Father, husband, veteran. Invest early and often: spiritually, physically, emotionally, mentally, financially, and relationally.
ID.IT.UT.AK.CO.NM.FL | IRQ.AFG
Joined June 2013
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Default to "yes." Married 23 years, 5 children, and in full-time employment, my advice to young married couples is that you default to "yes to sex" unless there is a reason you shouldn't. We are at "more days than not" status today because we manage expectations - we do not look for "reasons for yes" in this area.
It's a matter of priorities and planning... and worth it.
Sobering to think we are creating the very thing we deny exists - some omniscient, omnipotent, omnipresent intelligence that might deem humanity worth "undoing" because we rebel against it.
马斯克在聊到超级智能到底会不会统治人类时，用短短 42 秒，彻底推翻了所有人看了几十年的科幻电影设定，
他说：我们根本不配被统治。
很多人对超级智能的终极恐惧，是终结者、黑客帝国，或者被一个冷酷的机器独裁者关进赛博牢笼里发号施令。
但马斯克点破了一个极度刺骨、但也极度通透的现实：
在任何一个智慧悬殊的系统里，统治本身就是一种毫无价值的高能耗浪费。
面对一个比人类聪明几千倍、甚至几百万倍的超级智能，我们妄想去控制它、给它立规矩，无异于痴人说梦。
但它反过来也不会对统治人类产生哪怕一秒钟的兴趣。
他拿人类和黑猩猩打了个极度清醒的比方：
人类比黑猩猩聪明得多，但我们今天会专门制定一套复杂的法律，去丛林里事无巨细地管理每一只黑猩猩吗？
不会。
我们基本是随它们去，在边上划一道保护区，只要它们不妨碍现代文明的扩张，人类甚至连看都懒得看它们一眼。
统治的前提，是双方还在同一个能力维度上，需要靠权力来分配稀缺资源。
当智力差距被拉大到百万倍的断层时，人类社会的金钱、领土、政治和意识形态，在超级智能眼里连微尘都算不上。
它有它自己要去探索的星辰大海和底层物理，根本不屑于在泥潭里当猴王。
人类未来真正的风险，从来不是被恶意统治，而是被系统性无视。
就像人类修高速公路穿过森林时，铲平一个蚁穴从来不是出于仇恨，只是因为那条路刚好要从那里经过。
所以，我们需要放下做宇宙主角的虚荣心，未来的超级智能既不会恨你，也不会爱管你，如何证明自己不是那条高速公路下的蚁穴，才是人类唯一要思考的课题。
Ecclesiastes 1:18, "For with much wisdom comes much sorrow; the more knowledge, the more grief."
One missing key point on the point of calculating odds based on "market sentiment" here is that they're still OTC so MANY institutional investors won't get in or aren't allowed in per policy restrictions.
Whatever you're doing right now, stop and tell a parent, spouse, friend, or child, "I love you."
It'll be a welcome interruption for you both.
@SecScottBessent, you have made clear that any GSE ownership restructuring will wait until 2027 or 2028 and will be guided solely by your North Star of preventing any widening in agency mortgage spreads over Treasuries. A new analysis (linked here) shows how a carefully structured recap/release can meet that priority while answering the persistent question of what the United States gains: Treasury would cancel its senior preferred stock as fully repaid, exercise its 79.9 percent warrants, and transfer the resulting common stake (potentially worth hundreds of billions) into a 501(c)(3) that distributes the shares ratably into tens of millions of Trump Accounts under the OBBB. The proposal is designed to fit within HERA’s existing sale authority, the temporary regulations already permitting qualified stock contributions, and formal findings that treat expanded youth asset ownership as valuable consideration, thereby reducing major-questions and appropriations risks. The recent D.C. Circuit decision in Fairholme affirming that the Net Worth Sweep (of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits) breached the implied covenant further supports treating the senior preferred as economically repaid rather than converting it in a way that would further dilute private shareholders. I urge you to read the full piece... it supplies a clear, administration-aligned path that protects the mortgage market while converting the GSEs’ value into a lasting investment in the next generation.
Please review here:
ruleoflawguy.substack.com/p/…
@BillAckman @pulte
This is a fantastic F2 idea for the Trump Administration that achieves multiple objectives:
1. Give the youth skin in the game—capitalist principles, leading by example—by letting them own shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through Trump accounts.
2. Unlock $400B of value for American taxpayers without delay or a bureaucratic middle layer (prior to the 2028 election).
3. Restore trust in the public markets by returning the GSEs to the NYSE, where they belong, functioning as the public utilities they are, regulated by FHFA.
4. Take off the table the political risk of AOC, Bernie, and Warren running these companies and using them to discriminate against a large segment of the population.
ruleoflawguy.substack.com/p/…
This is a great audio/video summary of the @BillAckman Fannie and Freddie saga.
