An engineer writing about current events in Africa with systems thinking. Look for patterns & failure modes then predictive analytics. Retweets # endorsements.

Minneapolis, MN
Joined June 2009
This one from @HShPrez2Ware 👇
Agree wholeheartedly! I have said elsewhere that 1969-1975 are probably the best years in our history!
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It is time for all anybody but HSM to come together, show some courage and initiate the process of forming a government for #Somalia. HSM is not legitimate entity to part of any election of sort let alone organize it.
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I wonder if reconciliations of communities in active civil war cross this fellow’s mind? He is talking about the HSM fake war on Al Shabaab. The way to defeat Al Shabaab is reconciliation and building peace among warring clans in Mudug and Galgaduud. Al Shabaab thrives in an active civil war zone and it looks like HSM’s handpick man inn Dhuusamareeb is going to be a continuation of going disaster.
“A STERN #DECISION: Anyone who communicates with Al-Shabaab shall not live among us, regardless of their #rank. #Elders, relatives, and anyone else maintaining contact with these men must cease all phone #communications with them.” — Libaan Ahmed Hassan, the new President of #Galmudug.
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I’m old enough to remember when even remotely criticizing the state of #Israel was a politically blasphemous #American politics. Even the remote suggestion or accusation of criticizing Israel used to be considered a carnal sin and immediately ended promising political careers. America has come a long way on its views about Israel. Abdul El-Seyad masterfully articulated the current attitude in American politics about the state of Israel. Notice he is not even being criticized for his views on Israel by Republicans. Instead they want to focus on his ethnicity in attempt to defeat him. If this guy pulls out a victory in the #Michigan senate race, there is a seismic shift in America about the state of Israel and everyone seems to be recognizing it. The only folks who haven’t recognized is a small group of separatists in Northern #Somalia who are trying to split a country. ‼️🔥 #usa #israel #palestine #iran #politics #cong... youtube.com/shorts/NxR-kWCs9… via @YouTube
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We demand that the Turkish government immediately cease all air operations against civilians in Southwest State and respect Somalia's sovereignty.
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Then work through the countries on the water shores and cooperate. It is the notion that Ethiopia needs sovereign port which means desire to grab another country’s land and that’s freaking people out and leading to tensions.
⚡️Ethiopia: The Red Sea Security Cannot Be Limited to Coastal States Ethiopia’s intelligence chief, Redwan Hussein, has argued that securing the Red Sea should not be the sole responsibility of countries bordering its shores, saying #Ethiopia also has a stake in addressing threats that could disrupt its trade and economic development.
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Jamal Abdulahi retweeted
Who wants to tell Somaliland that they dont get a vote? Amazing what Israeli recognition and an Emirati military base will get you in return...the political endoresement of a non-state. Quite a bargain. thecradle.co/articles/somali…
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Interesting
Historic: Carney becomes the first ever head of Canadian government to visit Nato ally Turkey He visited Ataturk’s mausoleum per protocol
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#Israel’s objectives for the recognition of “Somaliland” were two: 1)Proximity to Yemen 2)Destination to expel survivors of #GazaGenocide survivors The piece added less sure item in which Israelis brought up multiple times. That’s the issue of fresh water. Israel gets significant quantities of its fresh water from desalination process. It is clear how Israel’s foray into northern Somalia helps to address the shortage of fresh water inside Israel.
My take on Israel's interest in Somaliland: “I don’t think that the Israelis are just trying to support nascent democratic states in Africa. They are pursuing a set of very hard security interests.” csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2…
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Longer read of what I have been highlighting below. It is time for Somalis go beyond the personal demonization of Siad Barre by armed groups and few individuals who built careers criticizing him. The focus should be to sort out 21 years of military rule with two categories of lessons: 1)Do’s-things that worked and should be repeated at a mass scale. 2)Don’s-things that did not work and should never be repeated. For longer read, check this out 👇
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There are many lessons to draw from 21 years (1969-1991) of military rule in #Somalia. This period of Somalia’s history has been misconstrued by rebels who bared arms against the regime and few individuals who built careers criticizing it. At some point, Somalis have to go beyond Siad Barre demonization and create two categories of lessons. 1)Do’s-things that worked and should be repeated at a mass scale. 2)Don’s-things that did not work and should never be repeated. The two groups who have dominated this period of Somali history only offered personal demonization of Siad Barre. That may serve their agenda. But the rest of Somalis should come forward with their own stories during the military revolution that ruled Somalia for 21 years.
