.9%的普通股认股权证。
结果2012年两房恢复大赚后，政府突然修改协议搞“净值清扫”，把两房所有利润100%全部上交，且不算还本金。
到现在，两房累计上交了3010亿美元，比借的钱多还了一千多亿，但账面上反而还欠财政部3000多亿美元。
阿克曼赌的翻盘方案只有三步：
1. 财政部认账，承认已交的3010亿算还清优先股；
2. 政府行使认股权证，拿走79.9%普通股；
3. 直接让两房重返纽交所挂牌。
按他测算，这样政府能再赚3000亿美元，普通股每股能值45到50美元——对比现价4.21美元，正好是10倍。
但按4.21美元的现价倒推，市场给的成功概率其实只有7%左右。卡脖子的主要是三点：
一是财政部如果不肯注销那3000多亿优先股、而是直接债转股，老股东会被稀释殆尽；
二是一旦私有化削弱了政府兜底预期，债券买家要求更高利息，就会推高全美房贷利率，这是谁都不敢碰的政治红线；
三是必须在特朗普任期结束前完成，而下个月就是中期选举。
2块多的成本拿了13年，年化还不到5%。这到底是十倍黄金底，还是一张完全看政客脸色的期权？做了个7分钟的视频，把当年的建仓档案和这笔账完整理了一遍。
Hand of God retweeted
Here’s how sextortion works.
A predator gets an explicit image of a child, real or faked with AI, and uses it as a weapon. But not every predator wants the same thing, and what they want tells you which kind of sextortion it is:
•Sexually motivated: they want more images. It most often targets girls.
•Financially motivated: they want money. These predators often pose as a girl to get a teenage boy to send one image, then threaten to share it unless he pays.
•Sadistically motivated: they want to see a child suffer. They force kids to hurt themselves or others, and they record it.
No matter which kind it is, the predator is counting on your child’s silence. One conversation can break that.
Get the tools to start it: timtebowfoundation.org/while…
If you or someone you love is in crisis, call or text 988 anytime.
"True." | @BillAckman
My favorite 4 $fmcc $fnma quotes of the week:
1. “And the chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he’s made it very valuable in a short period of time, Bill Pulte. Bill, thank you, Bill.” | PRESIDENT TRUMP
2. “I believe the same as Bessent!” | BILL PULTE
3. "I would imagine that the next year, the year after, we will be tackling the ownership structure,” @SecScottBessent
4. “There’s no scenario in which these entities would be a threat to the market. I would argue mortgage spreads tighten..” | BILL ACKMAN
Ps-now it’s time to let America’s dream team focus on the midterm elections. 🇺🇸 Vote!
Hand of God retweeted
👍👍
“And then you’re going to have, I would say, a stupid amount of capital. There’s no scenario in which these entities would be a threat to the market.”
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have more than repaid taxpayers through dividends yet remain the only major bailout recipients still locked in conservatorship more than 18 years later. ProPublica’s tracker shows the GSEs received roughly $191.5 billion in draws and have returned well over $300 billion in dividends, producing a large net gain for the Treasury, while nearly every large bank and AIG repaid in full with profits and were released.
Companies that left taxpayers with permanent losses were allowed to restructure and operate freely. Keeping Fannie and Freddie under unique, indefinite government control after superior repayment is inconsistent and unwarranted.
Companies and what they still owe:
General Motors ~$11.3 billion
Wells Fargo ~3.4 billion
JP Morgan Chase ~3.2 billion
CalHFA ~2.4 billion
Bank of America ~2.3 billion
Check for yourself:
projects.propublica.org/bail…
CIT Group ~$2.3 billion
Chrysler ~$1.2 billion
Hand of God retweeted
"It's absolutely politically critical for Fannie and Freddie to be released from conservatorship before the end of the Trump administration."
@BillAckman is bullish on $FNMA and $FMCC – here's why:
cnbc.com/video/2026/10/22/bi…
@BillAckman on CNBC this morning, full transcript: (part 1)
Host: Speaking of disappointment in the short term, Fannie and Freddie have been a drag, and I know you’ve had high hopes that the Trump administration is going to finally make a move here to privatize. It’s taken longer than expected. I did get some comments from Secretary Bessent in a podcast this week saying, I think he said ’27 or ’28. They still want to go forward. “I would imagine next year or the year after we will be tackling the ownership structure.” Do you still have high conviction that this is going to happen? Are you still bullish?
Bill Ackman: Yes, very bullish. And actually, to point out, our relative underperformance this year in large part is driven by Fannie and Freddie. These are stocks that went from $3 to $15 or so last year and went from $15 to $3 this year. You know, they became fairly sizable positions. We own well north of 200 million shares combined of the companies. So this was a very big sort of headwind for us. Now, why did we hold it when the stock was up 5x? Because we again believe our view of what’s going to happen here.
Look, actually, what’s not talked about: it’s actually absolutely politically critical for Fannie and Freddie to be released from conservatorship before the end of the Trump administration. Why is that the case? Because this is an enormously cash-flow-generative asset that in the hands, for example, of a Democratic administration could be used in a manner that is politically very threatening to the Republican Party—the control of who gets access to mortgages. There were issues during the Biden administration where there were mortgages being granted to people on favorable terms because of skin color and other such initiatives. It’s a tool that can be used in a very political manner. So, having met with the administration about this topic, I think they view it as absolutely mission critical that they’re both released from conservatorship.
We’ve put forth a very straightforward plan that will get it done more efficiently. Actually, it’s really important that the stock is in the hands of institutional investors and is privatized to protect this from becoming a politically controlled asset. That is well understood at the highest levels of the Trump administration.
I think the administration toyed with some other alternative approaches to taking these companies public. There was an initiative, I understand, where Fannie and Freddie would be combined under a new holding company—I don’t know if you saw the tweet from the president about something called the Great American Mortgage Company—where Fannie and Freddie would stay in conservatorship and there would be this new holding company put on top. You know, it is not a viable structure. The simplest outcome here that creates the most value for the American taxpayer is just simply accounting for the $300 billion of payments that have been made by Fannie and Freddie to the Treasury, fully repaying the $191 billion that was advanced during the financial crisis, and then an uplisting to a major exchange like the New York Stock Exchange. And the president rings the bell, announces a major hundreds of billions of value creation for the American people, and then he tasks the Treasury Secretary and Director Pulte with resolving the conservatorship, which is a process of finalizing the capital rules.
$FNMA $FMCC
@CaliRefugee1, it sounds like @BillAckman is a few steps ahead of you.😊
"God forbid AOC gets control of these entities. That's not something the President would want to stomach as part of his legacy."
Full audio clip attached from 08/13/26 Spaces.
Great question from @hogfan7878 on the likelihood of inaction from DJT with Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac before his second term ends.
Shout out to @tom_juric for the reminder of this soundbite.
xitter.cf/calirefugee1/status/21…
Hand of God retweeted
True
There’s a huge political risk to inaction here. The administration keeps pointing out $FNMA and $FMCC are printing cash and worth a trillion dollars. If they do nothing and Democrats take back power in 2028, they’re literally leaving a massive war chest on the table for a liberal agenda. Regardless of Bessent’s risk aversion, moving soon is the only way to prevent the exact “waste, fraud, and abuse” they rail against.
Hand of God retweeted
Re Bessent: The short “no spin” version is that if you were supporting an exit from conservatorship, you wouldn’t keep framing mortgage spreads as an obstacle & questioning the benefits to homeowners /mtg holders. One positive is that he was forced to admit something may happen next year (or the year after)..also we have Trump/Pulte..
$FMCC $FNMA etc excerpts of prior info👇