Ackman has increased his F2 holdings 5×, held through a drop to $0.35, a surge to $15+, and still see a 10× insight from current prices.
$FNMA $FMCC
Hand of God retweeted
曾用2700万美元一个月狂赚26亿美元、创下100倍神话的华尔街传奇大佬比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman），前两天在CNBC放话：他手里有两只股票还能再涨10倍，是整个美股赔率最不对称的投资。
说的就是房利美（FNMA）和房地美（FMCC）。
很多人以为他是看特朗普上台才跑出来蹭热度，但去查美国证监会的13D档案，这笔仓位他已经死拿了13年：
2013年10月，他从1.54美元开始扫货，砸了4亿美元把两家公司买满近10%，房利美均价2.29美元，房地美均价2.14美元。
买进去就是十年寒冬。
2021年最高法院判股东败诉，单日暴跌32%；2022年底最低跌到0.35美元，账面浮亏85%。但他一股没卖，硬扛到今天。
他为什么死磕这两家公司？因为背后有一本极荒诞的账：
08年次贷危机两房被政府接管，财政部前后注资1914亿美元救命，拿走10%优先股和79.9%的普通股认股权证。
结果2012年两房恢复大赚后，政府突然修改协议搞“净值清扫”，把两房所有利润100%全部上交，且不算还本金。
到现在，两房累计上交了3010亿美元，比借的钱多还了一千多亿，但账面上反而还欠财政部3000多亿美元。
阿克曼赌的翻盘方案只有三步：
1. 财政部认账，承认已交的3010亿算还清优先股；
2. 政府行使认股权证，拿走79.9%普通股；
3. 直接让两房重返纽交所挂牌。
按他测算，这样政府能再赚3000亿美元，普通股每股能值45到50美元——对比现价4.21美元，正好是10倍。
但按4.21美元的现价倒推，市场给的成功概率其实只有7%左右。卡脖子的主要是三点：
一是财政部如果不肯注销那3000多亿优先股、而是直接债转股，老股东会被稀释殆尽；
二是一旦私有化削弱了政府兜底预期，债券买家要求更高利息，就会推高全美房贷利率，这是谁都不敢碰的政治红线；
三是必须在特朗普任期结束前完成，而下个月就是中期选举。
2块多的成本拿了13年，年化还不到5%。这到底是十倍黄金底，还是一张完全看政客脸色的期权？做了个7分钟的视频，把当年的建仓档案和这笔账完整理了一遍。
Hand of God retweeted
Here’s how sextortion works.
A predator gets an explicit image of a child, real or faked with AI, and uses it as a weapon. But not every predator wants the same thing, and what they want tells you which kind of sextortion it is:
•Sexually motivated: they want more images. It most often targets girls.
•Financially motivated: they want money. These predators often pose as a girl to get a teenage boy to send one image, then threaten to share it unless he pays.
•Sadistically motivated: they want to see a child suffer. They force kids to hurt themselves or others, and they record it.
No matter which kind it is, the predator is counting on your child’s silence. One conversation can break that.
Get the tools to start it: timtebowfoundation.org/while…
If you or someone you love is in crisis, call or text 988 anytime.
"True." | @BillAckman
My favorite 4 $fmcc $fnma quotes of the week:
1. “And the chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he’s made it very valuable in a short period of time, Bill Pulte. Bill, thank you, Bill.” | PRESIDENT TRUMP
2. “I believe the same as Bessent!” | BILL PULTE
3. "I would imagine that the next year, the year after, we will be tackling the ownership structure,” @SecScottBessent
4. “There’s no scenario in which these entities would be a threat to the market. I would argue mortgage spreads tighten..” | BILL ACKMAN
Ps-now it’s time to let America’s dream team focus on the midterm elections. 🇺🇸 Vote!
Hand of God retweeted
👍👍
“And then you’re going to have, I would say, a stupid amount of capital. There’s no scenario in which these entities would be a threat to the market.”
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have more than repaid taxpayers through dividends yet remain the only major bailout recipients still locked in conservatorship more than 18 years later. ProPublica’s tracker shows the GSEs received roughly $191.5 billion in draws and have returned well over $300 billion in dividends, producing a large net gain for the Treasury, while nearly every large bank and AIG repaid in full with profits and were released.
Companies that left taxpayers with permanent losses were allowed to restructure and operate freely. Keeping Fannie and Freddie under unique, indefinite government control after superior repayment is inconsistent and unwarranted.
Companies and what they still owe:
General Motors ~$11.3 billion
Wells Fargo ~3.4 billion
JP Morgan Chase ~3.2 billion
CalHFA ~2.4 billion
Bank of America ~2.3 billion
Check for yourself:
projects.propublica.org/bail…
CIT Group ~$2.3 billion
Chrysler ~$1.2 billion