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The parliament the army dissolved was not legitimate. The 1967 election was dubbed “wood qasaaray” by many because corruption was so rampant in the just-concluded elections prior to the coup. Nearly 60 percent of the seats in parliament were mired in dispute or tied up in litigation with the compromised court system. President Abdirashid was assassinated in very dubious circumstances. The army moved in and put an end to widespread corruption followed by 10 years of spectacular development. The Somali language was written and literacy rate skyrocketed. Nearly 150,000 people were evacuated after a devastating drought struck in the north, central and parts of Somali region in Ethiopia in just 19 days, a remarkable accomplishment for small country. Factories producing food were built making Somalia a net exporter. Ever heard of Somali Fruit Corporation exporting best bananas in the world? Sugar factories in Balcad and Mareeray as well as fish factories in Barawe & Lasqoray and meat factories in Kismayo are good examples. The Wagambo farming rice project in Jowhar was among the promising projects to make Somalia food-secure. The cement factory outside of Berbera was among 65 factories built and made operational within 10 years. The Shalanbood Bacaad Celin project something many said could not be done, was accomplished with volunteer labor organized by the state. Siad Bare made two vital mistakes: 1)Hastily went to war with Ethiopia 2) He overstayed power The hastily decided war ruined the army’s reputation & effectiveness and led to Ethiopia to support clan base armed groups. Said Barre failed to let go of power and sad turned what was left of the army to repel against clan base armed groups backed by Ethiopia. Democracy is a terrific concept but requires honest leadership which Somalia lacked in the 1967 elections hence the “wood qasaaray” declaration by many. The Somali army was spot on to step in and end corruption earning tremendous public support. I’m certain many in the Somali public will welcome an effective army to put the current misery to an end. But the army made the vital mistakes of overstaying power and starting a regrettable war with a neighboring country.
October 21, 1969, represents a pivotal & dark moment in Somalia’s history, where democracy was supplanted by dictatorship. On that October morning, Siad Barre in his coup d’état dramatically altered Somalia’s course beginning with the detention of prominent political figures followed by the suspension of the Constitution & the closure of the National Assembly. In the upheaval, all political parties were banned & the supreme courts were abolished, marking a decisive break from the established order. Barre’s usurpation of power dismantled the emerging democracy, replacing it with a regime characterized by oppression and the breakdown of the rule of law. His ruthless dictatorship not only crushed civil freedoms but also set Somalia on a disastrous path toward state collapse, leaving a legacy of turmoil, humiliation, and suffering.
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The fog of war between #Ethiopia and #Eritrea dramatized as imminent in the last several years seemed to be replaced by a seesaw civil war mostly inside Ethiopia. Few weeks ago, most reports were consistently streaming Ethiopia National Defense Forces(ENDF) moving with spectacular speed through Tigray region culminating with capture of regional capital Mekelle. This news was replaced by mostly citizen journalists and local media fortune reversal. ENDF moving with rapid pace through Tigray has been replaced with retreats from some towns and villages to regroup. TPLF rebels had been posting about ambushes and large columns of purported ENDF personnel surrendering. The Amhara militia Fano, who are closer to the capital Addis Ababa,has been posting about towns and villages changing controls as well as columns of purported ENDF surrendering. The reports from Tigray and Amhara region paint classical civil war where rebels and fatigued army are seesaw motion for territory control. Eritrea just told the US that there is no crisis with Ethiopia suggesting the two countries are only engaging fog of war.
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Jamal Abdulahi retweeted
#Video_News:- Eritrea tells US there is no “crisis” between Ethiopia and Eritrea watch
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Excellent question with multilayer and context is important. HSM showed Somalis that he was worst person to occupy Villa Somalia in his 2012-2017 stint. Somalis took note and sent him packing. From 2017-2021, HSM had no money, controlled no territory and no militia. He was just bad mouth with a microphone. The anti-Somalia forces led by Deni, Ahmed Madoobe and reinforced by Halane crowd converged to bring HSM back to Villa Somalia. In addition to the aforementioned characters, HSM was enabled by many in this platform. I’m looking from the leading active users of this platform to apologize to the Somali people and at least own their error in thought process and erroneous conclusions. @hodansomali @AnalystSomalia @alihwarsame @AwHirsiSO @faisalroble19 @RAbdiAnalyst @GaroweOnline @Aynte
Today, we are confronted with that reality: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud II sits in Villa Somalia without a legitimate mandate, challenging the status quo—the federal system, the corrupt electoral process that used to take place once every four years, the so-called 4.5 power-sharing formula, and the Constitution.👇 somalistream.com/whose-fault…
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You can’t argue with this. “#Somalia has no government”
Trump on Somalia: Somalia is a real shithouse, okay? It's not even a country.
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The Ethiopia-UAE (Sharjah) Trade and Investment Forum opened today in Addis Ababa under the theme “Fostering New Partnerships and Driving the Future Together,” bringing together 19 Emirati delegates representing 10 companies and more than 140 Ethiopian business representatives. In his keynote address, State Minister of Industry, Hassan Mohammed, highlighted Ethiopia’s natural resources, youthful workforce and competitive labor costs, inviting Emirati businesses to invest in local manufacturing and build mutually beneficial industrial partnerships. Ambassador Dewano Kedir, Director General of Middle East, Asia and Pacific Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, underscored the strategic partnership between Ethiopia and the United Arab emirates (UAE). He noted that, under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, both nations continue to share a strong commitment to expanding private-sector partnerships and driving mutual prosperity. Ambassador Dewano encouraged the delegation to use trade as a gateway to manufacturing and long-term investment. Chairman of the Sharjah Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Abdulla Sultan Al Owais, on his part, highlighted the strong economic growth, diversification, and market expansion linking the two countries, emphasizing the importance of further strengthening trade and investment ties between Ethiopia and the UAE. The forum featured discussions on bilateral opportunities in agriculture, agribusiness and food security. It concluded with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce and Sectoral Association and the Sharjah Chamber of Commerce and Industry to advance future economic cooperation.
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Israel’s lack of visibility in Hargeisa is not due to pressure from rivals such as Turkey or resource constraints as in not able to fund operational goals. It is rather one of risk reduction and efficiency. The absence of #Israel visibility in Hargeisa is tactical and it is to avoid potentially triggering local uprising. The Somali culture does not embrace Zionism despite the highly produced and edited clips from organized events in Hargeisa broadcasted to the world. Images of small but jubilant crowds do not reflect the masses opinion in northern Somalia. An uprising against separatist regime in Hargeisa can emerge by wide spread Israel visibility in Hargeisa. Even few hundred Israeli military advisers brought to Hargeisa to train separatist militias had gone hiding despite African skin tone. Israel knows full well the separatist regime in Hargeisa is fragile and lacks political maturity to manage public anger. So Israel had shifted operation to coordinate its activities to confront Turkey’s activities in Somalia to Nairobi, #Kenya. Israel maintains the largest embassy measured by number of staff by any country in Kenya. IDF personnel are playing a leading role in the ongoing restructuring of KDF including the addition of new Marine Division advertised as anti-terror task force by UK and US who are footing the bill. A synergy and piggyback of traditional allies like UK and US as the situation in Kenya is more aligned with Israel’s approach to geopolitics rather than building states from scratch as it would required in northern Somalia. Israel’s portfolio to confront Turkey in Somalia is largely being handled through its Nairobi embassy at the moment. Thus the absence of Israel visibility in Somalia is tactical and Nairobi has become alternative operational hub to Hargeisa. Israel is not facing road block by rivals in Somalia nor is it resource constraint.
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In a map presumably used during a presentation to get Trump start Iran war, Netanyahu acknowledged NE state of Somalia, significantly reducing separatist “Somaliland” control territory. If HSM moved to recognize Awdal state, it will reduce separatist territorial claims further and solidify the point that secessionism is a single clan project. On the flip side and you can’t make this up: Netanyahu labels Puntland as Israel friendly. Another dark spot in Deni’s tenure. The map is purportedly obtained and distributed by Turkey intelligence.
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